ROYAL ASCOT - 2012 - 19TH -- 23RD JUNE DAY 2 [ TRENDS ]

[ganjaman2]

PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES TRENDS 2012



The solitary Group 1 race on Day 2 of the Royal Ascot Festival is the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, run over a mile and a quarter for 4yos and upwards. Some of the best European middle distance horses of recent times have won this have won this including Fantastic Light, Azamour, Rakti and Ouija Board.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 6-12-50
5yo: 4-4-34
6yo+: 0-1-8
10 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 although they have accounted for 84 of the 92 runners.
All four 5yo winners ran in previous year’s race, finishing 4273.
Muhtarram in 1996 has been the only horses aged over 5 to win this race in past 30 years, and he had won the race the previous year.

Gender
Fillies & mares (1-2-6) have gained 1 win and 2 places from their 6 runners in this race in the past 10 years.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 118+ on previous start
10 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 over 1M1F to 1M 4F last time
9 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (exception had won group 2 & was 2nd in group 1 on last start)
9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that year
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+
4 of 10 winners made their seasonal debut at the Dubai Carnival
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) had run in a Longchamp group 1 that year

Other Races (previous season)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (So You Think): 712 (1-1-3)
Prix du Jockey Club winner (Reliable Man): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix Niel winner (Reliable Man): 10 (1-0-2)
Champion Stakes winner (Cirrus Des Aigles): 4145 (1-0-4)
Irish Derby winner (Treasure Beach): 2 (0-1-1)
Arlington Million winner (Treausre Beach): 47 (0-0-2)
4 of 4 winners aged 5 ran in previous season's Prince Of Wales, finishing 4273
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's International Stakes, finishing 214
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's St James Palace Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 24
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's English 2000 Guineas, finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Champion Stakes, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's French Derby, finishing 31

Other Races (that season)
Prix Ganay winner (Cirrus Des Aigles): 62114 (2-1-5)
Tattersalls Gold Cup winner (So You Think): 2312 (1-2-4)
Dubai Sheema Classic winner (Cirrus Des Aigles): 41 (1-0-2)
Mooresbridge Stakes winner (Windsor Palace): 02 (0-1-2)
Dubai World Cup winner (Monterosso): 92 (0-1-2)
Gordon Richards Stakes winner (Colombian): 452 (0-1-3)
Brigadier Gerrard Stakes winner (Carlton House): 95 (0-0-2)
Prix d'Harcourt winner (Giofra): 3774 (0-0-4)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Ispahan last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Sheema Classic, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup, finishing 53
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Ganay, finishing 11

Trainers
British trained runners: 5-10-65
French trained runners: 3-2-12
Irish trained runners: 2-4-10
Other: 0-0-5
Irish and French trained runners have a combined record of 5-6-22 (won 5 of last 7), which compares well to British based runners’ record of 5-10-65.
Aidan O’Brien (1-3-9) has trained 1 winner & 3 placed finishers from 9 runners since 2002.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-9) trained the first 3 winners since the turn of the century but has not won it since 2002.
Ed Dunlop (1-0-2) and Mahmood Al Zarooni (1-0-3) have trained the last 2 British-based winners.
John Gosden (0-3-6), Henry Cecil (0-2-4) and Michael Stoute (0-2-7) have each saddled multiple placed horses.

Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below & came from first 4 in the betting
Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with only 4 horses priced above 8/1 making the places in the past 10 years.
Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of the last 7 and show a level stakes profit of 0.75 over the past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 (or a 5yo that ran in the race last year)
· Run 1 to 3 times in 2012
· Finished in first 3 in group 1 over 1M 1F+ last time
· Posted an RPR of 118+ last time out
· Won over 1M 2F or further
· Has won a group 1
· Ran in a group 1 at Longchamp or Meydan in 2012
· First 3 in the Tattersalls Gold Cup or Prix D’Ispahan last time
· From the first 4 in the betting
· Trained in France or Ireland

[ganjaman2]

