punchestown festival trends - 24th-28th april

[ganjaman2]

PUNCHESTOWN CHAMPION CHASE TRENDS 2012



The Boylesports.com Champion Chase is the highlight of the first day of the 2012 Punchestown Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 24th April. The first 3 from the Queen Mother Champion Chase, Finian’s Rainbow, Sizing Europe and Big Zeb are all entered, though it looks unlikely Finian’s Rainbow will line up after his impressive win in the Melling Chase.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 2-0-3
7yo: 0-1-4
8yo: 3-6-24
9yo: 3-3-23
10yo: 2-1-11
11yo+: 0-1-8
6yos have won the last 2 of the last 4 runnings of this race and failed to have a representative in the other 2 runnings since 2008.
Both winners aged 10 had previously won the Queen Mother and had run well in the race previously (Big Zeb was a slightly unlucky 2nd two years before winning aged 10 while Moscow Flyer unseated when looking the likely winner the year before he won it aged 10.

Breeding
Irish bred: 6-10-47
French bred: 4-2-14
Other: 0-0-12
10 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred but younger French breds and older Irish bred horses have held the edge.
French bred horses aged 6 to 8: 4-1-7
French bred horses age 9+: 0-1-7
Irish bred horses aged 6 to 8: 1-6-16
Irish bred horses age 9+: 5-4-34
All 4 French bred winners began their NH career in a Auteuil Hurdle.

Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners won last time out (3 of 4 others finished in first 6 in Queen Mother)
10 of 10 winners had run in the previous 50 days
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (2 exceptions finished 2nd or 3rd in grade 1)
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season (exception had 10 runs)
9 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 chases that season
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 8 chases (winning at least 4)
8 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers (2 others won previous season's Queen Mother)
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 1F+

Other races
Defending Champion Chaser (Big Zeb): 5P4 (0-0-3)
Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet winner (Big Zeb): FU153211 (3-2-8)
Tingle Creek winner (Sizing Europe): 1211R (3-1-5)
Queen Mother Champion Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): U2112 (2-2-5)
Fortria Chase winner (Big Zeb): 12351 (2-1-5)
Melling Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): 12 (1-1-2)
Previous season's Maghull Novice Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): 14 (1-0-2)
Previous season's Irish Arkle winner (Realt Dubh): 414 (1-0-3)
Ladbrokes.com Chase winner (Kauto Star): 2U (0-1-2)
Previous season's Powers Gold Cup winner (Realt Dubh): 23 (0-1-2)
Previous season's Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Realt Dubh): FU5542 (0-1-6)
Tied Cottage Chase winner (Sizing Europe): UU236P4 (0-1-7)
Poplar Square Chase winner (Noble Prince): FP3 (0-0-3)
7 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother, finishing 5U16162
4 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase, finishing 1411
4 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 4111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Victor Chandler Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Red Mills Chase, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Kinloch Brae, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hilly Way Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dan Moore Memorial H'cap Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Tied Cottage, finishing 22
9 of 10 winners ran at Cheltenham Festival (7 in Queen Mother, 1 in Ryanair & 1 in Byrne Plate)

Trainers
British based trainers (3-1-10) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings, including 2 of the last 4 from approximately 13.7% of the total runners.
Paul Nicholls (2-1-4) saddled the 1-2 in 2008 and the winner in 2009. His one other runner was Twist Magic in 2010, who refused to race.
Philip Hobbs (1-0-2) trained Flagship Uberalles to win this in 2003. Nicky Henderson (0-0-0) has not saddled a runner in this since he won it with Get Real in 2000.
Colm Murphy (1-1-3) has trained Big Zeb to gain a win and a 2nd in this race, Arthur Moore also trained one horse (Mansony) to gain a win and a place.
Noel Meade (1-1-6) has also gained a win & a place in this since 2002 while Henry De Bromhead has trained Sizing Europe to be placed in the last 2 renewals.

