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    Info my thoughts and bets for the final day at aintree

    1.45 JOHN SMITH’S MERSEY NOVICES’ HURDLE


    Now in its third season as a Grade 2 race where Grade 1 winners over hurdles are unpenalised, as many as five Festival novice hurdle winners were beaten here under a penalty since 1988 but Peddlers Cross completed the Neptune-Mersey double in 2010 immediately after the penalty was dropped and Simonsig will be a short price to emulate him this season at level weights following his demolition job in the same novice event at Cheltenham last month.


    This wouldn’t be a massively strong trends race but a notable statistic is that 10 of the last 15 winners recorded a top-six finish at the Cheltenham Festival – only Simonsig managed that of today’s field. As you would expect the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham have been the key guides but it is certainly worth recalling that five of the last 16 winners were running on strongly at the end of the Supreme over two miles and appreciated this extra 3½ furlongs in victory. Colour Squadron is the only Supreme representative but he was a disappointing twelfth. The Neptune over a similar trip to this race equals the Supreme with three winners if just taking into the last ten years into account with three winners and all three finished in the first four in that 2m5f event at Cheltenham. Simonsig is the only Neptune representative this time.


    I had previously been really keen on five and six-year-olds until Elusive Dream became the first winner aged over six to win in 20 years in 2008 and still wouldn’t be mad keen on such seven-year-olds such as Go All The Way and Maggio. Five-year-olds have had the best of it of late with a 1-2-3 last season following on from a 1-2 in 2010. Molotof and Old Tricks represent five-year-olds this time.


    In the last 15 years we have witnessed five winning favourites or joint-favourites, and six successful second-favourites so this is a race where punters have certainly held the edge. Only Best Mate of the last 11 winners has made most of the running.


    SHORT LIST


    SIMONSIG


    COLOUR SQUADRON


    CONCLUSION


    Very hard to get away from SIMONSIG on form or trends and he should justify what is likely to be a very short price if his Neptune winning exertions have not left their mark. He won so easily at Cheltenham that he finished looking as fresh as paint so I would be surprised if he doesn’t have enough left in the locker for this race though do remember that Peddlers Cross made quite hard work of it when winning here two years ago after winning the Neptune so a win at Cheltenham, no matter how easy, can take out more of a horse than is obvious. Although he ran below expectations in the Supreme, COLOUR SQUADRON did at least contest that race which has been a good guide and he should have won the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle but for hanging on the run-in. He steps up to 2m4f for the first time here which has been an ‘in’ of sorts to this race and Hobbs has a decent record in the novice hurdles at this meeting. If Simonsig is too short then Colour Squadron appeals as the next best alternative or in forecast or betting without the favourite markets.


    2.15 JOHN SMITH’S MAGHULL NOVICES’ CHASE


    Not a great surprise the monster that is Sprinter Sacre has frightened off all bar three rivals but it has spoiled what is usually a strong trends race into pretty much a watching race unless you don’t mind taking long odds-on or are looking for a forecast or betting without the favourite interest.


    Only one of the last 17 runnings of the Arkle Chase has not provided the winner of the Maghull Novice Chase (Tataniano in 2010) and this year’s winner, Sprinter Sacre, attempts to double up and become the fifth horse to complete the Arkle-Maghull double following Nakir, Flagship Uberalles, Well Chief and Tidal Bay. Arkle winners beaten here in that same time period were Champleve, Contraband and Voy Por Ustedes. No other Arkle runner dares to take him on again here.


    With five wins and six seconds since 1999, Paul Nicholls has been the key trainer by a long stretch and it is notable how many of those were bred in continental Europe like his representative this year, the French-bred Toubab. Between them, French and German breds have an excellent record winning eight of the last 12 runnings and French breds numerically lead 6-2 (also had seven seconds in that period for good measure).


    Given that the last 14 winners could all be found in the first three in the betting, this isn’t a race to chance a relatively un-fancied horse. In fact, when Ballinclay King won at 6/1 in 2001, when it was bog-like, he was the biggest priced winner in the last 14 years and, of the remaining 13 winners, only one did not start either favourite or second-favourite. I imagine that Toubab will start clear second favourite behind the long odds-on Sprinter Sacre.


    12 of the last 13 winners raced handily. Finian’s Rainbow last season, for example, made all. The exception was Well Chief but he was rather special being one of the top ten two-mile chasers of all time. I expect Sizing Australia to set the pace and that could be a ferocious pace as he really tanks along and he will be very fresh following a 158 day break. Kudu Country also likes to lead but I can’t think of many horses that could lead Sizing Australia.


