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  1. #1
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Info ROYAL ASCOT - 2012 - 19TH -- 23RD JUNE DAY 1 [ TRENDS ]

    QUEEN ANNE STAKES TRENDS 2012


    The 2012 Royal Ascot meeting begins on Tuesday 19th June and the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes is a superb race to kick off what is five of the best days of flat racing you will see anywhere in the world this year. The great, Frankel, will be looking to extend his unbeaten record and it will be hard to find anything that can trouble him.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    3yo: 0-0-1
    4yo: 7-6-53
    5yo: 3-6-29
    6yo+: 0-6-17
    10 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5
    Not a whole lot to choose between the 4 and 5 year olds, though you have to go back to 1976 for the last winner aged over 5.

    Gender
    In 2010 Goldikova became first mare to win the since it was upgraded to Pattern status back in 1971
    Nine fillies or mares have run in this in the past decade, finishing 762473212 (1-4-9).
    7 of the 9 mares were sent off at less than 8/1 (5 were favourite)

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners won over 1M to 1M 1F (exception had finished 2nd in previous year's St James Palace Stakes)
    9 of 10 winners had had 9 to 17 career starts
    8 of 10 winners (last 8) had won a Group 1
    9 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season (exception had run 3 times)
    9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

    Other Races
    Record of horse that ran in previous year's race: 725007472322 (0-5-14)
    Lockinge winner (Frankel): 724721 (1-2-6)
    Lennox Stakes winner (Strong Suit): 291 (1-1-3)
    Previous season's St James Palace winner (Frankel): 1 (1-0-1)
    Previous season's Greenham Stakes winner (Frankel): 1 (1-0-1)
    Previous season's 2000 Guineas winner (Frankel): 14 (1-0-2)
    Hungerford Stakes winner (Excelebration): 01 (1-0-2)
    Sussex Stakes winner (Frankel): 361 (1-0-3)
    QEII Stakes winner (Frankel): 3246 (0-2-4)
    Previous season's Jersey Stakes winner (Strong Suit): 32937 (0-2-5)
    Prix du Moulin winner (Excelebration): 42 (0-1-2)
    Park Stakes winner (Premio Loco): 3687 (0-1-4)
    6 of 10 winners ran in the Lockinge Stakes last time, finishing 482641
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Ipshahan last time, finishing 11
    3 of 10 winners ran in that season's Dubai Duty Free, finishing 088
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's St James Palace Stakes, finishing 521
    3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Sussex Stakes, finishing 231
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing 901
    2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in previous year's Prix de la Foret, finishing 13
    2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in previous year's Greenham Stakes, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's 2000 Guineas, finishing 13
    Record of horses that ran in the Lockinge that season: 6-7-33
    Record of horses that did not run in the Lockinge: 4-11-67

    Trainers
    British trained runners: 6-14-72
    French trained runners: 2-3-12
    Irish trained runners: 2-1-11 (both winners trained by A O’Brien)
    Any other: 0-0-5
    Saeed Bin Suroor (3-0-11) has won this 3 times in past 10 years, most recently in 2007.
    Richard Hannon (2-1-7) & Aidan O’Brien (2-0-9) have each trained 2 of last 6 winners.
    Michael Stoute (1-3-9) trained the 1st & 3rd in 2002, though his 6 runners since 2004 have produced just 1 place.
    Freddie Head (1-1-4) saddled Goldikova to finish 1st & 2nd in last 2 years.

    Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
    Horses drawn in bottom 3 stalls: 4-8-27
    Horses drawn in middle: 0-6-36
    Horses drawn in top 3 stalls: 5-2-27
    The last 9 winners at Ascot were drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls.

    Price
    9 of 10 winners went off 7/1 or shorter & came from first 4 in the betting
    Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with all but one of the last 10 winners going off at single figure odds, however just one favourite has won the race in last 10 years.
    Favourites (1-3-11) have gained just 1 win and 3 places since 2002, giving a level stakes profit of 7.63.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    · Aged 4 or 5
    · Won over 1M to 1M 1F
    · Has won a group 1
    · Had 1 or 2 previous runs in 2012
    · Has run in the past 40 days
    · Ran in the Lockinge or Prix D’Isphahan last time out
    · First 3 in Prix de la Foret, St James’s Palace and/or Sussex Stakes in 2011
    · Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor, Richard Hannon or Aidan O’Brien
    · Drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls
    · Priced less than 7/1

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (7th June 2012),  DelTrotter (18th June 2012)  


  2. #2
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: ROYAL ASCOT - 2012 - 19TH -- 23RD JUNE DAY 1 [ TRENDS ]

    ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES TRENDS 2012


    The St James’s Palace Stakes is one of three group 1 races taking place on day 1 of Royal Ascot, which kicks off on Tuesday 19th June. Run over a mile for 3yos only, it brings together horses that have been running in the different 2000 Guineas races around Europe. Last year this race was won by the mighty Frankel.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    Race for 3yos

    Breeding
    8 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner
    8 of 10 winners were sired by horse that had won all his races over a mile or shorter (1 exception sired by Giants Causeway, who won this in 2000, and other was by Galileo)
    10 of 10 winners were born before 26th April

    Recent/Past Form
    7 of 10 winners won last time out (3 others beaten in French or Irish 2000 Guineas)
    7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a group 1)
    10 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2
    9 of 10 winners ran in last 30 days
    9 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo (exception was 2nd)
    9 of 10 winners won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (exception didn't run in a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo)

    2000 Guineas Form
    Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Power): 10715111 (5-0-8)
    English 2000 Guineas winner (Camelot): 145171 (3-0-6)
    Highest placed finisher from English 2000 Guineas: 1145151271 (5-1-10)
    French 2000 Guineas winner: 25135 (1-2-5)
    Highest placed finisher from French 2000 Guineas: 2521435927 (1-4-10)
    8 of 10 winners ran in English 2000 Guineas, finishing 12341531
    7 of 10 winners ran in Irish 2000 Guineas last time out, finishing 1021111
    2 of 10 winners ran in French 2000 Guineas, finishing 14
    9 of 10 winners had finished in first two in Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (exception was 4th in French 2000)

    Other Races
    Dewhurst Stakes winner (Parish Hall): 171561 (3-0-6)
    Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 2811 (2-1-4)
    Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère winner (Dabirsim): 14347 (1-1-5)
    National Stakes winner (Power): 1 (1-0-1)
    Royal Lodge winner (Daddy Longlegs): 1 (1-0-1)
    Richmond Stakes winner (Harbour Watch): 2 (0-1-1)
    Blenheim Stakes winner (Born To Sea): 62 (0-1-2)
    Prix Djebel winner (French Fifteen): 27 (0-1-2)
    Prix de Fontainebleau winner (Dragon Pulse): 52 (0-1-2)
    Futurity Stakes winner (Dragon Pulse): 03 (0-1-2)
    Free Handicap winner (Telwaar): 05 (0-0-2)
    Prix Morny winner (Dabirsim): 45 (0-0-2)
    Loughbrown Stakes winner (Requisition): 089 (0-0-3)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 1411
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Greenham, finishing 221
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Railway Stakes, finishing 131
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 611
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 233
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 21

    Trainers
    British trained runners: 5-9-53
    Irish trained runners: 5-8-31
    French trained runners: 0-2-7
    German trained runners: 0-1-1
    Other: 0-0-2
    Aidan O’Brien (4-8-25) has won 4 of the last 10 runnings of this race (including 3 of the last 5). His first string has a record of 4-4-10.
    Richard Hannon (1-1-6) and John Oxx (1-0-1) are the only other 2 trainers with an entry this season to have won the race in the past decade.
    Nicolas Clement (0-1-1), John Gosden (0-1-3), Brian Meehan (0-1-3) and Michael Stoute (0-1-3) have all had one placed finisher since 2002.

    Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
    Horses drawn 1 to 3: 3-3-27
    Horses drawn 4 to 6: 5-4-27
    Horses drawn 7 or higher: 2-11-32
    No strong trends on the draw.

    Price
    10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below
    This has not been a race for upsets in the past 10 years with the winner coming from the first 4 in the betting in each of last 10 years and no winner going off bigger than 8/1.
    Favourites (7-1-11) have won 7 of the last 10, including the last 4, giving a level stakes profit of 4.13.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    · Sired by a group 1 winner who’d never won over further than 1M
    · Won first time out & won a group race as a 2yo
    · First 3 in the Morny, Coventry, Dewhurst and/or Railway as 2yo
    · Ran in the past 30 days
    · Won last time out
    · Group 1 winner
    · Finished in the first 2 in Ir/Fr/Eng 2000 Guineas
    · Ran in Irish 2000 Guineas last time out
    · Trained by Aidan O’Brien
    · Priced 8/1 or below (favourite does very well)

  3. #3
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: ROYAL ASCOT - 2012 - 19TH -- 23RD JUNE DAY 1 [ TRENDS ]

    KING'S STAND STAKES TRENDS 2012


    The King’s Stand Stakes is the second race of day 1 of the Royal Ascot meeting. Run over 5 furlongs, it was promoted to a group 1 class in 2008. In the past 10 years the race has been dominated by overseas runners with 6 of the last 9 winners being trained outside of Britain and Ireland.