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below
All 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and only one horse priced over 12/1 has made the places in the past 10 years
Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 2.59.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· French bred aged 6 to 8 or Irish bred aged 9+
· Run in the past 50 days
· Won last time out (or finished 2nd to 6th in Queen Mother)
· Won a grade 1 or 2 chase (preferably a grade 1)
· Run at least 3 to 5 times season, winning at least twice
· Run at least 8 times over fences, winning at least four
· Second or third season chaser (or previous Queen Mother winner)
· Ran at the Cheltenham Festival (ideally in the Queen Mother)
· Ran in the Tingle Creek and/or PP Dial-A-Bet Chase
· First 2 in Hilly Way, Tied Cottage, Kinloch Brae and/or Red Mills Chase
· Won a chase over 2M 1F+
· Trained in Britain (ideally by Paul Nicholls)
· From first 5 in the betting (8/1 or lower)

[ganjaman2]

PUNCHESTOWN GOLD CUP TRENDS 2012



Strangely before 1999 there was no grade 1 chase for Gold Cup horses at Punchestown but now the Punchestown Gold Cup is the highlight of the meeting for many race fans. The race, which takes place on Wednesday 25th April, is run over 3M 1F and looks one of the most open renewals in years.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-0-1
7yo: 3-1-9
8yo: 4-4-22
9yo: 0-5-21
10yo: 2-3-16
11yo+: 0-2-13
Horses aged 6 to 8: 8-5-32
Horses aged 9 or older: 2-10-50
The last 8 runnings of this race have been won by horses aged 6 to 8.

Breeding
Irish bred: 5-15-62
French bred: 4-0-14
British bred: 1-0-5
German bred: 0-0-1
Irish bred horses have won 5 of last 10 but they have represented 75.6% of the total runners.
French bred horses have won 4 of last 10 (3 of the last 5) from 17.1% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (2 exceptions finished 11th in Ryanair and 8th in Cheltenham Gold Cup)
6 of 10 winners had won one of their last two starts
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 7 chases since September (winning 1 to 4)
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run 9 to 15 times over fences
8 of 10 winners (last 8) were second or third season chasers
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception had not run over further than 2M 6F)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (2 exceptions had finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1)
6 of 10 winners were course winners (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start while 2 others put in solid efforts in grade 1 chases here)

Other races
Defending Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Follow The Plan): 4531P (1-0-5)
John Durkan Memorial winner (Rubi Light): 131133U (3-1-7)
Aintree Bowl winner (Follow The Plan): 114 (2-0-3)
Clonmel Oil winner (Tranquil Sea): 413U (1-1-4)
Kinloch Brae winner (Apt Approach): 2371 (1-1-4)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (Medermit): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Captain Chris): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's Fort Leney Chase winner (Bostons Angel): 351 (1-0-3)
Leopardstown Handicap Chase winner (Seabass): 423 (0-2-3)
Previous season's RSA Chase winner (Bostons Angel): F2P3 (0-2-4)
Irish Hennessy winner (Quel Esprit): 3228P (0-2-5)
Previous season's Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 25 (0-1-2)
Previous season's PJ Moriarty Chase winner (Bostons Angel): F343 (0-1-4)
Webster Cup Chase winner (Tranquil Sea): 424P (0-1-4)
Poplar Square Chase winner (Noble Prince): 46 (0-0-2)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Weird Al): F4 (0-0-2)
JNWine Champion Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): U8P (0-0-3)
Red Mills Chase winner (Rubi Light): 457U (0-0-4)
Previous season's Growise Champ Nov Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): F5PPP (0-0-5)
Record of horses who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in Cheltenham Gold Cup: 215514P (2-1-7)
7 of 10 winners ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 0P41183, though last 3 did not
5 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 13115
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus, finishing 732
3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Bowl last time, finishing 113
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 42
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine.com Champion Chase, finishing 32
3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Arkle, finishing 273
3 of 10 winners ran in this race previous year, finishing 217
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Ryanair Novice Chase, finishing B1

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (2-0-5) saddled Neptune Collonges to win the race in 2007 and 2008 though he has also had the unplaced favourite in past 2 renewals.
Willie Mullins (1-4-11) has won the race just once (in 2002 with Florida Pearl) but 5 of his 11 runners have made the places.
Mouse Morris (1-1-5) trained War Of Attrition to gain a win and a second in this while Philip Hobbs (1-0-2) and Oliver McKiernan (1-0-2) have trained the past 2 winners.
Dessie Hughes (0-3-5) has seen 3 of his 5 runners make the places.
British based trainers (3-1-20) don’t actually have that good a record in this race, especially when you remove Neptune Collonges’ 2 runs in the race, their record becomes just 1 winner and 1 place from 18 runners (7 of those 18 were sent off shorter than 5/1 and all 7 were unplaced including the last 2 favourites).