    SHORT LIST


    SPRINTER SACRE


    TOUBAB


    CONCLUSION


    Being the only Arkle runner (where he bolted up) in a race where the Arkle form is everything, SPRINTER SACRE can’t be opposed here on trends but he is also likely to start at such cramped odds that he will not tempt many. The hope if you take him on is that he makes a mistake at the likely very fast pace Australia Day could set. If you fancy an interest for a forecast bet or without Sprinter Sacre, then it has to be TOUBAB given the superb record of Paul Nicholls in this race and especially with his French-breds. He was still going okay when brought down in the Grand Annual last time.


    2.50 JOHN SMITH’S AINTREE HURDLE


    This is by far and away the best race for the Irish at this meeting, in fact they have won 17 of the 36 runnings and Thousand Stars is their only representative this season attempting to go one place better than his neck second of last year when arguably set too much to do. Paul Townend takes over from Katie Walsh this year.


    Horses placed in the last two Champion Hurdles have gone on to win here and that race is represented this time by the winner, Rock On Ruby, and the fifth, Zarkandar, both for Paul Nicholls with Noel Fehily keeping the ride on the winner leaving Ruby Walsh on the latter. It is no surprise that the Champion Hurdle is the best British guide in the last decade with four winners but the record of the Champion Hurdle winner here since Dawn Run completed the double in 1984 has been mixed with three winning but five others were beaten including two at long odds-on.


    The best individual Irish race guide with four winners in the last decade has been the Istabraq Festival Hurdle run at Leopardstown over Christmas which witnessed Unaccompanied beat Thousand Stars who found 2m too sharp that day off a slow gallop on the tight inside hurdles course. Also note last season’s Aintree Hurdle with three winners in the last ten years and it augurs well for Oscar Whisky’s chances that previous winners often land this prize more than once, in fact, as many as six horses have won this race at least twice with Al Eile recording three wins and Morley Street even going one better than that with four Aintree Hurdle successes. Thousand Stars was only a neck behind 12 months ago mind you so he can be argued to be a big price compared to Oscar Whisky this year.


    Save for a 1-2 for the two market leaders in 2008, fancied horses have struggled to fight this race out. Prior to 2008, seven out of the eight previous winners did not start in the first three in the betting, the exception being Rhinestone Cowboy. On the other hand, the next section of fancied horses have done very well as only Mister Morose at 16/1 was a winning long shot. That said, we only have a six-runner line up this year so the chances of a big fancy winning are increased. It will be a good battle between Rock On Ruby and Oscar Whisky which will start favourite.


    Zarkandar and Third Intention represent the five-year-olds but only three horses aged so young have won since 1980. The upside is that two of those were in the last seven years (Al Eile and Solwhit).


    SHORT LIST
    thosand stars


    OSCAR WHISKY


    CONCLUSION


    Being the only Irish representative in a race where they have a tremendous record THOUSAND STARS looks the best value and especially as he was only beaten a neck in this race last year (many horses come back to run well in this race again) and he is arguably an even better horse now having won two Grade 1 races since. Given that five-year-olds (Zarkandar and Third Intention) don’t have the best record and the record of the Champion Hurdle winner is patchy, the second short list berth goes to last year’s winner OSCAR WHISKY who, like Thousand Stars, was outstayed in the World Hurdle and should be more at home at this trip. Dual winners or better of this race are commonplace. He may start favourite which hasn’t been a positive in terms of winners lately but the Champion Hurdler, Rock On Ruby, could push him for that position.


    3.25 JOHN SMITH’S HANDICAP CHASE


    This wouldn’t be a particularly strong trends race and it has been marginally preferential that our selection ran at the Cheltenham Festival as 8 of the last 15 winners took their chance at Prestbury Park the previous month from less than 50% of the winners.


    However, your guess is as good as mine as to which Festival race to concentrate on as those seven winners ran in six different races. The best recent guide though has certainly been the Byrne Group Plate over 2m5f which has featured three of the last five winners of this half-mile longer handicap chase but is unrepresented this season leaving the Foxhunters’ (Chapoturgeon 2nd), RSA Chase (Cannington Brook unplaced), Kim Muir (Brackloon High and The Hollinwell both unplaced), the JLT Specialty Chase (Tullamore Dew and Noland both unplaced) and the Pulteney Novices’ Handicap Chase (Ackertac, Carrick Boy, Battle Group and Saint Are all unplaced) to be the Festival runners.
    With Jonjo O’Neill and Nicky Henderson unrepresented that leaves Philip Hobbs (Marufo) and Venetia Williams (Carrick Boy) who have both had numerous contenders run well as the trainers with runners with the best records.