    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    3yo: 1-5-31
    4yo: 2-6-45
    5yo: 3-3-36
    6yo: 2-3-32
    7yo+: 2-3-33
    Horses aged 3 or 4 have a combined record of 3-11-76
    Horses aged 5 or older have a record of 7-9-101
    Nothing major to be gleaned from the age stats. The two 3yo winners since 2000 had both won or placed in a group race as 2yos.

    Gender
    Fillies & mares (2-5-31) have done alright in this, winning 2 of 10 and filling almost a quarter of the places from approximately 17.5% of total runners.

    Recent/Past Form
    8 of 10 winners (last 7) finished in first 2 last time out (2 exceptions finished 4th in group 2 and 6th in group 1)
    7 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 116+ last time out
    8 of 10 winners had won a group race (1 exception was a listed winner and other had twice been placed in a group 2)
    5 of 10 winners had won a group 1 sprint (2 others finished in first 6 in previous Abbey and other 3 had not run in a group 1 sprint prior to this)
    8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that year
    8 of 10 winners had won a race that year
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 6F (exception placed on only run over 6F)
    9 of 10 winners had won over 5F (exception runner-up in a 5F group 2)
    3 of 4 British-trained winners had won at Ascot (other was placed in a group 2 and Wokingham here)

    Other Races
    Previous season's winner (Prohibit): 4748 (0-0-4)
    Meydan Classifieds Trophy winner (Monsieur Joe): 1 (1-0-1)
    Prix De Saint-Georges winner (Beyond Desire): 01 (1-0-2)
    Coral Charge Sprint Stakes winner (Night Carnation): 100 (1-0-3)
    Previous season's Cornwallis Stakes winner (Ponty Acclaim): 150 (1-0-3)
    Previous season's King George Stakes winner (Masamah): 1006 (1-0-4)
    Temple Stakes winner (Bated Breath): 300368 (0-2-6)
    Middle Park Stakes winner (Crusade): 3 (0-1-1)
    Flying Five Stakes winner (Amore Propre): 2070 (0-1-4)
    Previous season's Nunthorpe winner (Margot Did): 90538 (0-1-5)
    Previous season's Abbaye winner (Tangerine Trees): 0670 (0-0-4)
    Prix du Gros Chene winner (Wizz Kid): 870
    Highest placed finisher from Prix du Gros Chene to run in this: 50087101 (2-0-8)
    4 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in Newmarket H’cap last time, finishing 6111
    4 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in Lightning Stakes, finishing 1111
    3 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in the Oakleigh Plate, finishing 335
    2 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in the Age Classic, finishing 17
    2 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in Salinger Stakes, finishing 43
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Du Gros-Chene last time, finishing 422
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Saint-Georges, finishing 214
    3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in previous Abbaye, finishing 306
    2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in Temple Stakes, finishing 23
    2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in previous season's Wokingham, finishing 30
    2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in Palace House Stakes, finishing 19
    2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in World Trophy, finishing 53

    Trainers
    British trained runners: 4-14-139
    Australian trained: 4-3-14
    French trained runners: 1-0-6
    Spanish trained: 1-0-1
    Hong Kong trained: 0-2-4
    Irish trained runners: 0-1-6
    South African trained: 0-0-2
    American trained: 0-0-3
    Other 0-0-2
    Record of horses trained in Britain & Ireland: 4-15-145
    Record of horses trained outside Britain & Ireland: 6-5-32
    Australian based trainers (4-3-14) have the best record of the foreign trainers winning 4 of the last 9, their one runner last year was 2nd.
    Robert Cowell (1-0-1) trained Prohibit to win this last year and he is only trainer with an entrant that has won this since 2002.
    Jeremy Noseda (0-2-3) and Henry Candy (0-2-4) have both saddled a couple of placed finishers in past 10 years.

    Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
    Horses drawn 1 to 8: 2-4-72
    Horses drawn 9 to 15: 7-9-58
    Horses drawn 16 or higher: 0-5-31
    Horses drawn between stalls 10 and 15 have won 7 of last 9 runnings of this.

    Price
    7 of last 8 winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter
    There have been a few upsets in this race in the past decade with 3 of 10 winners going between 16/1 and 25/1 though in the past 8 years, 7 of 8 winners came from first 5 in the betting
    Favourites (2-4-11) have won just 2 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    · Run 2 to 4 times in 2012 (winning at least once)
    · Finished in first 2 last time (posting RPR of 116+)
    · Previously won over 6F
    · Won a group race (preferably a group 1)
    · Finished in first 4 in Prix de Saint-Georges
    · Ran in Prix du Gros-Chene, Temple Stakes or Newmarket H’cap last time
    · Trained outside of GB & Ire, especially Australian based
    · Course winner (if trained in GB & Ire)
    · Drawn in stalls 10 to 15
    · Priced 8/1 or shorter

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