Price
7 of 10 winners were sent off favourite
There have been shocks in past 2 years with the winners going off 14/1 & 20/1 while the previous 8 winners all went off 8/1 or shorter.
Favourites (7-1-10) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 5.93.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 8
· French bred
· Finished in first 4 last time (or unplaced in a grade 1 at Cheltenham)
· Ran in past 40 days
· Run in 3 to 7 chases this season (winning 1 to 4)
· Run 9 to 15 times over fences
· Second or third season chaser (or won Aintree Bowl last time out)
· Won over 3M+
· Won a grade 1
· Previous course winner (or having first start here)
· Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and/or Aintree Bowl
· Finished in first 5 in Lexus, Irish Hennessy and/or John Durkan Memorial
· Trained in Ireland or by Paul Nicholls
· Sent off favourite

[ganjaman2]

PUNCHESTOWN CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2012



The big race on Punchestown’s Ladies Day, Friday 27th April, is the grade 1 Rabobank Champion Hurdle. This race has been won by some of the best Irish NH horses in the past 15 years with the likes of Istabraq, Moscow Flyer, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca and Hurricane Fly all tasting success in it. Hurricane Fly will be looking to put his defeat at Cheltenham behind him in this and land a hat-trick of victories in this race.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 3-1-9
6yo: 2-5-26
7yo: 4-2-18
8yo: 1-3-10
9yo: 0-0-3
10yo: 0-2-2
11yo+: 0-0-2
Horse aged 5 to 7: 9-8-53.
Horses aged 8+: 1-5-17

Gender
Mares (0-1-5) have yet to win this race and the exceptional Quevega in 2009 became the first female to make the frame from 5 runners in the past 10 years.

Breeding
Irish bred: 8-5-48
French bred: 1-6-13
British bred: 1-2-7
German bred: 0-0-2
No strong trends on breeding.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners posted career high RPR in last 3 hurdles starts (7 last time out)
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
9 of 10 winners (last 9) 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers
8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 6 hurdles races that season
7 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 12 times over hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle
9 of 10 winners were course winners

Punchestown Festival Form
8 of 10 winners had previously won at the Punchestown Festival (2 exceptions had finished 3rd in the Champion Hurdle & 6th in grade 1 Bumper)
7 of 10 winners (last 4) had won a juvenile or novice hurdle at the Festival (1 exception was brought down 2 out when looking a likely winner of a novice hurdle, other 2 exceptions hadn't contested a novice hurdle at Festival)
Defending Champion Hurdler (Hurricane Fly): 722221 (1-4-6)
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Evening Herald Champion Nov Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Champion 4yo Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Rabobank Champion Hurdle, finishing 31

Other races
Defending Champion Hurdler (Hurricane Fly): 722221 (1-4-6)
Cheltenham Champion Hurdle winner: 1221 (2-2-4)
Highest placed finisher from Cheltenham Champion Hurdle: 612231221 (3-4-9)
Red Mills Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 811 (2-0-3)
Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 332321 (1-2-6)
Leopardstown Dec Festival Hurdle (Unaccompanied): 3221 (1-1-4)
Previous season's Anniversary 4yo Hurdle winner (Zarkandar): 1 (1-0-1)
Fighting Fifth Hurdle winner (Overturn): 6242 (0-2-4)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Thousand Stars): 2266 (0-1-4)
WKD Hurdle winner (The Real Article): 3689 (0-0-4)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Istabraq Festival Hurdle, finishing 72431
5 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle, finishing 13231
3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out, finishing 4F1
3 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 221
3 of 10 winners ran in the Red Mills Hurdle, finishing 211
2 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana Hurdle, finishing 53
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hatton's Grace, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair hurdle, finishing 72

Trainers
Willie Mullins (3-3-10) has gained 3 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2002. He has saddled Hurricane Fly to win last 2 and Thousand Stars to be placed in past 2 years.
Noel Meade (0-1-9) has a poor record in this race, gaining no wins and just one place (with a 4/6 favourite) from 9 runners.
British trained runners (2-2-12) have a fair record, winning 2 of the last 10 and with 4 of their 12 runners making the places. Both British-trained winners had won the grade 1 4yo hurdle at the previous year’s Festival.

