NOVEMBER HANDICAP TRENDS 2012

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The Betfred November Handicap takes place at Doncaster on Saturday, 10th November. It is a class 2 handicap open to 3yos and older, run over 1M 4F. Younger less exposed horses have been running well lately have been favoured in recent years.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 4-6-47
4yo: 5-13-78
5yo: 1-6-46
6yo+: 0-5-51
3 & 4 year olds have a combined record of 9-19-125
Horses aged 5 or older have a combined record of 1-11-97

Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-2-17
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-5-38
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 5-10-85
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 2-7-64
Horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 0-6-18
No very strong trends here but in recent years higher weights have done better with 8 of the last 9 winners, including last 6, carrying 8-10 or more.
Top Weight: 006600570900 (0-0-12)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or more: 0-3-21
Horses rated 89 to 99: 9-16-124
Horses rated 88 or less: 1-11-77
The last 9 winners of this race have been officially rated 89 to 99.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 4 to 7 times that year
9 of 10 winners had won or placed on one or both of last 2 starts
6 of 10 winners won 1 of last 3 starts (3 others finished 2nd or 3rd last time)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest flat RPR over 1M 2F+ 1 of last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 100+ in last 2 flat runs
10 of 10 winners had their last run between 14 and 60 days ago
9 of 10 winners (last 9) ran in a class 2 or 3 handicap last time out
6 of 10 winners had last run at Doncaster or Newmarket
8 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 handicaps (exception had won 4)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 3F+ (exception had been placed in 2M 1F novice hurdle & ran in the Triumph Hurdle that year)
8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 handicap
8 of 10 winners had contested a class 2 handicap but no higher (1 exception ran in a listed race and other ran in class 3 as highest level)

Other Races
Previous season's winner: 000 (0-0-3)
Record of 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th in previous year's race: 09101958 (2-0-8)
Caravan Chairman's Charity Cup winner (Bollin Greta): 1 (1-0-1)
Racing Post iPad App Handicap winner (Party Line): 04055 (0-1-5)
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Capital FM Handicap, finishing 54
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cambridgeshire, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in Dubai Duty Free Handicap, finishing 85
2 of 10 winners ran in Caravan Chairman's Charity Cup, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in Newmarket 32Red Handicap, finishing 91

Trainers
Ralph Beckett (1-0-2) won this in 2005 & is only trainer with an entrant to have won this in past 10 years.
Tony Newcombe (0-2-2) has seen his 2 runners both make the frame while Jim Goldie (0-2-3), Andrew Balding (0-2-3), Tim Easterby (0-2-5), Amanda Perrett (0-2-8) and Saeed Bin Suroor (0-2-9) have also saddled a couple of placed finishers since 2002.

Draw (excludes 2006, when race run at Windsor)
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 2-14-72
Horses drawn 9 to 16: 3-6-72
Horses drawn 17 or higher: 4-7-59
Higher drawn horses have held a slight advantage, 7 of the last 9 winners at Doncaster came from stall 11 or higher.
Horses drawn 10 or lower: 2-16-90
Horses drawn 11 or higher: 7-11-113

Racing Tactics
6 of 10 winners raced in touch or in midfield
3 of 10 winners were held up towards rear
1 of 10 winners made all

Price
No strong trends based on prices for this race.
This is a terrible race for favourites (0-1-11) with no winner in the last 16 years and only 1 of 11 making the frame since 2002.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Aged 3 or 4
Officially rated 89 to 99
Carrying 8-10+
Run 4 to 7 times in 2012
Finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 starts
Posted a career high RPR of 100+ in last 2 starts
Had latest start at Doncaster or Newmarket
Run in 12 or fewer handicaps (winning 1 to 3)
Previously won a class 2 or 3 handicap
Won over 1M 3F+
Finished in first 5 in Capital FM Handicap and/or Caravan Chairman's Charity Cup
Drawn 11 or higher
Hold-up horses preferred
Favourite has a poor record