ROYAL HUNT CUP TRENDS 2012



The Royal Hunt Cup is the highlight of day 2 of Royal Ascot. It’s a handicap run over a mile for 3yos and upwards and the field often consists of over 30 runners so it’s no mean feat finding the winner, though there are some strong trends to guide you in your search.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 6-16-135
5yo: 3-7-63
6yo: 1-4-43
7yo+: 0-3-41
9 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5, they represented approximately 70.2% of total runners.
Horses aged 6 or above have a very poor record in this race (1-7-84)

Weight
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-3-29
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 5-5-66
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 5-12-112
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 0-9-75
10 of 10 winners carried between 8-8 and 9-5
Horses carrying a penalty: 62031004040250082 (1-6-18)
Top Weight: 0000030978 (0-1-10)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or more: 4-8-79
Horses rated 90 to 99: 6-17-155
Horses rated 89 or less: 0-5-48
9 of 10 winners were officially rated between 91 and 102

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners ran in last 45 days
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 in one of last two starts
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 on at least one start that season
4 of 10 winners won last time out
10 of 10 winners had posted career high RPR in 1 of last 3 starts
8 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or higher (2 exceptions placed at class 2)
8 of 10 winners had won or been placed in a class 2 or better race (1 exception had yet to race above class 3)
10 of 10 winners had won over a mile
7 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won 3 or fewer handicaps

Other Races
Arkle Finance Handicap winner (Boogie Shoes): 052 (0-1-3)
Lincoln winner (Brae Hill): 0 (0-0-1)
Emirates Equestrian Federation Handicap winner (Glor Na Mara): 00 (0-0-2)
Previous season's Cambridgeshire winner (Prince of Johanne): 00 (0-0-2)
Spring Cup winner (Captain Bertie): 070 (0-0-3)
Spring Mile winner (Norse Blues): 005 (0-0-3)
Betfair Supports Oaksey House H'cap winner (Highland Colori): 600 (0-0-3)
AgriArgo UK Tractor Challenge Handicap winner (Man Of Action): 000 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Spring Cup, finishing 362
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lincoln, finishing 620
2 of 10 winners ran in the Victoria Cup, finishing 19
2 0f 10 winners (last 2) ran in Whitsun Cup, finishing 43
2 of 10 (2 of last 5) ran in Deloitte Handicap at Ascot in July, finishing 54
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Buckingham Palace Stakes, finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Summer Double First Leg International, finishing 06

Trainers
James Fanshawe (2-3-5) has saddled 6 runners in this race since 2000, 2 have won and the other 4 have been placed.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-4) and John Gosden (1-1-5) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher since 2002.
Richard Hannon (1-0-6) and Jeremy Noseda (1-0-9) are the only trainers with entries this year to have won the race in the past 10 years.
Andrew Balding (0-2-10) has gained 2 places since 2002, including the runner-up in 2010. Brian Ellison’s (0-1-1) only runner in this was placed last year.
None of the 9 Irish trainer runners (0-0-9) have made the frame in this.

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
Horses drawn 1 to 10: 0-8-90
Horses drawn 11 to 19: 2-3-80
Horses drawn 20 or higher: 7-16-90
Higher draws have had much the better of it recently, with 7 of last 9 winners at Ascot coming from stall 20 or higher.

Price
No strong trends on the prices. Prior to 2009 there had been no winning favourite since 1996. There have been 3 winners priced between 25/1 & 28/1 in the past 10 years.
Favourites (1-2-11) have gained 1 win and 2 places from 11 runners (level stakes loss of 5.00 over the past 10 years).

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5
· Carrying 8-8 to 9-5
· Officially rated between 91 and 102
· Won over a mile
· Ran in last 45 days
· Finished in the first 2 at least once this season
· Posted highest RPR in last 3 starts
· Won at class 3 or higher
· Placed in class 2 handicap or better
· Run in 9 or fewer handicaps (having won no more than 3)
· Finished in first 6 in Spring Cup, Whitsun Cup and/or Lincoln in 2012
· Finished in first 5 in Deloitte H’cap and/or Buckingham Palace in 2011
· Trained in Britain (especially by James Fanshawe)
· Drawn 20 or higher