my bets and thoughts for day 4 @ punchestown -friday 27th april

[ganjaman2]

Due to the almost waterlogged conditions, the race programme is all change for Friday with the Grade 1 Ryanair Novice Chase (abandoned on Thursday) moved to kick off the Friday card where officials have dumped the two hunter chases, the 2m handicap chase and the novices’ handicap chase protecting the chase course for Saturday, meaning another five-race card of which three are Grade 1 affairs.

4.55 RYANAIR NOVICE CHASE
I covered this race for Thursday’s card which now kicks off Friday’s card (the only chase race they dare run on Friday and first up too just in case it rains during the card I imagine) so below is the previous day’s copy. Shot From The Hip, who won the Grade 1 novice hurdle over 2m at this meeting last year, has since been added to the race, doubtless because he handles testing ground well but he has been a bit disappointing over fences for me and not in the same class as Menorah and First Lieutenant, though as we know, ability to handle conditions may be the most important factor.

The Punchestown equivalent of the Arkle Trophy has surprisingly witnessed older novices faring much the best with only two of the last 16 winners aged under seven and one of those was a subsequent Gold Cup winner in War Of Attrition. That doesn’t bode well for the five-year-old, Kumbeshwar. Older novices (and by that I am referring to eight-year-olds and older) fare far better in this race than they do the other big two novice chases over two miles at the spring Festivals. Just two Arkle winners since 1990 have been aged older than seven (both Irish-trained) but this Punchestown contest has witnessed six such winners in the last 13 years. The eight-year-old Lucky William is the only horse aged over seven in today’s line up.

As you may expect the Arkle Trophy is by far and away the most illuminating guide highlighting ten of the last 15 winners and Menorah (third) and Blackstairmountain (fifth) represent that race, though only six horses contested the Arkle this year. You would have to question whether Blackstairmountain will handle this testing ground though.

The other two races to have featured more than three winners in the last ten years are the Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree (unrepresented this year) and the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas Meeting won by Blackstairmountain on much better ground than he will face here.

As with the Arkle and Maghull, this two-mile Grade 1 novice chase has been a friend to punters with only one of the last 17 winners starting at bigger than 6/1. The favourite, however, was on a losing streak of seven years until Captain Chris justified odds of 4/6 last season but that followed a strong run of the market leader winning six of the previous eight renewals. The Brits have won on five of the last eight occasions when they have sent over contenders and have a strong claim again with Menorah the form pick over Kumbeshwar.

SHORT LIST

MENORAH


FIRST LIEUTENANT

CONCLUSION


MENORAH looked happier over 2m4f than 2m when an easy winner of the Manifesto Chase at Aintree last time out but it could just be that he is getting better with practice plus the heavy ground should ensure that they go that beat slower so it may race more like a 2m4f race to help his jumping rhythm. He is the trends horse having finished third in the Arkle, being British trained and sure to start below 6/1 and he is also the form horse so it’s a question of whether he is still in the same heart as he was at Aintree, and if he is, then he will take the beating here in his bid to give his owner and trainer consecutive wins in this race following Captain Chris last season. FIRST LIEUTENANT is likely to be his main market rival having finished second in Grade 1 races on his last two starts but he is dropping back from a personal best over 3m down to 2m here and prefers a decent surface. The slower ground could offset the drop in trip of course and he is all class as he showed when beating Rock On Ruby in a photo for last season’s Neptune and was a very good second to Bobs Worth in the RSA Chase. Five others take on this class pair but I wouldn’t be mad keen to try and get them beat. Blackstairmountain is a dual Grade 1 winner but he has lost his way since Christmas and hated the testing ground in the Irish Arkle which has to be a concern. Lucky William won a handicap at the Easter Fairyhouse Meeting and a Grade 2 earlier in the season and handles a cut in the ground so he could be the one to shake up the big two.


5.30 RABOBANK CHAMPION HURDLE


No surprise that Overturn has not been declared on this desperate ground with the Chester Cup not far away which he will bid to win in successive years. That leaves five declarations which will probably end up being four runners as Quevega runs on Thursday meaning a shoot out between Hurricane Fly bidding for a third win in the race, last year’s runner-up and stablemate, Thousand Stars, another stablemate in the heavy-ground loving Zaidpour for owner Rich Ricci who has already had a 1-2-3 ina Grade 1 this week (the 3m novice hurdle won by Marasonnien) and also won the Grade 1 bumper with Champagne Fever, and the field is made up the increasingly disappointing The Real Article who was seriously over-rated at the beginning of the season.