    An age stat worth noting is that 13 of the last 15 winners were aged nine or younger (not ideal for Tullamore Dew, Noland and Marufo). Generally speaking the Mildmay Chase course lends itself to those with the tactical speed to hold an early position and six of the last eight winners having raced very handily throughout. In fact, last year’s winner was in front with a circuit to race.


    SHORT LIST


    chapoturgeon


    SAINT ARE


    CARRICK BOY


    CANNINGTON BROOK


    CONCLUSION


    CHAPOTURGEON finished a clear second for Paul Nicholls in the Foxhunters’ and he runs here just as the same yard’s Sleeping Night did a month after he won the Foxhunters’ so this is a tried and tested route for the stable. SAINT ARE is a flat track horse so don’t let his Cheltenham runs put you off him. The winner of a Grade 1 novice hurdle at this meeting last year, I would not be in the least bit surprised if this race has been a long term plan from the Tim Vaughan yard. CARRICK BOY could be a tasty price having pulled up six days ago but his stable know what they are doing in this race and he ran well at the Festival when sixth in the novices’ handicap and a step up in trip could be what he needs. Top weights have a good record in this race down the years so CANNINGTON BROOK is more interesting than most. He led in the RSA Chase before being outclassed and those tactics work better at Aintree so hopefully they will be employed again.


    4.15 JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL


    There are stats galore of course but here are the five strongest I like to cut the field to a more manageable shortlist before then having a proper good look to assist into hopefully unlocking the identity of this year’s winner.


    (1) Overlook any horse carrying over 11st 5lbs for win-only purposes. No horse has managed this feat since Red Rum in 1977 and as many as 98 have tried. I stress win-only purposes as many have been placed of late which suggests that the handicapper’s tinkerings to assist the top weights will come to fruition sooner rather than later. That means I am against the likely favourite, Synchronised, off top weight in his bid to become the first Gold Cup winner to double up since Golden Miller. Ballabriggs, Weird Al, Neptune Collonges and Calgary Bay also carry over 11st 5lbs. That said, I am strong to Ballabriggs to place again and have backed him place only.


    (2) Disregard any horse yet to win a race over three miles or more. A basic requirement you would have thought for a contest over 4½ miles and no winner since 1970 had failed to win over at least three miles beforehand. That means I can’t support Tatenen, Quiscover Fontaine and In Compliance. Seabass and Becauseicouldntsee have not won over 3m+ under Rules but have won over 3m in point to points and the latter clearly stays very well having been second in the 4m NH Chase. Seabass’ stamina would concern me a lot more though and Walsh has his doubts he will stay so chose to ride On His Own instead. iH


    (3) Dismiss horses too young and too old. Experience counts for so much in the Grand National to the extent that no winner has been aged under eight for 72 years. Furthermore, since 1992, only six of their 40 runners have even completed the course. Six-year-olds have been banned from running as from this season. Therefore stats say I can’t support Organiseconfusion, Tharawaat or the novice, Viking Blond. Also dismiss Hello Bud and Black Apalachi as no horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 and none have even placed since 1969.


    (4) Disregard horses to have not run in the calendar year. Not since the fragile Aldaniti won in 1981 has a winner not had a prep-race in the last seven weeks but a little discretion should be used here of course as I’m not sure another week or so in this day and age would make any difference. It is those that have not run this calendar year I would be more concerned about which brings in State Of Play, West End Rocker and Arbor Supreme.
    If you want to be play it by the book of no more than seven weeks then that means that Neptune Collonges (56 days), Calgary Bay (77), Chicago Grey (56), Tatenen (56), On His Own (79), Treacle (62), Always Right (56), Cappa Bleu (56), Quiscover Fontaine (77), Giles Cross (56), Vic Venturi (62) and Viking Blond (56) are vulnerable on stats but not by much – eight of them by less than a week so some discretion can be used here.


    (5) Strike a line through French-bred and Flat-bred contenders. Just one French-bred winner in 103 years tells a story though it should be stressed that winner was a fairly recent one in Mon Mome and they did not attack the race in the same volume for the first 80 years as they have since but they are still underperforming as far as finding the winner is concerned in the last 20 years. French breds this year are Tatenen, Mon Mome, Quiscover Fontaine, Tharawaat, Swing Bill and Viking Blond. On the subject of breeding, the freak Red Rum apart, Flat breds don’t win the Grand National very often which puts me off Junior, Deep Purple and Postmaster.


