JULY CUP TRENDS 2012

[ganjaman2]

The July Cup is one of the sprinting highlights of the British flat season and it takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 14th July. A group 1, run over 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and older. Many of the horses that contested the two group 1 sprints at Royal Ascot will do battle again in this.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 3-4-41
4yo: 3-6-44
5yo: 3-6-34
6yo: 1-1-18
7yo+: 0-3-21
Horses aged 3 to 5 have won 9 of last 10, though they have represented 75.3% of the total runners in the past 10 years.
5 of 7 horses aged 3 to make the frame had won a Newmarket group 1 as 2yos
Horses older than 5 have a poor combined record of 1-4-39.
All 5 horses aged 6+ to make the frame ran in Golden Jubilee and/or King’s Stand at Royal Ascot that year and 4 of 5 had previously in first 2 in a group 1.

Gender
Fillies & mares (2-3-14) have done well in this race recently. They have won 2 of the last 10 runnings from under 9% of the total runners and over a third of their representatives have made the frame.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in last 3 starts
6 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (all 3 exception were unplaced in a Royal Ascot group 1 last time out)
10 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days
9 of 10 winners had previously won 6F to 7F (exception was Fleeting Spirit in '09 whose 2 previous runs at 6F had been 2nd’s in group 1 & group 2, both by less than a length)
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (1 exception was 2nd in a group 2 & other was listed winner having first try in a group race)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a group 1 (2 of 4 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1, other 2 exceptions had finished 5th in group 1)
9 of 10 winners ran at Royal meeting on their last start (3 Kings Stand, 4 Golden Jubilee, 1 St James's Palace, 1 Queen Anne)

Other Races
Horses placed in last year's July Cup: 05965 (0-0-5)
Highest placed finisher in Golden Jubilee: 7200165010 (2-1-10)
Highest placed finisher in Kings Stand: 1240750020 (1-2-10)
Palace House Stakes winner (Mayson): 712 (1-1-3)
Cathedreal Stakes winner (Libranno): 001 (1-0-3)
Cammidge Trophy winner (The Cheka): 1900 (1-0-4)
Temple Stakes winner (Bated Breath): 34 (0-1-2)
Wentworth Stakes winner (Sirius Prospect): 3090 (0-1-4)
Abernant Stakes winner (Mayson): 0796026 (0-1-7)
Lennox Stakes winner (Strong Suit): 04 (0-0-2)
Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 4080 (0-0-4)
Steward's Cup winner (Hoof It): 00970 (0-0-5)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 23302
4 of 10 winners ran in the Golden Jubilee, finishing 5161
3 of 10 winners ran in the Abernant Stakes, finishing 222
2 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 71
2 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 08
2 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York, finishing 85
2 of 3 winners aged 3 won the Middle Parks Stakes at 2

Trainers
British-trained: 8-16-121
Irish-trained: 1-1-11
French-trained: 1-0-8
Australian-trained: 0-2-10
S African-trained: 0-1-2
Other: 0-0-6
Aidan O’Brien (1-1-11) and James Fanshawe (1-0-5) are the only 2 trainers with entries to have won the race in past 10 years.
Roger Charlton (0-2-4) has saddled the runner-up twice since 2002 from 4 runners.
Paul Messara (0-1-1) saddled a mare, Alverta, to finish 3rd at 66/1 in 2010.
Australian-based trainers (0-2-10) have had plenty of success in the Royal Ascot sprints in the past 10 years; however their 10 runners in this race since 2002 have produced 0 winners and just 2 placed finishers despite the fact they have saddled the favourite in 5 of the 7 years they have had a runner.

Draw (stats based on new stall ordering)
Horses drawn in bottom 5 stalls: 6-7-50
Horses drawn in the middle: 3-8-58
Horses drawn in top 5 stalls: 1-5-50
There has been a definite bias to be drawn low with the last 6 winners coming from stall 7 or lower.

Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting
Not a particularly strong trends race as far as prices go with 5 of the last 10 winners going off at double-figure odds.
Favourites (2-2-11) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 3.50.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 3 to 5
· Mares do well
· Ran in last 30 days (ideally at Royal Ascot)
· Finished in first 3 last time (or unplaced in a Royal Ascot group 1)
· Finished in first 6 in Golden Jubilee
· Finished in first 3 in the Abernant Stakes and/or King’s Stand
· Won a group race
· Finished in the first 2 in a group 1
· Previously won over 6F or 7F
· Drawn low (stalls 1 to 7 favoured)
· Trained in Europe (ideally in Britain)

[ganjaman2]

my thoughts on this race


3:20 Newmarket – Darley July Cup (Gr1)


Three-year-olds were the dominant force in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s but although their record hasn’t been quite as strong in recent seasons, Dream Ahead’s victory last year re-confirms that they are a force to be reckoned with. The Irish-raiders Reply and Fire Lily are the only two representatives from the ‘Classic’ generation on Saturady so it will be interesting to see if they can live up to expectations.


