my thoughts and bets for day two at aintree

[ganjaman2]

my thoughts and bets for day 2 at aintree








2.00 TANGLE TEASER TOP NOVICES’ HURDLE


The Top Novices’ Hurdle isn’t the strongest of races from a trends perspective but it still usually pays not to look too far beyond the obvious. Providing the ground doesn’t turn testing therefore blunting the speed of the ex-Flat horses, I do respect ex-Flat horses a lot more here than for Supreme Novices’ Hurdle to come out on top on this speed-favouring, flat, sharp track as they have won seven of the last nine renewals. Ex Flat horses are Agent Archie, North Cape, Prospect Wells, Right Step, Seventh Sky, Toughness Danon and Vulcanite.


There should be no surprise that the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle has been the best guide. In fact, six of the last eight winners ran in the Supreme with five running highly creditably notching up a top-six finish whereas the other winner of this prize of that sextet to contest the Supreme that did not post a top-six finish exited at the first flight in the traditional Cheltenham Festival curtain-raiser. Darlan (2nd), Prospect Wells (5th) and Vulcanite (10th) and Agent Archie (12th) contested the Supreme. Darlan also won the EBF Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in December which is the only other race to have featured more than one winner of the Top Novices’ Hurdle in the last ten years.
The Top Novices’ Hurdle is usually a race in which punters can attack with some confidence as the first four in the betting have performed very well having won 16 of the last 21 renewals, and 11 of the last 15 winners won or finished second last time out (the four to miss out ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) so it should be okay to oppose all horses not to make the first two on their most recent start outside of that Grade 1 race at the Festival. In other words, Absolutely Fantastic, Seventh Sky and the hurdling debutant, Toughness Danon, (won a German Group 3 on the Flat in 2009) are not for me.


The Irish have struggled winning just twice since 1977 though, in fairness, they don’t attack this race with vigour and Absolutely Fantastic is their only runner this season.


SHORT LIST


DARLAN


PROSPECT WELLS


VULCANITE


CONCLUSION


DARLAN fans should be pleased to know that three Supreme runners-up since 1991 gained compensation here, two of which were owned by J P McManus (Joe Mac and Straw Bear) as was this year’s Supreme second who many felt before Cheltenham was a flat-track horse so his chance would be obvious. Many also felt that Darlan didn’t receive McCoy’s best ever ride as maybe he was given too much to do and also took a wider route than most but I felt the winner won with something in hand. The winner, however, isn’t here so Darlan should be a deserving favourite in a race where the market principals tend to dominate. Darlan may not be a Flat bred, but he did win the EBF Hurdle at Cheltenham earlier in the season which has been a decent guide of late so he just edges it on trends for me over PROSPECT WELLS who was just behind him at Cheltenham. Being an ex Flat horse that finished in the top six in the Supreme, I am certainly not putting anyone off the Nicholls representative but I do like the record of the Supreme runner-up when they run in this race. VULCANITE ran better than his finishing position of tenth in the Supreme suggests and this classy ex Flat horse is likely to enjoy this flat track more so I would rate him as the most likely threat to the probable big two.


2.30 JOHN SMITH’S MILDMAY NOVICES’ CHASE


Disappointing numbers-wise with just five runners which is most unusual for this race and that makes me nervous whether the strong trends will hold up as well as we are not comparing like with like as much. Normally a strong trends race kicking off with the fact that 28 of the last 30 winners were dual winners over fences at the very least which is a big stat when you think about it and one which Silviniaco Conti and Yes Tom fail to qualify on with just one success over fences each.


Another very strong pattern is that 19 of the last 21 winners had won over at least three miles which is another stat against Silviniaco Conti plus the Dipper Chase 1-2, Champion Court and Solix. It shouldn’t be forgotten that the Mildmay Novices’ Chase is a longer race than the RSA Chase hence why the proven stamina angle is so strong especially as they usually go a proper gallop in this race.
Only two of the last ten winners failed to run at the previous month’s Cheltenham Festival. Of the declared quintet, Silviniaco Conti and Yes Tom both missed Cheltenham whereas Champion Court was a fine second in the Jewson with Solix a bit disappointing back in sixth. As you might expect the RSA Chase has been the best recent guide featuring five of the last seven winners so that is a positive for Join Together and his being pulled up in the RSA is no disaster as he was saved a really hard race. Only two horses have ever won the RSA and this race so it is often the case that a horse which had a less arduous run in the RSA is favoured as they still have plenty to give.
Paul Nicholls has supplied two winners and three placed horses in recent seasons and although he is not a trends horse, Silviniaco Conti looks to be the stable number one over Join Together on jockey bookings. Nicky Henderson just edges it overall though with three winners though he does have around a 16-year head start. Solix represents him here.


