The Gain Horse Feeds St Leger takes place at the Curragh this Saturday, 15th September. Unlike the other four Irish Classics this race is open to older horses and since 1990 only one horse aged 3 has won the race, that was the great Vinnie Roe, who went on to win the race 3 more times. Last year’s race ended in a dead-heat.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-4-13
4yo: 3-5-33
5yo: 4-3-19
6yo+: 4-5-19
Horses aged 3 or 4 have combined record: 3-9-46
Horses aged 5+ have combined record: 8-8-38
Horses aged 5+ have won 7 of last 10 runnings from just over 45% of the total runners.
The only 3yo winner in past 20 year was Vinnie Roe who won this 4 years running.

Gender
Fillies/mares (1-2-11) have gained 1 win and 2 places from 10 runners, which is about right considering they represented approximately 13.1% of the total runners.

Breeding
10 of 11 winners sired by a horse with a stamina index of 10.6F to 11.7F (exception was out of a mare that won a group 3 over 1M 5F)
Last 5 winners (1 of the 2 to dead heat in 2011) were by Sadler’s Wells or a son of Sadler’s Wells

Recent/Past Form
11 of 11 winners contested a group or listed race over 1M 4F+ last time
8 of 11 winners won last time out (3 exceptions were 2nd)
10 of 11 winners posted an RPR of 113+ last time out
10 of 11 winners had won a race that year (exceptions was 2nd on both starts that year)
7 of 11 winners had previously won at the Curragh (4 exceptions having first run here)
5 of 7 course winners had won over CD (2 others had finished 2nd over CD)
11 of 11 winners had won over 1M 5F or further
10 of 11 winners had won a group race (exception was a dual-listed winner who'd finished in first 3 in a group race)
8 of 11 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 1 (3 exceptions were having first run in a group 1)

Other Races
Highest finisher from previous year’s Irish Leger: 11133142 (4-3-8)
Highest placed finisher from Ballyroan Stakes: 111713442 (4-2-9)
Highest placed finisher from Saval Beg Stakes: 151315124 (4-2-9)
Vintage Crop Stakes winner (Fame And Glory): 1114 (3-0-4)
Curragh Cup winner (Hartani): 611463 (2-0-6)
Previous year's Doncaster Cup winner (Saddler's Rock): 1 (1-0-1)
Irish St Leger Trial winner (Ursa Major): 5146 (1-0-4)
Goodwood Cup winner (Saddler's Rock): 23 (0-2-2)
4 of 11 winners ran in the Ballyroan Stakes last time, finishing 1121
4 of 11 winners ran in the Saval Beg, finishing 1212
3 of 11 winners ran in the Ascot Gold Cup, finishing 216
3 of 11 winners ran in the Curragh Cup, finishing 112
3 of 11 winners ran in the Vintage Crop Stakes, finishing 111
2 of 11 winner ran in Yorkshire Cup, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Prix Royal Oak, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Melbourne Cup, finishing 47

Trainers
Irish-trained runners: 7-11-54
British-trained runners: 4-6-31
All 3 of Dermot Weld’s (3-2-8) wins in past 10 years came from Vinnie Roe winning this race between 2001 and 2004 and the 2 places were provided by Profound Beauty in 2 of the past 3 renewals.
Aidan O’Brien (2-6-17) & John Oxx (2-1-7) have each won 2 of last 6 renewals of this.
John Gosden (1-0-1) trained Duncan to dead heat for victory last year while Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-2) has gained a win and 3 places from 5 runners in since 1999.

Price
10 of 11 winners came from first 3 in the betting
The highest priced winner in last 10 years has been 10/1, not a race for big outsiders.
Favourites (5-3-12) have won 5 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.65.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or older
· Sired by a horse with a stamina index of 10.6F to 11.7F
· Ran in a group or listed race over 1M4F+ last time out
· Won last time out (no worse than 2nd), posting an RPR of 113+
· Course winner (or having first course start)
· Previously finished 1st or 2nd over CD
· Won over 1M 5F or further
· Has won a group race
· Previous finished in first 4 in a group 1
· Finished in first 2 in Prix Kergolay, Ballyroan or Ballycullen Stakes last time
· Finished in first 2 in Saval Beg, Vintage Crop and/or Curragh Cup in 2012
· Trained by Aidan O’Brien, John Oxx or in Great Britain
· First 3 in the betting