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter
9 of the last 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting however only 2 favourites have been successful.
Favourites (2-6-11) have taken just 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss 7.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 5 to 7
· Finished in the first 3 last time out in past 50 days
· Run 3 to 6 times over hurdles this season
· 2nd or 3rd season hurdler
· Won a grade 1 hurdle
· Previous Punchestown Festival winning form is crucial
· Previously won a novice or juvenile hurdle at the Festival
· Finished in first 3 over hurdles at 2011 Punchestown Festival
· Finished in first 3 in Cheltenham Champion Hurdle
· Finished in first 2 in Irish Champion and/or Red Mills Trial Hurdle
· Finished in first 4 in Istabraq Festival or Aintree Hurdle
· Trained by Willie Mullins
· Priced 6/1 or below (favourite has a poor record)

[ganjaman2]

WORLD SERIES HURDLE TRENDS 2012


The highlight of day 3 of Punchestown’s Festival, Thursday 26th April, is the grade 1 Ladbrokes.com World Series Hurdle. This race is run over 3 miles and usually attracts the best staying hurdlers from Britain and Quevega, who has won the past 2 runnings, will be looking to make it 3 in a row. It’s worth noting that its Cheltenham equivalent has been a very poor guide to this.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-3-8
6yo: 3-5-23
7yo: 3-7-29
8yo: 2-3-15
9yo: 0-1-10
10yo: 1-0-9
11yo+: 1-0-4
Horses aged 5 to 7: 6-15-60
Horses aged 8 or older: 4-4-38
The ages of the winners has been quite well spread out though in recent years younger horses have held the call with 8 of the last 9 winners aged 6 to 8 and only 2 horses aged above 8 have made the frame in the past 8 years.

Gender
Mares (4-2-10) receive a 5lb allowance and have made the most of that, gaining 4 wins and 2 places from just 10 runners. Their record when only counting mares priced 16/1 or shorter reads 51312141 (4-2-8).

Breeding
Irish bred: 6-14-62
French bred: 2-0-15
British bred: 2-2-11
German bred: 0-2-6
American bred: 0-1-4
No strong trends on the breeding.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won)
6 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) posted a career high RPR last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
8 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in previous year's race)
6 of 10 winners won over 3M+ (other 4 were grade 1 winners having first try at 3M+)
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (2 exceptions placed in a grade 1 & other having their first start in a grade 1)
6 of 10 winners were course winners (other 4 were having first course start)

Punchestown Festival Form
Defending Punchestown Staying Hurdler (Quevega): 4821 (1-1-4)
7 of 10 winners had won or placed at the Festival before, other 3 were having their first run at the Punchestown Festival
3 of 10 winners ran in previous Cathal Ryan Champion Novice Hurdle, finishing 1P2.
2 of 10 winners ran in previous World Series Hurdle, finishing 31

Cheltenham Festival Form
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle winner (Quevega): 11 (2-0-2)
Highest placed finisher in the World Hurdle to run in this: 62P3P6692 (0-3-9)
Placed finishers in World Hurdle: P6693 (0-1-5)
8 of 10 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (2 Pertemps Final, 2 Champion Hurdle, 2 Mares Hurdle, 1 Coral Cup, 1 World Hurdle)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Pertemps Final, finishing 50
2 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 8F
2 of 10 winners (both Quevega) ran in Mares Hurdle last time, finishing 11
Only 1 of 10 winners ran in that season’s World Hurdle at Cheltenham

Other races
Hattons Grace Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 1535 (1-1-4)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Thousand Stars): 1 (1-0-1)
Tara Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 154F (1-0-4)
Galmoy Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 837702 (0-2-6)
Red Mills Trial Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 25 (0-1-2)
Christmas Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 792 (0-1-3)
Boyne Hurdle winner (Mourad): 3764 (0-1-4)
Lismullen Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 3507 (0-1-4)
Rock Of Cashel Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 04 (0-0-2)
Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle winner (Get Me Out Of Here): 564 (0-0-3)
Highest placed finisher in the Aintree Hurdle: 21117 (3-1-5)
Highest placed finisher in the Liverpool Hurdle: 23P1706 (1-2-7)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the John Smith's Handicap Hurdle last time out, finishing 03
6 of last 8 winners ran at Aintree last time out (Quevega accounts for other 2)

Trainers
British trained runners (4-7-23) have a strong record in this race, having won 4 of the last 10 runnings with almost half of their representatives making the places.
Willie Mullins (3-2-13) has won the race 4 times in past 10 years, including the last 3.
Jonjo O’Neill (2-3-6) has gained 2 wins and 3 places from his 6 runners since 2002.

Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
There have been two shock winners at 16/1 and 25/1 (both trained in Britain) but other than those two the other 8 winners were all sent off 6/1 or lower.
Favourites (6-2-10) have a very good record having won 6 of the last 10 (including the last 4), giving a level stakes profit of 5.09.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 8 or younger
· Mares do well
· Finished in the first 3 last time out in the past 50 days
· A second or third season hurdler (or won/placed in last year’s race)
· Won a grade 1
· Won over 3M+ (or trying 3M+ for first time)
· Previously won or placed at Punchestown Festival
· Course winner (or having first run here)
· Ran at the Aintree Festival last time (or in Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham)
· Avoid horses that finished in the first 3 in the 2012 World Hurdle
· Trained by Jonjo O’Neill or by Willie Mullins
· Priced 6/1 or below (favourites do well)

[ganjaman2]

LA TOUCHE CUP TRENDS 2012



The Avon Ri Corporate & Leisure Resort Chase for the La Touche Cup takes place on day 3 of the Punchestown Festival (26th April) and is run around the unique banks course over a 4M 1F trip. The race has been dominated by Enda Bolger who has won it 8 times in last 10 years but with Willie Mullins taking more of an interest in these races, his dominance is being threatened.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:






Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-11
7yo: 1-2-18
8yo: 2-6-24
9yo: 1-5-26
10yo: 2-3-27
11yo: 2-1-22
12yo: 0-2-19
13yo+: 2-1-18
All 11 horses aged 6 to have run in this since 2002 have been unplaced.
Both winners aged over 11 were previous winners of the race.
Horses aged 8 to 11 have a combined record of 7-15-99
All other ages have a combined record of 3-5-66

Breeding
Irish bred: 8-14-138
French bred: 2-2-14
GB bred: 0-4-11
NZ bred: 0-1-1
USA bred: 0-0-1
Irish bred horses have represented 83.6% of the total runners, so their haul of 8 wins in last 10 years is actually below average.
French bred horses have won 2 of the last 3 renewals and seen 4 of their 14 representatives make the frame since 2002.

Weight
Horses allotted 12-7: 3-2-13
Horses allotted 12-3: 3-3-15
Horses allotted 11-12: 2-5-31
Horses allotted 11-7: 1-8-89
Horses allotted less than 11-7: 1-2-17
Horses allotted 12-3 or higher: 6-5-28
Horses allotted less than 12-3: 4-15-137

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in first 5 on last completed start
8 of 10 winners won 2+ chases under rules (2 exceptions won a pt to pt last time)
10 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days
9 of 10 winners had won a point to point
8 of 10 winners made their seasonal debut in hurdles or pt to pt race
10 of 10 winners had won no more than twice that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 9K+ (last 3 had won a chase worth 25K+)

Punchestown Banks Form
10 of 10 winners had run over banks course (8 twice or more)
7 of 10 winners had won around banks course
8 of 10 winners ran around banks course at previous Festival
Defending La Touche Cup winner: 151 (2-0-3)
Highest placed finisher from last year to return: 1P521P44R1 (3-1-10)
Previous season's Irish Field Chase winner: 6P12 (1-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from previous season's Irish Field Chase: 63P12 (1-2-5)
Previous season's Ladies Perpetual Cup winner (Outlaw Pete): 58 (0-0-2)
That year's Ladies Perpetual Cup winner: 14 (1-0-2)
5 of 10 winners ran in previous La Touche Cup, finishing 1U103
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Ladies Perpetual Cup, finishing 6F
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Irish Field WFA Chase, finishing 51

Other Races
Cheltenham Festival Cross Country winner: 71 (1-0-2)
Highest placed finisher from Cheltenham Festival X-Country Chase: F710111 (4-0-7)
Glenfarclas X-Country Chase winner (Uncle Junior): 01 (1-0-2)
5 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) ran in X-Country Chase at Cheltenham, finishing 64127
3 of 10 winners ran in Glenfarclas X-Country Chase, finishing P12
3 of 10 winners ran in Glenfarclas X-Country H'cap Chase in Dec, finishing 311

Trainers
Enda Bolger (8-5-28) has dominated this race, winning 14 of the last 16 (though only 2 of the last 4). Record of Bolger first string: 1U51014114 (5-0-10).
Stuart Crawford (1-0-2) is one of the 2 other trainers to have won this in recent history, taking the prize with Oh Jackie in 2008.
Mrs Dot Love (0-3-7) has gone close in this race, with 2 seconds (10/3 & 40/1) and 1 third (33/1) from her 7 representatives.
Gordon Elliot (0-1-1), Philip Rothwell (0-1-3) & Tony Martin (0-1-7) have each saddled 1 placed finisher.
British trained runners (0-3-13) have not had many runners recently but 3 places from 13 runners is a fair return considering Enda Bolger’s dominance.

