The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (sponsored by Qipco) takes place at Ascot this Saturday 20th October as part of Champions’ Day. A group 1 run over a mile, it has been won by some top class animals in the past 10 years, including Frankel last year. The winner automatically qualifies for the Breeders Cup Mile but 2008 winners Raven’s Pass went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic and 2009 winner Rip Van Winkle was sent off favourite for the Classic. However with the proximity of the Breeders Cup to the new date for the race, it seems unlikely the winner will head Stateside.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 6-10-37
4yo: 0-2-19
5yo: 4-0-8
6yo+: 0-2-8
3 year olds have won last 4 & filled 16 of 24 places since 2002 from just over 50% of the total runners.
5 year olds also appear to do well having landed 4 of the last 10 from less than 14% of the runners. All four 5yo winners had previously won a group 1.

Gender
Fillies and mares (0-2-6) have managed 2 places from 6 runners in the period (8/1, 3/1, 5/2, 11/4, 14/1, 7/1). The last female to win this was Milligram in 1987.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (5 won, including last 4)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 117+ last time
10 of 10 winners had run 3 or more times that season
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1
10 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a group 1
10 of 10 winners had won a group race
10 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile
6 of 6 winners aged 3 won a group race as 2yo and contested a 2yo group 1

Other Races
Highest placed finisher from the Eclipse to run in this: 21311 (3-2-5)
St James’ Palace Stakes winner (Most Improved): 2221 (1-3-4)
Prix Jacques Le Marois winner Excelebration): 2452 (0-2-4)
Diomed Stakes winner (Side Glance): 7 (0-0-1)
Sandown Mile winner (Penitent): 5 (0-0-1)
Prix Rothschild winner (Elusive Kate): 7 (0-0-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 1862
4 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes, finishing 1211
4 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Celebration Mile last time, finishing 4311
4 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 1441
4 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Dewhurst as a 2yo, finishing 4371
3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in St James Palace Stakes, finishing 521
4 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran at Royal Ascot (2 Queen Anne, 2 Prince Of Wales)
2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in Irish Champion Stakes last time, finishing 25
2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in Prix du Moulin last time, finishing 12

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (2-4-16) has won 2 of the last 6 runnings and his record with his first string is 2-4-8.
Saeed Bin Suroor (2-4-16) has also won 2 of the last 10 runnings.
Henry Cecil (1-0-2) & John Gosden (1-0-2) have each trained the winner in past 4 years.
French-trained runners (0-1-8) have gained just 1 place from 8 runners in this (5 of the 8 went off 8/1 or shorter, including 2010 favourite, Makfi).

Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
The longest priced winner in past 10 years was Where Or When at 7/1 in 2002.
Favourites (4-4-10) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 1.90.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· 3yo that won a group race at 2 & finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas
· Or 5yo group 1 winner that finished in first 3 in Queen Anne or Prince of Wales
· Finished in the first 3 last time out (posting RPR of 117+)
· Won a group race
· Finished in first 4 in a group 1 (preferably won)
· Won over a mile
· Finished in first 4 in Celebration Mile, Eclipse, St James Palace and/or Sussex Stakes
· Older horse that ran in Prix du Moulin or Irish Champion Stakes last time
· From first 3 in the betting
· Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor or Aidan O’Brien