HENNESSY GOLD CUP TRENDS 2012

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The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place at Newbury on Saturday 1st December. Run over 3M 2½F, it’s a grade 3 handicap chase which usually attracts a high class field of staying chasers. In 2002 Be My Royal won the race was disqualified weeks later due to a banned substance, from a trends point of view we will count Be My Royal as the winner in 2002.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-3
6yo: 3-9-26
7yo: 4-7-58
8yo: 2-4-34
9yo: 1-5-41
10yo: 0-3-16
11yo+: 0-0-5
6 and 7 year olds have the best record (combined 7-16-84) which compares well to all others ages (combined 3-12-99).
Diamond Edge in 1981 is only horse aged over 9 to have won this in the last 40 years while Denman (in 2009) is the only horse aged older than 8 to have won this in past 10 years, when winning it for second time.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 6-8-46
Horses carrying less than 11-0: 4-20-137
Higher weights hold the call in this with 5 of the last 7 winners all carrying 11-4 or more, in 2 other years there have only been 3 horses carrying 11-0+, 2 of those 3 were placed.
Top Weight: 0F91P1313P (3-2-10) has gained 3 wins and 2 places in last 6 years, though Denman has twice carried top weight to victory, which slightly skews the top weight statistic.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 164 to 182: 1-1-4
Horses rated 145 to 163: 6-15-86
Horses rated 126 to 144: 3-12-93
The last 7 winners were officially rated 145 or higher.
Horses rated 160+ have gained 2 wins & 1 place, however all were achieved by Denman.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ (exception was placed in previous year's Hennessy)
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start
6 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times over fences (3 of 4 exceptions had finished in first 6 in a previous renewal)
6 of 10 winners were second season chasers
7 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their chase starts
9 of 10 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had won a graded chase
5 of 10 winners (last 5) had won a chase over 2M4F or further at Newbury (other 5 were having first chase start here)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Carruthers): 3 (0-1-1)
RSA Chase winner (Bobs Worth): 5F11P (2-0-5)
Previous season's Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Bobs Worth): 61 (1-0-2)
Previous season's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase winner (Grands Crus): 618 (1-0-3)
Weatherite Novices' Chase winner (Duke Of Lucca): 1P0 (1-0-3)
John Smith's Handicap Chase winner (Saint Are): 6710 (1-0-4)
Irish National winner (Lion Na Bearnai): 3 (0-1-1)
Previous Worcester Nov Chase winner (Grands Crus): 350 (0-1-3)
Badger Ales Trophy Handicap Chase winner (The Package): 3P50 (0-1-4)
Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Lion Na Bearnai): PF (0-0-2)
Majordomo Hospitality Handicap Chase winner (Shakalakaboomboom): 0P (0-0-2)
Bet365 Gold Cup winner (Tidal Bay): 067 (0-0-3)
3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in RSA Chase last time, finishing 11P
2 of 3 fourth season chaser winners ran in RSA in their novice season, finishing 14
2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in previous Feltham Chase, finishing 25
Carruthers may try to repeat last year’s win, the only previous horse to win back to back runnings was Arkle.

Running Style
8 of 10 winners (last 7) raced with the leaders throughout

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-6-22) has won the race 3 times in past 10 years, including twice with Denman (07 & 09) and may have won it a fourth time but for Big Buck’s unseating in 2008.
Nicky Henderson (1-3-10) saddled the winner in 2005 and has had a placed finisher in 3 of the last 6 renewals.
David Pipe (1-2-8) trained a winner and 2 placed finishers in past 5 years.
Willie Mullins (1-1-5), Nick Williams (1-0-1) & Mark Bradstock have each trained the winner in past 10 years.
Philip Hobbs (0-3-13) last trained the winner in 2001 and trained the 2nd & 3rd last year.

Price
8 of last 9 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter
No massive trend on the prices though the first 4 in the betting have been responsible for 7 of the last 9 winners.
Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 0.00.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Aged 6 to 8
Carrying 11-0+
Officially rated 145 to 159
Run in 3 to 6 chases (winning at least half) or finished in first 6 in a previous Hennessy
Won a class 2 or better chase over 3M 1F+
Previously won a listed or graded chase
Finished in the first 3 last time out
Run in 5 or fewer handicap chases
Won a chase at Newbury over 2M 4F+ (or having first chase run here)
Tends to race prominently
Second season chaser that ran in last season’s RSA and/or Feltham Chase
Trained by P Nicholls, D Pipe, N Henderson or P Hobbs
Priced 10/1 or shorter