    Most winners are within striking distance heading out into the second circuit – Ballabriggs being another example last year being prominent throughout. I don’t like obvious hold-up horses so that puts me off Sunnyhillboy who is usually given a hunting/creeping ride. Only four of the last 22 winners were given hunting rides with their jockeys slowly creeping into contention in the final mile having been buried away for the first circuit and a half. Most winners are within striking distance heading out into the second circuit.


    Giles Cross won the Grand National Trial at Haydock that has highlighted several National winners since the 1970s but no horse has ever completed the double so he wouldn’t be for me either, especially with the ground not as soft as was being predicted.


    Once horses carrying over 11st 5lbs, yet to win over 3m+, aged seven, aged over 12, been off the course since before the New Year, French breds, Flat breds, obvious hold up horses and the Haydock Grand National Trial winner have been overlooked, that cuts the 40 runners down to 17 to start then looking at the positive stats.


    As for the best guides, last year’s Grand National is often the best place to start as 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the race 12 months earlier (and 7 of the last 11 winners had experience of the fences before). Last year’s winner, Ballabriggs, is back again and I envisage another huge run and fancy him to place again whilst others that contested last year’s race were State Of Play (4th), The Midnight Club (6th), In Compliance (13th), Hello Bud (p.u), West End Rocker (b.d), Killyglen (fell), Calgary Bay (fell), Arbor Supreme (fell), Becauseicouldntsee (fell) and Vic Venturi (b.d). The handicap chase that has come to the fore in very recent years is the Morson Group Handicap Chase run over an extended 3m3f at Cheltenham’s November Meeting featuring two of the last four winners and was won this season by Galaxy Rock (not entered) but the also-rans to line up here are West End Rocker and Chicago Grey.


    Last season’s Irish Grand National has been the best Irish guide featuring four Aintree Grand National winners in the last 13 years. Organisedconfusion (though being a 7-year-old is the big statistical negative with him) won last year’s race and he had the J P McManus-owned trio of Sunnyhillboy (3rd), Quiscover Fontaine (4th) and a certain horse by the name of Synchronised (pulled up) behind.


    Mon Mome backers of three years ago will tell you otherwise but this is generally a good race for fancied horses with 16 of the last 21 winners started in the first eight in the betting. At the current time those positions are occupied by Synchronised, Ballabriggs, Junior, West End Rocker, On His Own, Chicago Grey, Cappa Bleu and Shakalakaboomboom. What I would say though is the market can be volatile on the day so this is highly likely to change plus there are more horses than I can ever remember priced up to 33/1 this year so the Handicapper has certainly succeeded in making this a very good puzzle.


    Six of the last 13 winners were trained in Ireland from approximately 20% representation and they have big claims again with On His Own, Killyglen, Chicago Grey, Organisedconfusion, Becauseicouldntsee, Treacle, Seabass, Quiscover Fontaine, The Midnight Club, Alfa Beat, Rare Bob, Black Apalachi, Vic Venturi and In Compliance going for them.


    SHORT LIST


    KILLYGLEN


    THE MIDNIGHT CLUB


    RARE BOB


    PLANET OF SOUND


    ACCORDING TO PETE


    CONCLUSION


    Seventeen horses survived the negative trends listed as far as win-only bets are concerned (though I am very keen on Ballabriggs place only) so, to cut that down further, I reluctantly choose to overlook those that had been off the course between seven weeks and the start of the year (it is a pattern after all) or otherwise the short list would be anything but. That leaves ten 10 horses as I have decided to take out Seabass on potential stamina grounds and then down to eight as Neptune Equester will do well to win being the only horse out of the handicap, and by as much as 5lbs. Given that I also think eight-year-olds struggle (just one win in 18 years) that means that Shakalalakaboom and Alfa Beat fall at the last hurdle. As a hard race at the Cheltenham Festival can leave it mark, then that is enough for me to pass on the Kim Muir second, Becauseicouldntsee, who also fell at only the second fence last year plus Midnight Haze would have also known he had been in a race when fifth in the Festival cross country race not beaten far. Onto the five shortlisted horses and KILLYGLEN gets the vote also being Irish-trained and having run so well in this race last year when falling four out when in second place. He also likes to race up with the pace which I like for this race and has been in fine form this season and loves left-handed, flat tracks. THE MIDNIGHT CLUB also represents the Irish and has course experience having finished sixth last year. I am not 100% sure he took to it but at least he has experience of this test on his side this time and his yard have won the race before. RARE BOB had a look at these fences in Becher Chase so knows what to expect this time. Forget that run as he ground was heavy and he likes this better surface plus his yard have trained two winners over these fences recently and had a Grand National second two years ago. He would probably have been second in the 3m handicap chase on this card last year which has been a decent pointer in recent years and he too races prominently. PLANET OF SOUND is a former Grade 1 winner that was second in the Hennessy (a good guide down the years) and then third in another top class handicap at Kempton. He does like galloping, flat tracks and the yard’s Hennessy winner, What’s Up Boys, was just touched off in this race. He is my idea of the best of the Brits for an each-way pop at a working man’s price if the rain stays away. If it gets softer then ACCORDING TO PETE would take over than mantle. It is so hard not to like this battler who wears his heart on his sleeve and likes to race prominently which is always a big positive for this race.