Jockeys
If we exclude 2008 when no jockey claimed an allowance we can see that having a more experienced jockey (who therefore is not claiming) is a great advantage.
Jockeys not claiming an allowance: 9-12-76
Jockeys claiming an allowance: 0-6-67
J T McNamara (5-0-10) has won 5 of the last 10, mainly because he has often been riding Enda Bolger’s first string.
Nina Carberry (2-4-7) also has a fine record, benefitting from riding for Bolger.
John Cullen (1-1-5) & Ken Whelan (1-1-7) are the 2 jockeys to ride non-Bolger winners.
Ciaran Murphy (0-4-6) is a claimer who has done well, making the frame on 4 of 6 rides.

Racing Tactics
7 of 10 winners led or raced prominently
2 of 10 winners were settled in midfield
Only 1 of 10 winners was held up in rear

Price
9 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
Favourites (4-1-11) have won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 1.25.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 7 to 11 (or won the race before)
· French or Irish bred
· Allotted 12-3+
· Finished in the first 7 last time in the past 55 days
· Won 2+ chases under rules (or won a pt to pt last time)
· Previously won a point to point
· Ran in a point to point or hurdles race this season
· Won over 3M+
· Won around the Punchestown banks course before
· Ran around the banks course at 2011 Festival
· Finished in first 3 in a X-Country Chase at Cheltenham in Nov/Dec
· Finished in first 7 in Cheltenham Festival X-Country Chase
· Trained by Enda Bolger
· Ridden by a non-claiming jockey
· Ridden by J T McNamara, N Carberry or J Cullen
· Tends to race prominently
· From the first 3 in the betting

[ganjaman2]

PUNCHESTOWN CHAMPION BUMPER TRENDS 2012



The betchronicle.com Champion INH Flat Race takes place on day 2 of the Punchestown Festival on Wednesday 25th April. A grade 1 run over 2 miles, it should attract several runners from the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, from which 3 of the last 4 winners of this have come.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:


Age
4yo: 2-4-23
5yo: 3-9-80
6yo: 4-6-50
7yo: 1-1-11
No very strong stats on ages of winners.

Gender
Mares (1-3-27) have won 1 of last 10 from approximately 16.5% of total runners.

Breeding
Irish bred: 9-16-121
French bred: 1-1-8
NZ bred: 0-1-1
USA bred: 0-1-3
GB bred: 0-1-11
German bred: 0-0-2
7 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winner (2 of 3 exceptions sired by a stallion that was placed in either the French Derby or English 2000 Guineas, other was sired by a Sadler's Wells stallion who ran just twice)
8 of 10 winners sired by a stallion that won or placed in a European Classic

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out (2 exceptions ran in Cheltenham or Aintree bumpers last time)
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August
10 fo 10 winners had won 1 to 3 bumpers
10 of 10 winners won a bumper with 10 or more runners
6 of 10 winners had won a bumper by 6+ lengths (2 exceptions had finished in first 2 in Champion Bumper)
6 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 or 2 bumper
2 of 10 winners had won at Punchestown (other 8 having first run here)
9 of 10 winners had won at a right-handed track
8 of 8 Irish-trained winners won a bumper at Punchestown, Fairyhouse, Limerick or Navan

Other Races
Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner (Champagne Fever): 4211 (2-1-4)
www.leopardstown.com 4yo INH Flat Race winner (Jezki): 712 (1-1-3)
Kevin McManus Bookmaker bumper winner (Summer Star): 0412 (1-1-4)
N Carberry Meath Sportsperson Of Year Bumper winner (Champagne Fever): 81 (1-0-2)
Killiney (Pro/Am) 4yo INH Flat Race winner (Jezki): 32 (0-2-2)
Kevin Frost Memorial INH Flat Race winner (Mozoltov): 66 (0-0-2)
Dark Horse Cafe At Down Royal INH Flat Race winner (Fickle Fortune): 68 (0-0-2)
Mooncoyne INH Flat Race winner (Mumbo Jumbo): 08 (0-0-2)
Kieran O'Connell Injured Jockeys Fund INH Flat Race winner (Pique Sous): 704 (0-0-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Champion bumper, finishing 64110
2 of 10 winners ran in the Future Champions Bumper, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in William & Gladys Bourke Bumper, finishing 12

Trainers
Noel Meade (3-2-9) has gained 3 wins and 2 places from 9 runners in this.
Willie Mullins (2-2-21) has trained 2 of the last 4 winners.
Philip Fenton (1-2-4) has saddled a winner & 2 places from 4 runners.
Nicky Henderson (1-0-3) is only other trainer with an entry to have won this since 2002.
British trained horses (2-1-18) have won 2 of the last 10.

