HATTON'S GRACE HURDLE TRENDS 2012

[ganjaman2]

The Bar One Racing Hatton’s Grace Hurdle is a grade 1 run over 2M 4F for 4yos and upwards. It is one of the three grade 1 events taking place at Fairyhouse on Sunday 2nd December. The race brings together top class 2 mile hurdlers as well as the best staying hurdlers and has been won by such top class horses as Brave Inca, Limestone Lad and Hurricane Fly in the past ten years.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-1
5yo: 0-1-11
6yo: 4-7-23
7yo: 3-0-14
8yo: 2-2-8
9yo: 0-1-5
10yo+: 1-2-6
Horses aged 5 or younger have gained just 1 place from 12 runners. The only horse younger than 6 to ever win the race was the mighty Istabraq as a 5yo in 1997.
Horses aged 6 to 8 have won the last 9 runnings. The only horse aged over 8 to win this since 2002 was Limestone Lad, when winning the race for a third time.

Gender
Mares (4-1-11) have gained 4 wins and 1 second from 10 runners, though those stats are slightly distorted by fact that Solerina accounted for 3 of the 4 successes.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won last completed start (2 exceptions finished 3rd in Morgiana)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 149+ last time
9 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days (exception was Hurricane Fly in 2010)
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 8 hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
9 of 10 winners had previously won at Fairyhouse (1 exception not run here before)
7 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 3 had finished in first 4 in a group or listed race on flat)

Punchestown Festival
9 of the last 10 winners ran in a grade 1 hurdle at that year’s Punchestown Festival.
Highest placed finisher from Punchestown Champion Hurdle: 313161 (3-0-6)
Highest placed finisher from Punchestown World Series Hurdle: 175144542 (2-0-9)
4 of 10 winners ran in the World Series Hurdle, finishing 1554
3 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 621
2 of 10 winners ran in Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Novice Hurdle, finishing 47

Other Races
Previous year's winner (Voler La Vedette): 111445 (3-0-6)
Tara Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 11159 (3-0-5)
WKD Hurdle winner (Monksland): 13 (1-0-2)
Red Mills Trial Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 5P1 (1-0-3)
Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 42842 (0-1-5)
Horse And Jockey Hotel Hurdle winner (So Young): 2 (0-1-1)
Galmoy Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 2 (0-0-1)
6 of 10 winners ran at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival (3 Festival Hurdle, 2 Future Champions Novice Hurdle & 1 Christmas Hurdle)
3 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 Champion Hurdle & 1 World Hurdle)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Lismullen Hurdle, finishing 1111F1
3 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana last time out, finishing 133
3 of 10 winners ran in the Synergy Solutions Novice Hurdle, finishing 123
3 of 10 winners won a 2M 4F grade 2 hurdle at Fairyhouse Grand National meeting
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 414
2 of 10 winners ran in Boyne Hurdle, finishing F1
2 of 10 winners ran in the Tipperary Hurdle finishing 1F

Trainers
Colm Murphy (2-3-6) gained 2 wins and 3 places from 6 runners since 2002.
Noel Meade (1-2-11) won the race in 2007 with Aitmatov while Willie Mullins (1-1-8) Eddie O’Grady (1-0-7) have also trained the winner in past 5 years.

Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
No winner has gone off higher than 11/2 in the last 10 years.
The favourite (5-2-12) has won 5 of last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 1.04.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Aged 6 to 8
Mares do well
Won last time out (posting RPR of 149+)
Ran in the last 35 days
Won over 2M 4F
Won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
Course winner
Bumper winner or finished in first 4 in class 1 flat race
Finished in the first 3 in Lismullen and/or Morgiana Hurdle
Ran in a grade 1 hurdle at the 2012 Punchestown Festival
Ran in a grade 1 or 2 at 2011 Leopardstown Christmas Festival
Trained by Colm Murphy
From the first 3 in the betting (shorter than 6/1)

[ganjaman2]

2:40 Fairyhouse – Bar One Racing Hatton’s Grace Hurdle




Willie Mullins has his string in top form at present and is fancied to land this prize for the second time in three years. So Young has a great strike-rate, winning 8 from 13 starts and should run a big race. He has also won first time out for the last two seasons and acts very well on testing ground, winning all six starts on ground officially reported as soft or worse. At Navan last season he gave weight and easily beat Trifolium, who went on to run so well at the Cheltenham Festival and the previous year he finished one place behind Rock On Ruby at the festival. He has been priced up as fourth favourite in a field of five, which is an insult to his chances. His main danger looks to be his stable-mate ZAIDPOUR who goes very well at this time of year, winning four of his five starts in November and December. He also loves testing ground, having won six times on ground reported as soft or worse. He also loves right-handed tracks, having a record of five wins from six starts and runs very well fresh, so everything is in place for a big run from him. Last season he beat Voler La Vedette a shade easily at Gowran Park on the same terms as he meets her today, yet he is a bigger price than her. He is a solid performer and it is worth remembering that he gave Hurricane Fly a race of it at Punchestown last season, so he looks a good bet. I also believe that it is worth having a reverse forecast on Zaidpour and So Young as that could pay a decent dividend.

[ganjaman2]

happy with zaidpour winning