The Princess Of Wales Goldsmiths Stakes is the highlight of the first day of Newmarket’s July meeting, on Thursday 12th July. A group 2 run over a mile and a half for 3yos and older, it is a race Michael Stoute has done extremely well in recently, winning 4 of last 7.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 1-2-9
4yo: 4-5-34
5yo: 2-5-16
6yo+: 3-2-14
Horses aged 5 or older (5-7-30) have done slightly better proportional to their total runners over their younger rivals (5-7-43).
3 of 5 winners aged 5+ had finished in first 3 in a previous running of this race.
The only 3yo winner in past 10 years came in a sub-par renewal with just 4 runners (the two 3yo winners in past 15 years were both trained by Mark Johnston).

Penalties
Horses carry a 3lb penalty for group 2 win & 5lb penalty for group 1 win after 1st November.
Record of horses carrying a 5lb penalty: 42021 (1-2-5)
Record of horses carrying a 3lb penalty: 364 (0-0-3)

Recent Form
8 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners ran in a group race last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts (exceptions posted a career high RPR on last start)
9 of 10 winners had previously won over a 1M 4F+
9 of 10 winners had won group race (exception was twice placed in group company)
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Newmarket (2 others were placed here & other had not run here before)
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a group 1 (2 of 3 others yet to run in a group 1)

Other Races
Highest placed finisher in last year's race: 1122 (2-2-4)
Previous season's Chester Vase winner (Treasure Beach): 11 (2-0-2)
St Leger winner (Masked Marvel): 401 (1-0-3)
Cumberland Lodge Stakes winner (Quest For Peace): 37 (0-1-2)
John Porter Stakes winner (Harris Tweed): 26 (0-1-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Jockey Club Stakes, finishing 2224
4 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke Stakes last time, finishing 3374
3 of 10 winners ran in the Huxley Stakes, finishing 116
3 of 10 winners ran in the Brigadier Gerrard, finishing 150
3 of 4 winners aged 4 ran in previous year’s Epsom Derby or St Leger (exception was placed in both Craven & Dante but injury meant he missed rest of 3yo season)

Racing Tactics
7 of 10 winners were held up
3 of 10 winners led from early on (all 3 did so in fields of 6 or less runners)

Trainers
Michael Stoute (4-1-8) has trained 4 of the last 7 winners.
John Gosden (1-3-6) trained the previous season’s Leger winner, Lucarno, to win it in 2008. He has last year’s Leger winner, Masked Marvel, entered this year.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-3-9) has not won with any of his 9 runners, though 3 have been placed.

Price
No strong trends on prices, though it's been 10 years since a favourite won this.
Favourites (1-5-10) have a poor record in this race with just 1 winner in the past 10 years. They show a level stakes loss of 6.50 since 2002.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 that ran in 2011 Leger and/or Epsom Derby or
· Aged 5+ that had finished in first 3 in a previous renewal of this
· Run 1 to 3 times this season
· Ran in a group race in past 50 days
· Posted an RPR of 110 on 1 or both of last 2 starts
· Won over 1M 4F+
· Previously won a group race
· Finished in first 5 in a group 1
· Previously won or placed at Newmarket
· Finished in first 4 in the Hardwicke last time out
· Ran in Jockey Club, Huxley and/or Brigadier Gerard in 2012
· Trained by Michael Stoute or John Gosden