Racing Tactics
9 of 10 winners were positioned in the first 7 at the halfway point
This is not a race you want to be too far forward or too far back. The winner has generally been tracking the leaders or settled in midfield. No horse has managed to make all in this race.

Price
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were sent off 10/1 or shorter
No very strong trends on prices though the longest priced winner since 2002 has been 14/1 and 6 of last 7 winners went off 8/1 or shorter.
Favourites (3-2-11) have won 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 0.35.


Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Sired by a group 1 or 2 winner on flat (ideally placed in a classic)
· Run 2 to 5 times since August
· Finish 1st or 2nd last time (or ran at Aintree/Cheltenham)
· Won 1 to 3 bumpers
· Won a bumper with 10+ runners
· Won a bumper by 6 lengths or more
· Contested a grade 1 or 2
· Won bumper at Limerick, Fairyhouse Punchestown or Navan
· Finished in first 6 in Cheltenham Champion Bumper
· Finished in first 2 in Future Champions and/or William & Gladys Bourke Bumper
· Trained by Noel Mead, Willie Mullins or Philip Fenton
· Priced 10/1 or shorter

[ganjaman2]

RYANAIR NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2012








The Ryanair Swordlestown Novice Chase takes place at Punchestown on Thursday 26th April. A grade 1 novice chase run over 2 miles, it has been won by some of the best Irish chasers of recent times, including Moscow Flyer, War Of Attrition and Big Zeb.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-0-3
6yo: 1-0-10
7yo: 3-8-26
8yo: 4-3-18
9yo: 1-0-7
10yo: 0-0-1
No very strong trends on ages but 8yos have the best record having won 4 of the last 10 from approximately 27.7% of the runners and seen 7 of their 18 representatives make the places.

Breeding
Irish bred: 9-8-50
French bred: 1-2-6
British bred: 0-1-6
German bred: 0-0-2
American bred: 0-0-1
Irish bred horses have won 9 of last 10, though they have represented 77% of the total runners.
3 of the 6 French bred runners have made the places.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (3 exceptions unplaced in Arkle or Maghulls)
9 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 times over fences
8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
9 of 10 winners were rated 126+ over hurdles
8 of 10 winners had previously fallen over fences
9 of 10 winners had first ever run in a bumper/hurdle or pt to pt

Other races
Arkle winner: 121 (2-1-3)
Highest placed finisher from the Arkle: 12B2112241 (4-4-10)
Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Blackstairmountain): 1F52 (1-1-4)
Bet With williamhill.com On Mobile Novices Chase winner (Menorah): 2 (0-1-1)
Buck House Novice Chase winner (Lucky William): 2U (0-1-2)
7 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 1F7F581
3 of 10 winners ran in the Maghulls Novice Chase, finishing 126
2 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing 1F
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in the Powers Gold Cup, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in November Novice Chase, finishing 12

Trainers
British based trainers (3-2-7) have won this race in 3 of the 5 times they’ve been represented in the past 10 years.
Philips Hobbs (1-0-1) trained Captain Chris to win this in 2011.
Willie Mullins (1-1-7) has gained a win and a place from his 7 runners.
Mouse Morris (1-0-2) trained the winner in 2001 & 2005, the only 2 years since the turn of the century in which he was represented.
Noel Meade (0-2-5) has saddled the runner-up 4 times since 2000.

Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
All 10 winners went off 6/1 or shorter.
Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 5.26.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 8 or younger (especially 8yos)
· Irish or French bred
· Finished in the first 3 last time out in past 55 days
· Rated 126+ over hurdles
· Run 4 to 8 times over fences
· Won 1 to 4 chases
· Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
· Ran in the Arkle at Cheltenham
· First 2 in Powers Gold Cup, Racing Post and/or November Nov Chase
· Trained in Britain or by Mouse Morris
· From the first 4 in the betting (6/1 or shorter)

[ganjaman2]

CHAMPION 4YO HURDLE TRENDS 2012



The AES Champion Four Year Old Hurdle is the highlight of the final day of this year’s Punchestown Festival, Saturday 28th April. A grade 1 run over 2 miles for 4yos, it usually attracts several from the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham and has been won by a British raider in 7 of the last 10 years.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age
Race for 4yos.

