The Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes takes place at Newmarket on Wednesday 18th April. It is a group 3 run over 7 furlongs and is one of the main trials for the 1000 Guineas run at Newmarket on the 6th May.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yo fillies

Breeding
9 of 10 winners were by a sire who won a group 1 over a mile or shorter at 2 or 3

Weight
Only 4 fillies have carried a 3lb penalty in this since 2002, 2 have won and the other 2 were placed.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season
10 of 10 winners had won a race as a 2yo
10 of 10 winners had last start between 27th September & 3rd November
10 of 10 winners had won over 6F to 8F
7 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (2 of 3 exceptions won their maiden on their last start & other was 2nd in a listed race on previous start)
6 of 10 winners ran at Newmarket on their previous start
5 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (3 exceptions had not run here and 1 other was placed on only course start)

Other Races
Rockfel Stakes winner: 11 (2-0-2)
Highest placed finisher from the Rockfel: 10311 (3-1-5)
E B F "Makfi" Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Starscope): 1 (1-0-1)
Prestige Stakes winner (Regal Realm): 1 (1-0-1)
Empress Stakes winner (Lily's Angel): 24 (0-1-2)
Radley Stakes winner (Pimpernel): 0 (0-0-1)
E B F "Dansili" Jersey Lily Fillies' Nursery winner (Pimpernel): 70 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Firth Of Clyde Stakes, finishing 103
3 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 311
2 of 10 winners ran in the Albany Stakes, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Lowther Stakes, finishing 95
2 of 10 winners ran in Dick Poole Conditions Stakes, finishing 25

Trainers
John Gosden (2-1-6) and Mick Channon (2-0-8) have each trainer the winner twice since 2002.
Richard Fahey (1-0-2) trained Barefoot Lady to win this last year.
Jeremy Noseda (0-2-4) trained the winner in 2001 and has seen 2 of his 4 runners in past 10 years make the places.

Price
7 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
There have only been 2 double figure priced winners since 2002, a 25/1 winner in 2004 and a 14/1 winner last year.
Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 0.82.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a filly:
· Sired by horse who won a group 1 as a 2yo or 3yo
· Having first run of the season
· Had last run between 27th September and 3rd November
· Won a race over 6F to 8F as a 2yo
· Course winner (or having first run here)
· Won a group or listed race (or won maiden last time out)
· Ran at Newmarket last time out
· Finished in first 3 in Rockfel, Albany and/or Firth Of Clyde Stakes
· Trained by John Gosden or Mick Channon