FALMOUTH STAKES TRENDS 2012

[ganjaman2]

The Etihad Airways Falmouth Stakes is the big race on the second day of Newmarket’s July meeting, on Friday 13th July. The race was upgraded to group 1 status in 2004 and is run over a mile for fillies of 3 and older. It is the first chance to see the female Classic generation take on their older rivals.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Wins-Places-Runners)
3yo: 5-6-43
4yo: 4-3-23
5yo: 1-3-10
6yo+: 0-4-7
3yos (5-6-43) have won 5 of last 10 from approximately 51.8% of total runners.
4yo+ (5-10-40) have won 5 of last 10 from approximately 48.2% of total runners.

Recent Form
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 106+ in one or both of last 2 starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days
8 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile (2 exceptions finished in first 5 in 1000 Guineas here)
10 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race
4 of 8 winners had won a group 1 since 2004, when this race became a group 1 (3 of 4 exceptions finished in first 6 in group 1 Coronation Stakes last time out)
Since race became a group 1 all 3yo winners had won a listed or group race as a 2yo

Other Races
Equestian Stakes winner (Emulous): 1 (1-0-1)
Matron Stakes winner (Emulous): 617 (1-0-3)
Coronation Stakes winner (Fallen For You): 225 (0-2-3)
Irish 1000 Guineas winner (Samitar): 2 (0-1-1)
Jersey Stakes winner (Ihvana): 3 (0-1-1)
Princess Elizabeth Stakes winner (Cinical): 37969 (0-1-5)
Windsor Forest Stakes winner (Joviality): 636434 (0-1-6)
Chartwell Fillies Stakes winner (Chachamaidee): 56 (0-0-2)
Fred Darling Stakes winner (Moonstone Magic): 55 (0-0-2)
3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in English 1000 Guineas, finishing 356
3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in Coronation Stakes, finishing 564
3 of 5 winners aged 4+ finished in first 3 at Royal Ascot
2 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in previous season's Prix Du Moulin, finishing 41
7 of 10 winners ran at Royal meeting on their last start (3 Coronation Stakes, 1 Sandringham, Royal Hunt Cup, Windsor Forest & Queen Anne)

Trainers
British-trained: 9-12-65
French trained: 1-1-6
German trained: 0-1-2
S African trained: 0-1-2
Irish trained: 0-1-7
New Zealand trained: 0-0-1
John Dunlop (1-1-2) & Mick Channon (1-1-6) have each saddled 1 winner & 1 place since 2002.
Henry Cecil (1-0-1) trained Timepiece to win the race last year.
John Gosden (0-2-7) has seen 2 of his 7 runners make the frame.

Price
No major trend on prices. 7 of 10 winners went off shorter than 7/1 though 3 of last 6 winners have gone off 50/1, 10/1 and 16/1 last year.
Favourites (4-3-11) have a fair record in this race, winning 4 of the last 10 renewals. They show a level stakes profit of 0.50 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4+ or a 3yo that won a class 1 race as a 2yo
· Run 1 to 4 times in 2012
· Posted an RPR of 106+ in 1 or both of last 2 starts
· Ran in a group 1 last time in past 60 days
· Has won over a mile
· Won a group or listed race
· Finished in first 5 in a group 1
· 3yo that finished in first 6 in 1000 Guineas & Coronation Stakes
· 4yo+ that finished in first 3 at Royal Ascot last time
· Trained by John Dunlop, Mick Channon or Henry Cecil