SHORT LIST


JOIN TOGETHER


(SOLIX)


CONCLUSION


He may be the stable second string on jockey bookings but JOIN TOGETHER meets the stats far better than Silviniaco Conti and he would be the clear trends pick as he ran in the best guide, has won twice or more over fences and has crucially proved his stamina. Just five runners though means they may not go the usual gallop for this race, in which case, I hope Daryl Jacob makes a lot more use of his stamina than Ruby Walsh did in the RSA Chase. The extra ease in the ground here will also suit him better than at Cheltenham. None of the other four meet the trends criteria but SOLIX just edges it over Champion Court for the second place on the short list given his trainer’s excellent record in the race. Also, unlike Champion Court, he hasn’t tried 3m yet so we don’t know he doesn’t stay whereas Champion Court’s stamina appeared to run out behind Join Together over this trip in December, though he has improved significantly since then. Judging by the way Solix won by 12 lengths over 2m6f at Ascot where he was going on best at the finish, I actually believe he will improve for this step up to 3m+ for the first time.


3.05 JOHN SMITH’S MELLING CHASE


Since this race was first run back in 1991, only three winners had not previously won a Grade 1 race, the last being 11 years ago when Fadalko was successful which is enough to put me off Poquelin (0-4 in Grade 1 races) and Pure Faith.


I am also against horses yet to win over 2m4f as only four of the 21 winners had not won over at least that trip including two odds-on favourites. Hard to argue that Forpadydeplasterer does not stay this far but he has not won beyond 2m2f and he is just hard to win these days being 0-13 since winning the Arkle in 2008 including a second place finish in this race to Albertas Run two years ago.


The Queen Mother Champion Chase won by Finian’s Rainbow (Wishfull Thinking fell in the early stages) used to be the pivotal guide but although 10 of the last 17 winners had finished in the first three there, the Ryanair Chase, which didn’t exist for the first ten of those runnings, is starting to take over as the number one guide having supplied four of the last six winners. Albertas Run was as game as ever when finishing second in last month’s Ryanair where he should hold Forpadydeplasterer (6th) and Kalahari King (9th) again.
The Tingle Creek Chase in which Kauto Stone finished second would be the other big guide during the same season with eight of the last 16 winners contesting the first significant Grade 1 two-mile chase of the season and he also contested the Ascot Chase (though finished last) which has featured two of the last five winners.


In 2009, Voy Por Ustedes continued the terrific record of previous Melling winners becoming the fifth horse since the race’s inception in 1991 to record successive victories but sadly the serious injury sustained by Master Minded in his last race means he will not be able to defend his title. The 2010 winner, Albertas Run, takes his chance but note that no horse beaten in the previous year’s Melling Chase has ever come back and won it 12 months later and he was second last year (Kalahari King pulled up).


Albertas Run certainly fits the pattern, however, in that 15 of the 21 winners had won or been placed at the Grand National meeting before (he has won at this meeting twice and been placed three times) as does Finian’s Rainbow who won the Maghull Novices’ Chase last year, a race also won by Kalahari King in 2009. Forpadydeplasterer has finished second in this race before and Wishfull Thinking won last season’s Manifesto Novices’ Chase with significant ease.


Only Voy Por Ustedes and Blazing Walker in the inaugural 1991 running have won this race for those aged seven or younger who are a combined 2-26 so the six-year-old, Kauto Stone, has it to do on those stats.


It is also worth noting that the market has been a very strong guide as there have been just five winners priced at bigger than 9/2 since 1994 (12 of the last 17 winners started in the first two in the betting). In terms of running style, no horse has ever managed to make all which could count against Wishfull Thinking if he employs those tactics again. But his best run this season was when held up at Kempton so who knows what they try this time?