    5.05 JOHN SMITH’S HANDICAP HURDLE


    This race does not feature in the Aintree & Punchestown Festivals Betting Guide but I’ve had a stab anyway.
    When this two-mile handicap hurdle opened the card on Grand National day the Irish had a terrific record, winning four times between 2000 and 2007 but they then lost their way three years ago after the prize money was dropped and this handicap was restricted to conditional and amateur riders and positioned after the Grand National. However, the Irish certainly went after it last year by supplying the winner and second who pulled a massive 14 lengths clear of their other 19 rivals. Clearly any Irish contenders have to be taken very seriously and Redera, Idarah and Inis Meain go for them here.


    This handicap used to be one of the strongest of the season in terms of trends but it is hard to argue it is the same race now that professionals are not allowed to ride and the first two runnings under its new guise went all against the previous strong patterns. For example, five and six-year-olds had won 16 of the 18 renewals up until the changes in 2009 but the next two winners were aged nine and seven. Hopefully last season’s 1-2-3 for five and six-year-olds will see a return to their previous dominance.


    At least we had a return to a lightly-weighted winner last season with Far Away So Close carrying only 9st 10lbs after his rider’s 7lbs claim. The 2010 winner carried top weight of 11st 12lbs which came as a big shock when we consider that the previous 76 horses that had attempted to win with more than 11st on their back since 1990 had been beaten.




    The only stats to have held up since the change are that favourites continue on a losing sequence now being up to 17 on the spin being defeated and that no front runner has won since 1998 and that was only a five-runner race.


    SHORT LIST


    INIS MEAIN


    CONSTANT CONTACT


    SAUTE


    REDERA


    CONCLUSION


    As the Irish have a fine record in this handicap and two of their three runners carry no more than 11st and are five or six-year-olds then REDERA and INIS MEAIN are definitely worth a second look. Redera was a decent eighth in the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle last time out and Inis Meain is a novice open to plenty of improvement on his handicap debut. Other five or six-year-olds carrying under 11st include CONSTANT CONTACT and SAUTE who make more appeal than others in the same boat. Constant Contact represents Donald McCain and he has his handicap debut over hurdles after winning easily at Herford last time and was a classy Flat handicapper rated 94 so he looks like he can be very competitive off 128 if you take the rule of thumb of adding 50lbs onto a Flat rating over hurdles. Saute represents Tim Vaughan and is also a novice, and one that could have been laid out for this following an absence of 176 days.


    5.35 JOHN SMITH’S CHAMPION BUMPER


    This race also doesn’t feature in the Aintree & Punchestown Festivals Betting Guide but I’ve given it a crack.
    A race in which this season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner, Cinders And Ashes, could only finish tenth in last season having previously finished fifth in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, five winners of this Grade 2 event ran in the Festival Bumper at Cheltenham, four in the last 12 years. All four were unplaced at Cheltenham whereas the three runners-up at Cheltenham that tried to go one better were all turned over so. Therefore, give plenty of respect to The New One (6th), Many Clouds (9th) and Sir Johnson (11th).


    Alan Swinbank has supplied a winner and a runner-up in two of the last four seasons and runs Big Water but, of current trainers only Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this race twice and he is represented by The New One. Both his winners came in the last 13 years during which time he has had eight runners in total.


    Other patterns worth noting are that 16 of the 24 winners, including 12 of the last 17, had their most recent outing in March (though not last year as Steps To Freedom had not run since early July) and 20 of those 24 winners had run no more than three times beforehand.


    SHORT LIST


    THE NEW ONE


    SIR JOHNSON


    MANY CLOUDS


    BIG WATER


    CONCLUSION


    The Weatherbys Champion Bumper form has to be respected and as the sixth last month, THE NEW ONE, is also trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies gunning for a third win in the race then he has to considered. Peter Bowen loves Aintree and has won plenty of bumpers here including with SIR JOHNSON who finished in midfield at Cheltenham so he is respected though he has had more runs than ideal. MANY CLOUDS finished two places ahead of him at Cheltenham so is another obvious contender. Alan Swinbank’s record means that BIG WATER is also worth a look.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    flik (14th April 2012)  


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