Gender
Mares (1-2-11) have done as well as one would have expected, winning 1 of the past 10 renewals from approximately 10.7% of the runners. 2 of the 3 females to make the frame were runner-up in a juvenile hurdle at Cheltenham Festival and other was unbeaten.

Breeding
Irish bred: 5-15-65
German bred: 2-0-2
French bred: 2-0-11
British bred: 1-2-16
Japanese bred: 0-1-1
American bred: 0-0-8
Irish bred runners have won 5 of 10 but represented over 63% of total runners, so actually have a poor record.
Both German bred horses to run in this were victorious. Horses bred on the continent have won 4 of 10 but have only represented 14.6% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start (3 exceptions unplaced in Triumph or Anniversary Hurdle)
10 of 10 winners posted career high RPR in last 2 runs (7 last time out)
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times over hurdles since September
7 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 times over hurdles
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
4 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
9 of 10 winners had run on the flat (exception began in a French 3yo hurdle)

Other races
Triumph Hurdle winner (Countrywide Flame): 22 (0-2-2)
Record of 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Triumph Hurdle: 32301314122141 (5-5-14)
Record of horses placed in the Fred Winter: 2242 (0-3-4)
Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner (Hisaabaat): 2582F514 (1-2-8)
UAE Embassy 3yo Juvenile Hurdle winner (His Excellency): 27041 (1-1-5)
Follow @AscotInsider On Twitter Juv Hurdle winner (Balder Success): 1 (1-0-1)
West Sound Juvenile Hurdle winner (Lexi's Boy): 1 (1-0-1)
Racing Again On Sat 21st January 4yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Sportsmaster): 1 (1-0-1)
Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle winner (Secret Edge): 1 (1-0-1)
Anniversary 4yo Novice Hurdle winner (Grumeti): 194 (1-0-3)
Freeman Keane Associates 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle winner (Arnaud): 2F (0-1-2)
Eventsec 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle winner (Blue Cannon): F673 (0-1-4)
Festival Hospitality On Sale 3yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Shadow Catcher): FB24 (0-1-4)
Visit Punchestown.com Juvenile Hurdle winner (Ut De Sivola): F5026 (0-1-5)
paddypower.com iPhone App 3yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Chill): 56 (0-0-2)
Finesse Juvenile Hurdle winner (Grumeti): 34 (0-0-2)
8 of 10 winners had run in the Triumph Hurdle, finishing 94043923
5 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Anniversary 4yo Hurdle last time, finishing 1922B
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle, finsihing 222
3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Wendsleydale Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 135
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Spring Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 21

Trainers
British trained runners (7-3-24) have a super record in this race, winning 7 of the last 10 renewals (in 2 of 3 runnings they didn’t win, they had no representative).
Willie Mullins (1-2-12) has won the race twice since 2001, but both years he trained the winner there were no British-trained runners in it.
Eddie O’Grady (1-1-3) has gained 1 win (5/2) and 1 place (33/1) from 3 runners.
Paul Nicholls (1-0-2) trained the winner in 2003.
Philip Hobbs (0-1-1) has seen his 2 runners since 2000 both finish 2nd while Alan King (0-1-2) has gained a 2nd and a 4th from his 2 runners in this in past 10 years.
Noel Meade (0-1-7), Dermot Weld (0-0-3) and Dessie Hughes (0-0-4) both have poor records in this, their cumulative 14 runners in the past 10 years have produced no wins and just 1 place.

Price
9 of the 10 winners (last 7) came from the first 3 in the betting
Only 1 winner since 2002 went off at bigger than 7/1.
Favourites (2-4-10) have won just 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 2.00

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· French & German breds do well
· Sired by a group winner on the flat
· Ran on the flat (rated 70+)
· Run 2 to 6 times since September
· Won 1 to 3 times over hurdles
· Finished in first 3 last time in past 50 days
· Posted career high RPR in last 2 outings
· Ran in the Triumph Hurdle
· Finished in first 2 in Anniversary and/or Prestbury Hurdle
· Trained in Britain or by Eddie O’Grady
· First 3 in the betting