SHORT LIST


FINIAN’S RAINBOW


WISHFULL THINKING


ALBERTAS RUN


CONCLUSION


The only thing stopping ALBERTAS RUN topping the trends list is that no horse beaten in this race 12 months earlier has won (though a repeat of his second to Master Minded last year could easily be good enough this time) but he has won this race before and he has never been out of the first three in five runs at this meeting so he holds his form well in April and has had an easier campaign this time so should be fresh. The record of the Champion Chaser when running here reads four wins and three seconds from ten attempts so FINIAN’S RAINBOW has strong credentials especially considering he has already proven that he stays this far. The Champion Chase and this race were always the plan for him after he won the Maghull here last year. He has taken a while to reach the top (a nine-year-old now) but he is still improving. WISHFULL THINKING fell early on in the Champion Chase continuing his poor season but he is a Grade 1 winner that stays this far and he has impressed in victory at this meeting before so, if there is to be a surprise winner, he makes most appeal in that respect.


3.40 JOHN SMITH’S TOPHAM CHASE


The Topham is a handicap where it has paid to ditch horses aged 11+ as they have an appalling record in the race, being 0-91 stretching back to 1993. On that basis, I can’t support Always Waining for a third straight year in this race or Sunday City, Moon Over Miami, Nikola or Massini Sunset.


The big positive stat concerns prominently-ridden horses as just one of the last 32 winners was not in firing line or right on their tails at the half-way stage. Trying to guess who will lead is tricky as connections know the value of racing prominently so more will try than usual so this is something for in-running bettors to consider. Frankie Figg will surely be in the firing line though as will Apt Approach.
Nicky Henderson, Philip Hobbs and Peter Bowen have won this race two, two and three times respectively so are to be respected. Henderson runs Giorgio Quercus and Bai Zhu, Hobbs relies solely on Chance Du Roy whilst Bowen runs Always Waining again in addition to Rio Gael and Sunday City.


The leading Irish trainer by some way is Willie Mullins who supplied last season’s third and won this race in 2002 with It’s Time For A Win. His overall record of a winner, two seconds, two thirds, a fourth and a fifth in the last ten years takes the eye so his bold jumping Apt Approach is a fascinating contender. The Irish supplied five of the first seven home two years ago so this is a race they are now targeting more and more and they also run Gonebeyondrecall (Noel Glynn), Arlow Ger (Paul Nolan) and Paradis De Thaix (Jessica Harrington).
In common with the Grand National, previous experience of these obstacles is an advantage for the Topham as seven of the last eight winners had also run over these spruce-filled obstacles at some point earlier in their career. The previous season’s Topham has been the big guide of late as five of the last eight winners ran in last year’s renewal with four placing. Last season’s winner, Always Waining, is back again going for the hat-trick but the fourth, Gonebeyondrecall, is back for another attempt as is the sixth, Frankie Figg, who has won over these fences before when winning the Grand Sefton in 2010.


The Byrne Group Plate at the Cheltenham Festival is the other major guide as the winner has featured in six of the last 17 Topham Chase winners’ profiles. That said, it is not a strong guide as a few years ago as three of those six winners were between 1995-1999. Contenders from that Festival handicap are Tartak (5th), Matuhi (13th), Giorgio Quercus (14th). Also note the Grand Sefton Chase as that has featured three of the last eight winners and contenders from this season’s race are Frankie Figg (6th) and Nikola (pulled up).
Lightly-campaigned horses have fared nowhere near as well as those which have been kept relatively busy as of the last 19 winners as many as 13 had already run at least seven times earlier in the season. That would put me off the seasonal debutant Herecomesthetruth as well as Aimigayle with just two runs behind her this season. Gonebeyondrecall and Fistral Beach are the only contenders with less three runs to their name this season.


Triangular, Rio Gael and Montoya’s Son wouldn’t be for me for being too young. French-breds under eight are developed enough to deal with this test but not young horses bred in Britain and Ireland and we have to go back to 1985 to find the last winner aged under eight that wasn’t a French-bred.


