VICTORIA CUP TRENDS 2012

[ganjaman2]

The big handicap on Saturday 12th May is the Betfred Victoria Cup at Ascot, a class 2 heritage handicap run over 7 furlongs. It always attracts a big field and the draw can often make a big difference. In 2005 the race was run at Lingfield.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 6-11-97
5yo: 3-10-76
6yo: 1-4-36
7yo+: 0-5-39
9 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5
4yos have won 6 of the last 10 runnings from 39% of the total runners.
Horses aged 6+ have managed just 1 win and 9 places from 75 runners (over 30% of total runners) in the past 10 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 9-0 or more: 2-16-98
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 7-10-84
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-4-66
7 of 10 winners carried 8-7 to 8-13 & they represented just 34% of total runners.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 98 or higher: 1-8-56
Horses rated 90 to 97: 6-20-124
Horses rated 89 or lower: 3-2-68
7 of the last 8 winners have been officially rated between 90 and 99. That range has also accounted for the 27 of the 32 places in the last 8 years.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run no more than twice that year
9 of 10 winners won over 7F or further
9 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or higher last time
8 of 10 winners won a race worth 9K+
8 of 10 winners won at class 3 or higher
8 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps (2 exceptions post an RPR of 103+ on previous start)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Hawkeyethenoo): 0440 (0-2-4)
R. Draper Ltd 65th Anniversary Handicap winner (Skilful): 1 (1-0-1)
Betfair Summer Double International winner (Bronze Prince): 40 (0-1-2)
Bunbury Cup winner (Brae Hill): 70 (0-0-2)
Record of horses placed in previous Bunbury Cup: 01841 (2-1-5)
totescoop6 Challenge Cup winner (Pastoral Player): 080 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Ayr Gold Cup, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's International Stakes, finishing 03
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Bunbury Cup, finishing 24

Trainers
Brian Meehan (1-1-3), Jim Goldie (1-1-5) and Dandy Nicholls (1-1-17) are the only 3 trainers with runners this year to have won it since 2002 and they trained the first 3 home last year.

Draw (ignoring 2005 race at Lingfield)
Horses drawn 1 to 9: 4-11-81
Horses drawn 10 to 19: 3-13-90
Horses drawn 21 or higher: 2-3-59
No very strong trends on the draw though in past 10 years, 7 of 12 places were filled by horses drawn 1 to 9.

Racing Tactics (ignoring 2005 race at Lingfield)
8 of 9 winners were held up in midfield or in rear
Only one winner of the race at Ascot since 2002 raced prominently throughout.

Price
No very strong trend on prices with 3 winning favourites and 5 winners priced 14/1 or bigger.
Favourites (3-3-12) have gained 3 wins in the past ten years, giving a level stakes profit of 2.75.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5
· Carrying 8-7 to 8-13
· Officially rated 90 to 99
· Run no more than twice in 2012
· Ran a class 2 or higher last time out in past 40 days
· Won over 7F+
· Won a class 3 or higher worth 9K+
· Placed in 2011 Bunbury Cup
· Tends to be held up
· Trained Brian Meehan or Jim Goldie

[ganjaman2]

my thoughts



3:25 Ascot – Betfred Victoria Cup


Being an early season handicap there are only a few really solid trends to rely on when looking for the winner of the Victoria Cup. The first concerns the winners’ age as 4 & 5yos have won nine of the last 10 runnings and therefore I would have to think long and hard about supporting one of the runners aged six or above including last year’s winner Hawkeyethenoo and the Lincoln winner Brae Hill as well as the more fancied runners Global Village and Imperial Guest. On a more positive note, 4yos have won six of the last 10 renewals so horses such as King Of Jazz, Lightning Cloud and White Frost deserve a closer look.


When it comes to official ratings seven of the last eight winners came from a bracket between 92-99 so that would suggest that top-weights Pastoral Player and Hawkeyethenoo have a bit to prove along with all of those down from Tariq Too.


The draw in any large field handicap over this sort of trip is always going to prove vital especially when racing on extreme ground such as tomorrow. However, the trends don’t offer a solution one way or another as three previous winners were drawn on the far side, four down the centre and two on the stands rail. For this stat I have excluded the 2005 result when the race was run at Lingfield. But on soft ground I am always inclined to stick with a runner on the stands rail as that ground does at least get a little shelter from the Grandstand, so high numbers are a personal preference.


Seven of the last 10 Victoria Cup winners had made one start during the current season, three of which had been last time out winners, so the likes of Brae Hill and Tariq Too earn a little reprieve. Over the past decade there has been an even spread of winning trainers so it would be harsh to class anyone in particular in a positive or negative light.


The betting doesn’t really offer any help as although there has been three recent winning favourites there has also been some pretty big-priced winners – 14/1, 16/1 x2, 25/1 & 33/1 but even so I would still be inclined to side with the first half a dozen or so in the betting.


Shortlist


King Of Jazz


Tariq Too


Lightning Cloud


Kakatosi


Conclusion


Although I have a personal idea of how the draw will work out tomorrow I am playing it safe and sticking two from each side on the shortlist.


In no particular order, King Of Jazz showed himself to be a pretty consistent handicapper last season. After beating the progressive Firebeam on his reappearance in a Doncaster maiden, the only time he didn’t show his full colours was when dropped down to 6f. From a trends point of view he is in the right age, handicap and betting bracket and has had the desired number of runs when he finished a very respectable 3rd at Doncaster last month despite the 6f not looking ideal. Stall 5 could turn out to be a very good draw if that part of the track rides quickest and the only negative is that he is yet to race on ground as slow as this although something tells me that he might just handle it.


There is no such concern about the second horse on the shortlist Tariq Too who was a soft ground Goodwood winner on his final start of 2011 and followed that with another soft ground victory at Thirsk on his reappearance. He is now 12lb higher than when recording the first of those two victories but this son of Kyllachy may not have stopped improving just yet. Again, he fits nicely with all of the major trends although strictly speaking he is 1lb lower than ideal but his stall 4 draw looks ideal if that side proves the place to be.


With a more central draw Lightning Cloud earns the third spot on the shortlist as he sits nicely with the trends although a previous start this season would have been even better. After showing only modest form as a juvenile, this colt by Sleeping Indian won five times last season which saw his official mark rise from 69 to its current 95. He looks to be a real 7f specialist and although he looks at his very best on a sounder surface, he did run a nice race in defeat on Good to Soft over course and distance last season.


I am taking a punt on the fourth selection as on form Kakatosi looks to have plenty to find. However, he is in the right age and weight bracket and has had the desired number of runs. This Pastoral Pursuits gelding won four 7f races on the spin during his 3yo season so clearly has plenty of ability but he kept rising up the weights and therefore he struggled for much of last season off his lofty mark. On occasions he offered a glimpse of his past form but overall he failed to recapture his best from the previous year. But now he finds himself only 1lb higher than when last winning at Kempton in 2010 and is therefore entitled to run well especially if the high numbers do prove best as he is ideally placed to take advantage in stall 24.