Four-year-olds have also won their fair share down the years, including two of the last three renewals thanks to Fleeting Spirit and Starspangledbanner and so Krypton Factor, Libranno, Mayson, Sirius Prospect, Sepoy and Strong Suit also warrant careful consideration.
Five-year-olds didn’t have the greatest of records in the Darley July Cup, winning it only three times between 1968 and 1999, but since then they have chalked up another four victories courtesy of Agnes World, Continent, Frizzante and Marchand D’or. The well-fancied Bated Breath and Society Rock represent that age group on Saturday.


On a negative front all runners aged six or above really ought to be opposed as aside from the 2006 Les Arcs it is over 60 years since one of the older generations graced the Winners’ Enclosure – not great reading if Genki, Ortensia, Hawkeyethenoo, Dandy Boy or The Cheka were your main fancy.


The Darley July Cup’s place in the racing calendar means that it is the natural progression for those horses which contested the big sprints at Royal Ascot. Overall, 10 of the last 11 winners had previously run at the Royal Meeting, the only exception being the unexposed Sakhee’s Secret.


Despite the fact that the King’s Stand Stakes is run over a furlong shorter than Saturday’s trip, it is a race that has provided five recent Darley July Cup winners although it isn’t the winner that we should be concentrating on – Pivotal, Bolshoi, Mitcham, Cassandra Go, Choisir, Takeover Target and Scenic Blast all came up short when attempting to land the big race double. It is the placed horses which have supplied four of those five winners, Les Arcs who was 11th the only one to let the side down. This trend does prove a very strong pointer to Bated Breath who finished runner-up in this year’s renewal and possibly Ortensia who was 9th.


Renamed the Diamond Jubilee Stakes in 2012, having been know as the Golden Jubilee Stakes and the Cork & Orrery Stakes prior to that, the 6f Group 1 has also supplied it’s fair share of Darley July Cup winners. Starspangledbanner, Aidan O’Brien’s Aussie import, joined Les Arcs by completing the big-race double but those two would appear to be the exemption rather than the norm as the previous six Diamond Jubilee winners to have lined up here were all beaten. Black Caviar was the eventful winner of this year’s renewal but the race is represented by Society Rock (5th), Krypton Factor (6th), Sirius Prospect (7th), Genki (11th) and The Cheka (12th).


The victories of Pastoral Pursuits and Sakhee’s Secret give Hughie Morrison a two from two record in the Darley July Cup but sadly he is without a runner this afternoon as is Sir Michael Stoute who has won the race three times courtesy of Marwell, Green Desert and Ajdal. Aidan O’Brien is therefore the leading trainer with a runner this year so it will be very interesting to see how his Irish 2000 Guineas third, Reply performs as he drops down in trip. Richard Hannon won the Darley July Cup in 1992 with Mr Brooks but he has been out of luck since then. However, he runs Strong Suit and Libranno to try and chalk up that illusive second winner. James Fanshawe won this race in 2004 with Frizzante and he will be hopeful of a big run from Society Rock after he finished only two lengths behind Black Caviar at Royal Ascot.
Dream Ahead joined quite a unique club when winning the Darley July Cup last year as he became only the 6th winner in the past 24 years that had previously won at Group 1 level. Therefore, whilst it would be foolish to discount the previous Group 1 winners such as Krypton Factor, Sepoy, Society Rock and Ortensia on this trend alone, we shouldn’t be put off an up and coming sprinter who is, as yet, unproven at this level.


Horses coming into the race on the back of rock-solid recent efforts have tended to hold the upper hand over the past decade. Three had been last time out winners; one runner-up and two had finished third. Continent and Marchand D’Or had both run sound races in defeat in the Golden Jubilee. It is also harsh to criticise Pastoral Pursuits or Dream Ahead as both had run admirably in defeat over a mile in the Queen Anne and St James’s Palace Stakes respectively.


Compton Place provided the last real shock in the July Cup when winning odds at 50/1 in 1997. But overall it has usually paid to side with the more fancied runners as eight of the last ten winners had come from the first five in the betting which is supported by an average winning starting price of a shade over 9/1. At the time of writing Bated Breath heads the betting closely followed by Society Rock, Ortensia, Strong Suit, Sepoy and Dandy Boy.


Shortlist


Sepoy


Bated Breath


Society Rock


Strong Suit


Conclusion


Bated Breath would seem to tick most of the right boxes and couldn’t be arriving here in better form having been narrowly beaten in the King’s Stand Stakes. However, before reaching for your cheque book, it does need pointing out that all of his best form has come on a much faster surface than he is likely to encounter this afternoon. He certainly has the class to win but does he have the ground? The soft conditions are less of a concern for Society Rock who won the 2011 Diamond Jubilee Stakes under similar conditions and ran another encouraging race in this year’s renewal. Strong Suit trailed in Frankel’s wake at Royal Ascot and it is interesting that Richard Hannon has decided to drop him down from a mile to 6f on Saturday. On a sound surface he would have to be given a chance.


But at a bigger price SEPOY earns top-spot on the shortlist. He was one of the best sprinters in Australia last season winning nine of his ten starts, which included four Group 1s. Just as important is the fact that the majority of those nine victories came on good to soft or soft ground so he will not be inconvenienced in the slightest on Saturday. If he can recapture the very best of his Australian form he could prove decent value at 12/1. At even bigger prices Sirius Prospect and Reply could both have place claims on the very best of their form from last season.