3:45 Newbury – Berry Bros & Rudd Magnum Spring Mile sat 21st april

[ganjaman2]

my thoughts for this race


3:45 Newbury – Berry Bros & Rudd Magnum Spring Mile




The most startling fact surrounding the Spring Cup is that each of the last 10 renewals has been won by a 4yo or 5yo, or at least they had until the 6yo Light From Mars spoiled the party last year. Therefore, despite last year’s blip the sensible call has to be to oppose Mull Of Killough, Vainglory, Global Village and Fantasy Gladiator. In actual fact it is the 4yos that have the best record winning 7 of those previous 10 renewals with 5yos scooping the other 3, which I shall bear in mind when drawing up the final shortlist.


Unsurprisingly, the draw has also had a major part to play in past renewals of this race as each of the last 10 winners came from a double figure draw. With that in mind I would also look to be against Take It To The Max (3), Highland Knight (4), Capaill Liath (9), Mont Ras (2), captain Bertie (7) and The Titchborne (6). Incidentally, 6 of those 10 winners came from stalls 10 to 14, suggesting that the middle of the track is the place to be, and if that trend is to be believed, that implies that Pintura (10), Karaka Jack (11), Sinfonico (12), Emilio Largo (13) and Maverik (14) could be ideally placed.


The Spring Cup has been a bit of a graveyard for backers of the ‘jolly’. There has only been one winning favourite in the last 11 runnings; Sir Michael Stoute’s Lang Shining, and even then he was sent off the 9/2 joint favourite. The remaining 10 winners had all started with a double figure SP. Markets for races such as this often flip-flop in the build up to the off but at the time of writing Captain Bertie currently heads the betting at around the 11/2 mark with Fury at 8/1 and Mull Of Killough at 9/1. Interestingly, the first and last of this trio have already been discounted.


These are the 3 strongest trends surrounding this race but there are a few others to bear in mind. 7 of the last 11 winners had already raced that year and therefore a degree of caution does need to be shown around the seasonal debutants Labarinto, Emilio Largo, Vainglory, Dubawi Sound, Heddwyn and Cruiser.


Additionally, 6 of the last 11 winners achieved a top 4 finish on their most recent start and of those that have already run this season 11 horses actually match this trend.


As the past 10 winners have won the Spring Cup off a variety of weights and ratings there is little to be learned from this, so the final trend to consider is which races have provided the most winners. Whilst you would automatically assume that the Lincoln has proved the best guide, in fact there are 2 other races which have both supplied two recent winners. Mastermind, El Coto and Light From Mars had finished 4th,17th and 8th respectively in the Lincoln before improving to win here, so let’s have a look at this year’s contest. Of course, the race was won impressively by Brae Hill who doesn’t line up here but Mull of Killough (2nd), Fury (3rd) and Edinburgh Knight (4th) all do.


Another race that has supplied two recent winners from Doncaster is the Spring Mile as The Judge and Extraterrestrial had finished 18th and 2ndrespectively prior to winning here. Captain Bertie was perhaps an unfortunate 4th in this year’s contest.


Wolverhampton’s Lincoln Trail is another race to have supplied two recent winners; Forgery and Extraterrestrial who had finished 4th and 7th respectively. This year’s renewal went the way of Nazreef who has won again since at Kempton. Pintura was 9th and The Titchborne 13th.


Shortlist


Nazreef


Pintura


Emilio Largo


George Guru


Conclusion


If memory serves NAZREEF was the selection for this race last year when he ran well to finish 5th, beaten less than 2L by the winner. The ground was pretty quick last year which I don’t think would have played into his hands and the conditions tomorrow may be much more to his liking as long as it isn’t too soft. Once again he has had a good spring, winning the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton and a competitive little contest at Kempton a fortnight ago which has seen his AW rating increase to 103. So, although you cannot completely rely on AW and turf form matching up, the fact that he races on Saturday off 87 does suggest that he is a step ahead of the handicapper if he can prove as effective on turf. He seems to be drawn well and Darryll Holland does seem to get on well with the horse having won on him twice. 18/1 isn’t a bad price taking all of that into account.


Pintura actually finished runner-up in this race last season off a 5lb lower mark than he does tomorrow. However, although he does go on any ground I think he is suited to a little bit of cut judged on his past performances so he does look overpriced at 28/1. He hasn’t run as badly as his recent form figures suggest and as he is 4lb lower now and has Jamie Spencer booked to ride, connections are seemingly hopeful of a better performance.


Emilio Largo progressed steadily last season but seemed to improve for each run. He makes his seasonal reappearance off a mark 6lb higher than when winning a soft ground handicap at Sandown but there is every chance that he will continue improving as a 4yo and it is possible that he has a big handicap in him, if not here, later in the season.


Finally, George Guru just hasn’t stopped improving after a modest introduction at Kempton last year. He is a bit of a gamble having never raced on turf before but I see no reason why he shouldn’t and he could prove the dark horse of the race as he gets on so well with apprentice Mark Coumbe whose 5lb claim could be invaluable.