CHAMPION STAKES TRENDS 2012

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The Qipco Champion Stakes will be one of two group 1’s taking place at Ascot on Saturday 20th October for the second Champions’ Day. Previously run at Newmarket, the race was moved to Ascot last year and will see the final ever start of the mighty Frankel.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age
3yo: 4-5-43
4yo: 3-7-44
5yo+: 3-8-29
There’s not a huge amount to go on from the age.
2 of 3 winners aged 5+ finished in the first 2 in the previous year’s race.

Gender
Fillies and mares (1-4-14) have gained 1 win in the past 10 years from approximately 12.1% of the total. However it has been the older brigade that have done better with 4yo+ (1-3-10) accounting for the win and 3 of the 4 places and the 3yo fillies (0-1-4) gaining just 1 place from 4 runners.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had won a class 1 race that season
5 of 10 winners finished won last time (4 of 5 others were 2nd or 3rd in group 1 or 2)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (1 exception had never run over the trip)
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 a group 1
9 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners had last start at Goodwood, Leopardstown, Longchamp or Ascot
3 of 4 winners aged 3 had won a group or listed race as a 2yo

Other races
Previous season's winner (Cirrus Des Aigles): 10 (1-0-2)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (Snow Fairy): 3412 (1-2-4)
Eclipse winner (Nathaniel): 54612 (1-1-5)
Prix La Force winner (Saonois): 01 (1-0-2)
Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Izzi Top): 28 (0-1-2)
Bayerisches Zuchtrennen winner (Pastorius): 73 (0-1-2)
Prix Dollar winner (Cirrus Des Aigles): 04 (0-0-2)
Lockinge Stakes winner (Frankel): 68 (0-0-2)
Juddmonte International winner (Frankel): 80 (0-0-2)
3 of 3 British-trained 3yo winners ran in that year's 2000 Guineas, finishing 102
2 of 3 British-trained 3yo winners ran in Dewhurt as 2yos, finishing 31
2 of 3 British-trained 3yo winners ran in the Sussex Stakes, finishing 97
3 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 242
2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in the Eclipse, finishing 71
2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, finishing 12
2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Prix Ganay, finishing 43
2 of 10 winners ran in the Judmonte International, finishing 32
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 13

Trainers
Henry Cecil (2-1-7) has trained Twice Over to finish 2nd-1st-1st between 2008 & 2010.
Alain Royal-Dupre (1-1-3) saddled Pride to finish 2nd & 1st in consecutive years while another French trainer, C Barande-Barbe (1-0-1) trained Cirrus Des Aigles to win it last year.
Surprisingly Aidan O’Brien (0-2-10), Saeed Bin Suroor (0-2-12) and John Gosden (0-1-6) have all failed to ever train the winner of this race.
French–based trainers (3-4-16) have done well, gaining 3 wins and 4 places from approximately 14% of the total runners.

Price
Not a strong trends race on prices with winners varying from 6/5 to 25/1.
Favourites (1-4-10) have a poor record, winning just 1 of last 10 & show a level stakes loss of 7.80.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• 3yo who won a class 1 race as a 2yo & ran in 2000 Guineas
• 4 or 5yo that placed in this last year and/or 2012 Prince Of Wales
• Run at least 4 times in 2012 & won a class 1 race this year
• Won last time out (or 2nd/3rd in a group 1)
• Won over 1M 2F
• Previously finished in the first 2 in a group 1
• Trained in France or by Henry Cecil