The Champion Hurdle is the best place to start where Hurricane Fly finished third some seven lengths clear of Zaidpour in eighth. Hurricane Fly clearly wasn’t at his best that day and got warm beforehand and although he handles very bad ground, I think there is more chance of his class shining through on a better surface. Zaidpour, on the other hand, relishes this kind of ground. The Istabraq Hurdle at Leopardstown’s Christmas Meeting won by Unaccompanied (waiting for the Flat Season) from Thousand Stars has been the best Irish guide having featured the winner in seven of the last 13 runnings so it is marginally even outperforming the Champion Hurdle. Three of the last seven winners either won or finished second in the BHP Irish Champion Hurdle won by Hurricane Fly. Thousand Stars ran a cracking second to Oscar Whisky in the Aintree Hurdle last time out in what is a significant guide with four of the last 12 winners taking part but there is only a fortnight between the races this year.

Only two of the last 13 winners failed to make the frame on their previous start over hurdles which is against Zaidpour and The Real Article. Just two favourites since this became a Grade1 in 1999 have won so far (both were odds on at 1-4 and 1-2) but forecast backers who supported the second-favourite to beat the favourite have collected on six occasions in the last nine years. That tells us there isn’t too much wrong with the favourites and that we should stick to pretty much the obvious given how the front two in the market regularly dominate the finish.

SHORT LIST

HURRICANE FLY


THOUSAND STARS

CONCLUSION


Even if HURRICANE FLY runs to the level of his below-par third in the Champion Hurdle then that should be enough for him to register a third straight win in this race in the very likely absence of Quevega. He handles testing ground as we saw when he won the Irish Champion Hurdle on his seasonal debut but he may have been a bit flat at Cheltenham due to that very run which could have taken more out of him than was thought likely given it came on bad ground after nine months off. If the favourite does bomb out or shows signs of temperament like Montjeu’s can (and he did get warm before the Champion Hurdle), it’s a toss up between Thousand Stars and Zaidpour which can take advantage. The ground would be in Zaidpour’s favour but THOUSAND STARS has been contesting and running well in the right races and he strikes me as the most likely to give Mullins a 1-2 inthis race and emulate last season’s result when Hurricane Fly beat Thousand Stars by five lengths into second.


6.05 CATHAL RYAN MEMORIAL CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE


The Punchestown Festiva’s equivalent of the Neptune being a Grade 1 race taking place over a 1f shorter trip (2m4f), Willie Mullins has won 50% of renewals in the last ten years and he is represented here by theNeptunerunner-up, Felix Yonger. Two of his five winners contested the Neptune which has been the key race as three of the last six winners finished first or second in Cheltenham’s 2m5f novice hurdle championship event. Furthermore, only five horses that finished second or third in theNeptunehave run here since it became a Grade 1 race in 1995 with Reve De Sivola winning and three others placed again. Also note that seven of the last 14 winners ran at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting where Dedigout was a well-backed winner of a 24-runner handicap hurdle. At that same meeting Jenari won the Grade 2 novice hurdle over this trip where he had Lyreen Legend (third beaten 4½ lengths) and Texas Jack (seventh beaten a further ten lengths) behind.

The fact that 14 winners of the last 15 winners were aged five or six (the black sheep being last season’s winner, Spirit Of Adjisa, at the age of seven), that doesn’t bode well for the only seven-year-old, Fitz Legend. Favourites have a great record of late winning six of the last eight runnings which is another plus point for Felix Yonger. Also note that last-time-out winners have won nine of the last 11 runnings. This is where Felix Yonger doesn’t qualify but he was taking on Simonsig on that occasion and did finish 11 lengths clear of the third in theNeptuneso it would be madness to oppose him on that basis. Dedigout and Jenari’s chances can be marked up however being the only two last-time-out winners in the race.

The Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle over 2m2f on Irish Hennessy Day won by Benefficient used to be the most influential guide until recently but it is still very much respected having highlighted three of the last 13 winners. In addition to the Deloitte, the other Leopardstown race to have highlighted more than one recent winner is the Grade 2 Synergy Security Services Novice Hurdle (better known as the Golden Cygnet Hurdle) in January won by Boston Bob who gave weight and a beating to Lyreen Legend who represents that form today.