SHORT LIST


GONEBEYONDRECALL


FRANKIE FIGG


APT APPROACH


GIORGIO QUERCUS


CONCLUSION


Given the superb record of top four finishers from the previous season’s renewal, then GONEBEYONDRECALL has to appear on the shortlist. Three runs this season wouldn’t fit the busy pattern of previous winners earlier in the season but I believe his fourth placing in last year’s race more than compensates for that. Seven of the last eight winners had run in a race over these fences before and there are surpisingly few qualifiers on that score in this year’s race so that increases his chance as it does for FRANKIE FIGG who was won a Grand Sefton in 2010 and was sixth in this year’s renewal when heavy ground bogged him down. A free-wheeling front runner, the better the ground, the better his chance and he was also in the process of running two massive races over these fences until falling. Significantly, Walsh rides him for the first time over the Grand National fences. Being a bold jumping individual that loves racing prominently and hailing from a yard with an excellent record in the race that likes to throw a class act at this prize, I like the chances of APT APPROACH most of those without previous experience of these fences. He was disappointing in a Grade 2 last time but there is Rubi Light in this field to run them ragged and I think his class can see him run a big race and hit the frame. The Byrne Group Plate has been the best guide and maybe GIORGIO QUERCUS can prove best of their three runners for the Henderson team with two Tophams locked away in the cupboard already. He may have been well beaten in the Plate but so have other Topham winners.


4.15 JOHN SMITH’S SEFTON NOVICES’ HURDLE


In a complete turnaround, I would now argue that this is the weakest of the novice hurdles at this three-day meeting. For example, the last two winners had not won at least twice over hurdles whereas the previous 16 winners had. Maybe give it one more year? If so, horses that haven’t won at least twice over timber are Ballyrock (but he represents last season’s winning stable that broke this trend), Forgotten Gold, Hawkes Point and Netminder. I used to argue that the more wins over hurdles the better as what we want is a real tough nut for this race that stands it racing well and seven of those winners had won at least four times over hurdles in their winning year.


The other big stat that the last two winners overcame were that they had not entered this race off the back of at least four hurdling starts unlike 16 of the previous 17 winners and almost half of those winners raced far more significantly than just four times over timber. The only horse with less than three hurdling starts is the Challow Hurdle runner-up, Ballyrock.


Although six of the last 14 winners took part at the Cheltenham Festival, I would have expected that figure to be higher and the last four Sefton winners all gave it a wide berth. In fact, the 1-2 for the last four seasons all missed the Cheltenham Festival. None of the first three in the Neptune (Simonsig, Felix Yonger or Monksland) take their chance which is just as well as the last 15 win-or-placed horses to run in that 2m5f event have been beaten here over 3m. That said, I reckon Cotton Mill would probably have finished second but for his fall two out.


As for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle which would be the obvious guide, two of the seven runnings of the Sefton have been won by contenders from that event won by Brindisi Breeze since it was introduced into the Festival. The winner doesn’t take his chance but Lovcen (4th) does and also Ipsos Du Beralis (pulled up) who is classy but lazy and first-time blinkers make him interesting. The best guide hasn’t been a Cheltenham Festival event but the Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock in January having featured four of the last 11 winners. Harry Topper (2nd) was no match for Brindisi Breeze but that form was seriously franked at Cheltenham of course. He is only a five-year-old though and their record isn’t good.


We have to respect the Irish and especially those that bypassed Cheltenham like Sackville and Asian Maze. Ipsos Du Berlais (pulled up in Albert Bartlett but prefers softer ground than on that occasion) and Catcherinscratcher (bypassed Cheltenham) represent them this time.
Another stat last year’s winner overcame was that he had not won over three miles before (11 of the last 18 winners have done so). That isn’t a huge stat so I would rather treat it as a positive if a horse has won over 3m rather than a negative if your fancy has not. I take the view that stronger stamina levels are to be found in older horses so I am not surprised at how poorly younger novices have fared here. Since the race was inaugurated in 1988, five-year-olds have found life tough winning just three times which is a negative for Aikideau, Cotton Mill, Harry Topper and Tap Night.


