BREEDERS' CUP MILE TRENDS 2012
Goldikova just fell short of winning a fourth straight Breeder’s Cup Mile last year as she finished 3rd. This is a race that the French have done particularly well in, winning 5 of the last 10, with the other 5 going to the home team. Excelebration and Moonlight Cloud will spearhead the European challenge.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-5-29
4yo: 5-7-40
5yo: 1-4-36
6yo+: 2-4-21
No very strong stat on the ages of winners. 4yos have won 5 of the last 10 from approximately 31.7% of the total runners.
American-trained 3yos (0-1-8) have a poor record, gaining just 1 place from 8 runners.
Gender
Fillies/mares (4-3-13) have a fine record in this race, gaining 4 wins and 3 places from just 13 runners, though these stats are skewed by the fact that Goldikova has won 3 runnings. French trained females have a record of 4-3-8.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (4 won)
9 of 10 winners had last run 20 to 50 days ago
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times that year
9 of 10 winners had won at least twice that year
10 of 10 winners had won over a mile
10 of 10 winners had won a grade/group 1 or 2 (9 had done so that year)
10 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade/group 1 that year
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Maker's Mark Mile: 02111250 (3-2-8)
Prix Jacques Le Marois winner (Excelebration): 1001 (2-0-4)
Prix du Moulin winner (Moonlight Cloud): 201 (1-1-3)
Sunshine Million Turf Stakes winner (Little Mike): 17 (1-0-2)
Woodbine Mile winner (Wise Dan): 324252 (0-4-6)
Citation Handicap winner (Jeranimo): 32 (0-2-2)
Del Mar Mile winner (Obviously): 237 (0-2-3)
Fourstardave H'cap winner (Wise Dan): 02306 (0-2-5)
Sir Beaufort Stakes winner (Mr Commons): 36 (0-1-2)
Shoemaker's Mile winner (Jeranimo): 200 (0-1-3)
Arcadia Stakes winner (Mr Commons): 38690 (0-1-5)
Arroyo Seco Mile Stakes winner (Obviously): 768207 (0-1-6)
Shadwell Turf Mile winner (Wise Dan): P807809424 (0-1-10)
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic winner (Little Mike): 60 (0-0-2)
4 of 5 European-trained winners ran in Prix Jacques Le Marois, finishing 2112
2 of 5 North American-trained winners ran in Frank E Kilroe Mile, finishing 21
4 of 5 North American-trained winners ran in Maker's Mile, finishing 1114
2 of 5 North American-trained winners (last 2) ran in Woodbine Mile, finishing 27
2 of 5 North American-trained winners ran in Shoemakers BC Mile, finishing 26
Goldikova has won the Prix Rothschild en route to win this 3 years in a row
Trainers
North American-trained runners: 5-14-85
French-trained runners: 5-3-15
Irish-trained runners: 0-3-12 (all 3 places filled by O'Brien)
British-trained runners: 0-0-14
Freddie Head (3-1-4) has won the race 3 times with Goldikova.
Dale Romans (1-0-2) trained Colour Vision to cause a shock by winning this last year.
Aidan O’Brien (0-3-10) has yet to win this race but has had 43placed finishers from his 10 runners since 2002.
Charles Lopresti (0-1-1) trained Turallure to finish 2nd last year.
Price
No strong trend on the prices with winner’s SP ranging from 6/4 to 50/1.
Favourites (3-5-11) have won 3 of the last 10 (all Goldikova), giving a level stakes loss of 1.62.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
French fillies/mares do well
Had last run 20 to 50 days ago
Finished in the first 3 last time
Run 4 to 6 times this year, winning at least twice
Finished in first 3 on all starts in 2012
Won a grade/group 1 or 2 over a mile in 2012
Finished in first 4 in a grade/group 1 in 2012
Finished in first 2 in Prix Jacques Le Marois
First 3 in Frank E Kilroe, Maker’s Mile and/or Woodbine Mile
Trained in France
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