SHORT LIST

FELIX YONGER


DEDIGOUT


JENARI

CONCLUSION


Having finished second in the best guide (the Neptune) and trained by Willie Mullins gunning for a sixth win in this novice hurdle, it is very hard to take on FELIX YONGER from a trends or form perspective in a race where favourites also have a very strong record. That will be reflected in his price however so if you don’t fancy the likely short odds on heavy ground and prefer an alternative then the two Fairyhouse winners make most appeal. The course and distance winner on testing ground DEDIGOUT looks like he will stay all day and is a big, shouldery horse so he has a good chance of sloshing through these conditions and an attritional 2m4f might just be right up his street. Trained by Tony Martin for Gigginstown Stud, connections have high hopes that he can go right to the top when he fills his big frame. JENARI won the Grade 2 at Fairyhouse over Easter and he was also third in the Grade 1 bumper at this meeting last season. The ground might be a problem though as his Fairyhouse win was on good ground (which made Dedigout’s winning performance at the same meeting all the better on g/s ground given he looks like he might end up being a mudlark) as was his third in the Grade 1 bumper at this meeting 12 months ago. He does come here off a win however and that has been important down the years hence his short list inclusion.

6.40 STAR BEST FOR RACING COVERAGE NOVICE HURDLE


Sizing Europe won this 2m4f novice hurdle for horses with no more than one win over hurdles back in 2007 which has been won by the favourite or joint-favourite in four of the last five years. NickyHenderson’s Kid Cassidy took the honours last season and this year he is double handed with Malt Master and Oscara Dara.

SHORT LIST

TANGO BENBOU


TERMINAL


OSCARA DARA

CONCLUSION


Regards the Henderson pair, Malt Master has the sexier profile being bought by J P McManus before he made a winning debut over hurdles (his only start over hurdles) but that run was 153 days ago and he is fairly speedily-bred so I am not sure a slog in this ground over 2m4f on his second hurdles start after near six months off is ideal so maybe OSCARA DARA could be his main hope. Fourth beaten 16 lengths by Darlan at Aintree two weeks ago, at least we know he is in decent heart and has race fitness on his side plus he showed he handled soft ground when a good second in an Ascot bumper. Willie Mullins is also double handed and firing in the winners as usual at this meeting and there is not a lot between Tango Banbou and Terminal on the figures. TANGO BANBOU probably doesn’t know what is coming up next as he started off in France in two bumpers, then had a race over fences, was then given a run over hurdles before having six more chase starts only to then to run in two more bumpers before going back over fences for three more starts (the last two for Mullins) and then back to hurdles last time out. That last time out run, however, saw him make all at 50/1 on testing ground so hurdling looks the way to go with him and we need a horse that can keep galloping on this surface. TERMINAL put four straight wins together (three in bumpers) before his winning streak came to and end last time out when third of four behind the classy Galileo’s Choice and the Kim Muir runner-up, Becauseicouldntsee. I thought he should have run a bit better but this step up to 2m4f could be what he wants. Charles Byrnes is also double handed with Captain Dancer and Wolf Hall who both arrive here off wins but the first named’s victory was 226 days ago and he is unraced since whilst the latter is by Presenting whose stock tend to prefer decent ground which was the surface he won on at Limerick.


7.10 ITBA FILLIES BUMPER

We didn’t get much luck in the closing bumper on Day 2 as the deteriorating conditions meant that ALL four horses on the short list were non runners! That took some doing. Regards this fillies’ bumper, just the 24 to choose from on desperate ground of which ten are unraced. No wonder bookies are in business but I said I would attempt to cover all races at this meeting so here goes.

SHORT LIST

LUGHNASA


LADY OF GLENCOE


SCOTIA’S GLEN


GOLDEN ELECTRA

CONCLUSION


Willie Mullins has already won two bumpers at this meeting and he runs three unraced fillies here namely Chiltern Hills, Tasitocht and Glens Melody. Who knows which is best and how good they could be and although none make the short list (as we have no evidence to judge them on), it would come as no shock if he waltzed off with yet another bumper winner here. I’ll take the view that a previous run should be an advantage for both a fitness and experience advantage so a recent run would also be preferred. Robert Tyner won this race last year and is represented this time by LUGHNASA and Way Up In The Air. The latter has more experience but Lughnasa won her only bumper last month and the runner-up franked the form when finishing second in a 23-runner bumper here on the opening day. LADY OF GLENCOE finished second to Summer Star (took her chance in the Grade 1 bumper on Wednesday) so is one of the more obvious ones as that would be the best form in the race but it was on good ground. Tom Cooper has won the Weatherbys Champion Bumper before with a mare and his fillies/mares are worth noting in bumpers and he runs SCOTIA’S GLEN who won a point-to-point last time out. That was 3m and she is by Our Vic so she should be enjoying this ground more than most. More of a stab in the dark is Alan King’s GOLDEN ELECTRA. Unusual that King should bring a bumper filly over and maybe her owner (the racehorse photographer Mel Fordham) is working there and wants to see her run but perhaps it is more than that as she was quite well fancied for her only start and ran much better than her finishing position of seventh suggested. That run should have mentally sharpened her up.