The Barclays Bank Pretty Polly Stakes is the big race on the Sunday card of the Curragh Derby meeting which takes place this weekend. The race is run over 1M 2F for fillies and mares and was promoted to group 1 status in 2004.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 3-6-42
4yo: 4-7-25
5yo: 3-2-9
6yo: 0-0-3
Horses aged 4 or 5 have the best record: 7-9-34.
All 3 winners aged 3 finished in the first 5 in either the English or Irish 1000 Guineas and then finished in first 6 in Epsom Oaks.
Since the race became a group 1 in 2004:
3yo: 2-4-31,
4yo+: 6-8-33
The two 3yo winners since 2004 were both trained by Aidan O’Brien: Peeping Fawn (3rd in Irish 1000 Guineas & 2nd in Epsom Oaks) and Misty For Me (1st in Irish 1000 Guineas & 5th in Epsom Oaks).

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (2 of 3 exceptions finished in first 5 in Epsom Oaks last time)
9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season
10 of 10 winners ran in the past 45 days
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M to 1M2F
9 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (exception was 2nd in group 1)
10 of 10 winners had contested a group 1 before
7 of 8 winners since 2004 (when race became group 1) had finished in first 3 in group 1
2 of 3 winners aged 3 had won a class 1 race as a 2yo (other was unraced at 2)

Other Races
Middleton Stakes winner (Izzi Top): 312 (1-2-3)
Dance Design Stakes winner (Bible Belt): 2216 (1-2-4)
Dahlia Stakes winner (Izzi Top): 16 (1-0-2)
Previous season's Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Maybe): 91 (1-0-2)
Hurry Harriet Stakes winner (Bible Belt): 51 (1-0-2)
Prix de Royallieu winner (Sea OF Heartbreak): 3 (0-1-1)
Noblesse Stakes winner (Sapphire): 26 (0-1-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De L'Opera last season, finishing 0132
3 of 10 winners ran in the Hopping Stakes, finishing 113
3 of 10 winners ran in the Blandford Stakes, finishing 311
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Yorkshire Oaks, finishing 82
2 of 10 winners ran in the Middleton Stakes last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup last time, finishing 23
3 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in Epsom Oaks last time, finishing 625
2 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in English 1000 Guineas, finishing 50
2 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in Irish 1000 Guineas, finishing 31

Trainers
Irish trained horses: 5-7-54
British trained horses: 5-6-22
French trained horses: 0-1-1
German trained horses: 0-1-2
British-trained runners (5-5-22) have won 5 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 26.2% of the total runners.
Jim Bolger (2-3-11) saddled Alexander Goldrun to win the race in back to back years in 2005 and 2006.
Aidan O’Brien (2-0-12) trained 2 o the last 5 winners, both his winners finished in first 5 in the Epsom Oaks on previous start.
Dermot Weld (1-1-7), William Haggas (1-0-1) and John Gosden (1-0-2) have each saddled the winner once in past 10 years.
Kevin Prendergast (0-2-8) last trained the winner of this in 2001 and has seen 2 of his last 8 runners make the frame. Henry Cecil (0-1-1) trained the runner-up last year.

Price
10 of 10 winners were sent off 9/2 or shorter
Not a race to be looking for an outsider with all the last 10 winners coming from the first 3 in the betting.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 1.38.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5
· Finished in the first 3 last time out, in past 45 days
· Run once or twice in 2011
· Won over 1M or 1M 2F
· Won a group race
· Finished in the first 3 in a group 1
· First 3 in Prix De L’Opera, Hopping or Blandford Stakes
· Aged 4+ that finished in first 3 in Middleton Stakes or Tatt’s Gold Cup or
· Aged 3 that finished in first 5 in a Guineas & Epsom Oaks
· Trained in Britain or by Jim Bolger or Aidan O’Brien
· Priced 9/2 or shorter