SHORT LIST


KNOCK A HAND


FINGAL BAY


GOLDEN CALL


MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW


CONCLUSION


FINGAL BAY was ante-post favourite for the Neptune at Cheltenham before injury ruled him out and is a deserving market leader given that he is unbeaten and beat Simonsig in a Grade 2 before Christmas before following up in a Grade 1. The niggle is the 3m trip as he has not tried it before but he looks for all the world a top class three-mile chaser in the making so I doubt if he gets beat it that it will be down to lack of stamina. Sticking with the missing the Cheltenham Festival theme like the last four winners, GOLDEN CALL also makes appeal as staying is his forte as witnessed by his last two wins over three miles at Bangor for Donald McCain and he is not to be underestimated. KNOCK A HAND is chasing a five-timer and bypassed a couple of options at Cheltenham for this race. Proven in big fields, over 3m and on soft or decent ground, he just keeps on winning and such horses can be difficult to evaluate just how good they are. He beat Gullinbursti last time who would also be short list material if he runs but he was declared to run here on Thursday. MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW has won three of his five hurdles starts and is proven over three miles and handles a good cut in the ground so he has to be of interest stepping up in grade for Evan Williams.


4.50 JOHN SMITH’S DAILY MIRROR PUNTERS CLUB HANDICAP HURDLE


This is the 2m4f handicap hurdle that has had a name change since the Aintree & Punchestown Festivals Betting Guide was published and moved to Day 2 and can be found on pages 31-33.


There have been 23 runnings of this race to date of which 19 winners had won earlier in the season (interestingly two of the four that were not were owned by J P McManus who has owned five of the last 14 runners and his representative is It’s A Gimme) and 11 had run at the Cheltenham Festival. Nine of the 22 declarations have yet to win this season; I’m So Lucky, Saphir River, Orsippus, Robinson Collonges, Act Of Kalanisi, Dare Me, Like Minded, Art Professor and Ski Sunday.


Of those 11 Festival winners, the Coral Cup has been the best guide with six wins which is a very decent record as it wasn’t founded until 1993 though only two of those six winners have been in the last ten years. Coral Cup representatives are Dare Me (10th), Act Of Kalanisi (13th and wears first time blinkers today), Cape Dutch (15th) and Saphir River (unseated rider 2nd).


Novices fare very well in the handicap hurdles at this meeting including this race where they have made a real impact winning six of the last ten runnings. It would have been seven out of 11 but Special Envoy tipped up at the last when clear in 2007. Therefore, we should be respecting Bourne, Hazy Tom, It’s A Gimme, Kilmacowen, Cape Dutch, Lava Lamp, All The Aces, Tour D’Argent and Rajnagan.


Other stats to note are that 12 of the last 16 winners were held up (last season’s winner was dropped right out in rear) and only two favourites have won though predicting the market leader at this stage is difficult.


SHORT LIST


IT’S A GIMME


BOURNE


CAPE DUTCH


RAJNAGAN


CONCLUSION


Given the very good record of novices and horses in J P McManus’ colours in this race then IT’S A GIMME would be the main trends pick ticking both boxes. His two wins this season have been by narrow margins which all helps regards a first crack at a handicap and the stable have won this race twice in the last five years. BOURNE won a valuable handicap at Ascot that has been working out well and is a second novice to be very interested in. Although only ninth at the Festival behind Attaglance when sent off favourite for the Martin Pipe Hurdle, he wasn’t beaten all that far under ten lengths and this flat course can prove more in his favour. Sticking with Cheltenham runners, the Coral Cup has been the best guide and another novice in CAPE DUTCH makes most appeal from the quartet to contest that race back on a flat course though he did run well at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting. A flat-bred, this course can bring the best out of him and he is very unexposed having only run eight times on the Flat and jumps combined. RAJNAGAN represents Paul Webber who caused a big upset at this meeting in a handicap hurdle with Time For Rupert and does target this meeting (the Red Rum being another race he liked down the years) so I wouldn’t be shocked if this has been a long term plan. The winner of four races during the summer as a novice but unraced for the best part of six months, that is a similar profile to last year’s winner. A fifth novice to end the short list is Nicky Henderson’s TOUR D’ARGENT who Geraghty rides rather than his fellow stablemate and novice All The Aces. After two comfortable wins in small races, he could be thrown in or terribly treated, we just don’t know but winning at a lowly course like Hereford last time out could suggest they fancied getting a nice handicap mark to start with him or that he isn’t considered that special. The fact Geraghty rides him over a classy Flat horse in All The Aces would sway me in favour of the latter.