PETERBOROUGH CHASE TRENDS 2012
The grade 2 Betfred Peterborough Chase is run over 2M 4˝F for 4yos and upwards, and will take place at Huntingdon on Thursday, 13th December. It has been a race dominated by Henrietta Knight in recent history as she has won 8 of the last 13 runnings. The race was abandoned in 2010 due to frost and rescheduled for Newbury but for the trends we will look at last 10 runnings at Huntingdon.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2001-2011):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 3-2-9
7yo: 2-2-13
8yo: 1-3-20
9yo: 3-2-11
10yo: 1-2-8
11yo+: 0-1-3
Age of the winners has been fairly well spread out but 6yos do have the best record, gaining 3 wins and 4 seconds from just 9 runners.
Weight
Horses carrying 11-10 to 11-11: 4-3-18
Horses carrying 11-3 to 11-7: 5-6-24
Horses carrying 11-0: 1-3-24
Horses carrying the maximum penalty have won 3 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 27.3% of the total runners.
Unpenalised runners (those carrying 11-0) have a very poor record gaining just 1 win and 3 places from more than a third of the total runners in the past 10 renewals.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) had run in the past 50 days
10 of 10 winners contested a grade 1 or 2 on last chase start
6 of 10 winners won on last completed start
4 of 10 winners had won at Huntingdon (5 others were having their first course start and other was 2nd on only run here)
8 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (1 exception was twice 2nd in grade 2 chases over 2M 4F & other exception was 2nd in a 2M 6F grade 1)
5 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
Other Races
Shloer Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 1 (1-0-1)
Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Menorah): 2 (0-1-1)
Ladbrokes.com Chase winner (Cristal Bonus): U2 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the King George the previous year, finishing 62F3
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Chase, finishing 422
2 of 10 winners ran in the Old Roan Chase last time, finishing 17
2 of last 4 winners ran in Ryanair Chase, finishing 58
7 of 10 winners had run in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival (3 exceptions all ran at Aintree Grand National meeting)
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (1-2-9) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 9 runners in the last 10 runnings here and is only trainer with an entrant to have won it since 2001.
Both Sue Smith (0-2-3) & Philip Hobbs (0-2-4) has saddled a couple of placed finishers.
Price
9 of 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting
Deep Purple won the race at 12/1 in 2009 and has been the only winner to come from outside the first 3 in the betting in the past 20 years.
Favourites (5-3-11) have won 5 of the last 10 runnings of this and show a level stakes loss of 1.12.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:
Aged 6 to 9 (particularly 6yos)
Carrying 11-3+
Course winner (or having first start here)
Ran in past 50 days
Had last chase start in a grade 1 or 2
Won over 2M 4F+ (or 2nd in a graded chase over 2M 4F+)
Won a grade 1 or 2 chase
Finished in first 4 in previous season’s King George and/or Ascot Chase
Ran at 2012 Cheltenham or Aintree Festivals
From the first 3 in the betting
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