The Shadwell Fillies’ Mile, which used to take place at Ascot, will now be run at Newmarket on Friday 28th September. A group 1 run over a mile for 2yo fillies, it gives the winner automatic qualification to the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
Race for 2yos
Breeding
10 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 8.8f to 11.4f
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) were sired by Dynaformer
2 of 10 winners were by or out of a mare by Selkirk
2 of 10 winners were by or out of a mare by Danehill
Recent Form
10 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in June, July or August
8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions were 2nd in a group race)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 105+ last time (other won maiden on previous start)
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F (exceptions: 2nd in Group 1 over 7F and 2nd in group 2 over a mile)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 50 days
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times
8 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (1 exception had yet not run in pattern company & other was 2nd in group 2)
8 of 10 winners had never finished outside the first 3
6 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (2 exceptions were having first course start)
Other Races
May Hill Stakes winner (Certify): 8131111 (5-0-7)
Sweet Solera Stakes winner (Certify): 1233181 (3-2-7)
Prestige Stakes winner (Ollie Olga): 816243 (1-1-6)
Three Chimneys E B F Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Certify): 2 (0-1-1)
Betdaq Mobile Apps/British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Maiden winner (Roz): 656 (0-0-3)
6 of 10 winners ran in the May Hill last time, finishing 111211
3 of 10 winners ran in the Sweet Solera, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, finishing 72
2 of 10 winners ran in the Princess Margaret Stakes, finishing 33
Trainers
John Gosden (3-0-6) has saddled 7 runners since 2000, 4 have won (all priced 5/1 or less) and 3 unplaced (2 of those were priced 20/1).
Aidan O’Brien (1-3-7) trained the winner in 2007 and 4 of his 7 runners made the frame.
Mahmood Al Zarooni (1-0-1) trained the winner in 2011, 2 of 3 Godolphin runners since 2002 have been successful.
Clive Brittain (1-0-5) trained Hibaayeb to win in 2009.
Mick Channon (0-2-5) has seen his two representatives, priced under 20/1, both finish 2nd.
Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below
Since 2002 only one winner has been priced above 5/1, Hibaayeb at 8/1 in 2009.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 1.53.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Sired by a horse with a stamina index of 8.8f+
· Made debut in June, July or August
· Had at least 2 career starts
· Won last time out, posting highest RPR of 105+
· Ran in last 50 days
· Won over 7F or 1M
· Won a listed or group race
· Previously won at Newmarket (or having first course start)
· Won the May Hill and/or Sweet Solera Stakes
· Trained by John Gosden or a Godolphin runner
· Priced 8/1 or shorter
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