QUEEN ANNE STAKES TRENDS 2012
The 2012 Royal Ascot meeting begins on Tuesday 19th June and the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes is a superb race to kick off what is five of the best days of flat racing you will see anywhere in the world this year. The great, Frankel, will be looking to extend his unbeaten record and it will be hard to find anything that can trouble him.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-0-1
4yo: 7-6-53
5yo: 3-6-29
6yo+: 0-6-17
10 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5
Not a whole lot to choose between the 4 and 5 year olds, though you have to go back to 1976 for the last winner aged over 5.
Gender
In 2010 Goldikova became first mare to win the since it was upgraded to Pattern status back in 1971
Nine fillies or mares have run in this in the past decade, finishing 762473212 (1-4-9).
7 of the 9 mares were sent off at less than 8/1 (5 were favourite)
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won over 1M to 1M 1F (exception had finished 2nd in previous year's St James Palace Stakes)
9 of 10 winners had had 9 to 17 career starts
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had won a Group 1
9 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season (exception had run 3 times)
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
Other Races
Record of horse that ran in previous year's race: 725007472322 (0-5-14)
Lockinge winner (Frankel): 724721 (1-2-6)
Lennox Stakes winner (Strong Suit): 291 (1-1-3)
Previous season's St James Palace winner (Frankel): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's Greenham Stakes winner (Frankel): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's 2000 Guineas winner (Frankel): 14 (1-0-2)
Hungerford Stakes winner (Excelebration): 01 (1-0-2)
Sussex Stakes winner (Frankel): 361 (1-0-3)
QEII Stakes winner (Frankel): 3246 (0-2-4)
Previous season's Jersey Stakes winner (Strong Suit): 32937 (0-2-5)
Prix du Moulin winner (Excelebration): 42 (0-1-2)
Park Stakes winner (Premio Loco): 3687 (0-1-4)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Lockinge Stakes last time, finishing 482641
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Ipshahan last time, finishing 11
3 of 10 winners ran in that season's Dubai Duty Free, finishing 088
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's St James Palace Stakes, finishing 521
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Sussex Stakes, finishing 231
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing 901
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in previous year's Prix de la Foret, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in previous year's Greenham Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's 2000 Guineas, finishing 13
Record of horses that ran in the Lockinge that season: 6-7-33
Record of horses that did not run in the Lockinge: 4-11-67
Trainers
British trained runners: 6-14-72
French trained runners: 2-3-12
Irish trained runners: 2-1-11 (both winners trained by A O’Brien)
Any other: 0-0-5
Saeed Bin Suroor (3-0-11) has won this 3 times in past 10 years, most recently in 2007.
Richard Hannon (2-1-7) & Aidan O’Brien (2-0-9) have each trained 2 of last 6 winners.
Michael Stoute (1-3-9) trained the 1st & 3rd in 2002, though his 6 runners since 2004 have produced just 1 place.
Freddie Head (1-1-4) saddled Goldikova to finish 1st & 2nd in last 2 years.
Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
Horses drawn in bottom 3 stalls: 4-8-27
Horses drawn in middle: 0-6-36
Horses drawn in top 3 stalls: 5-2-27
The last 9 winners at Ascot were drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls.
Price
9 of 10 winners went off 7/1 or shorter & came from first 4 in the betting
Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with all but one of the last 10 winners going off at single figure odds, however just one favourite has won the race in last 10 years.
Favourites (1-3-11) have gained just 1 win and 3 places since 2002, giving a level stakes profit of 7.63.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5
· Won over 1M to 1M 1F
· Has won a group 1
· Had 1 or 2 previous runs in 2012
· Has run in the past 40 days
· Ran in the Lockinge or Prix D’Isphahan last time out
· First 3 in Prix de la Foret, St James’s Palace and/or Sussex Stakes in 2011
· Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor, Richard Hannon or Aidan O’Brien
· Drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls
· Priced less than 7/1
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