KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2012 - 26th december

[ganjaman2]

Boxing Day or St Stephens Day, depending on which side of the Irish Sea you reside, is the busiest race day of the year, and the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton is the big race of the day. It has been won by many of the greatest steeplechasers in history and in the last decade champions such as Best Mate, Kicking King and Kauto Star have taken it. Last year Kauto Star gained his fifth success in the race, denying Long Run back to back successes but Long Run will be back to try to regain the Kempton showpiece against a strong bunch of second-season chasers.

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

Age (for age purposes we will assume the race run in 2010-11 season was run in 2010)
5yo: 1-0-2
6yo: 2-4-13
7yo: 3-5-21
8yo: 1-3-25
9yo: 1-2-18
10yo: 0-4-11
11yo+: 2-0-9
Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 6-9-36.
Compare that to horses aged 8 or older of 4-9-63.
Kauto Star has accounted for 3 of the 4 wins from horses aged 8+.

Breeding
French bred: 7-9-42
Irish bred: 3-6-41
GB bred: 0-3-13
German bred: 0-0-3
French-bred horses have won last 6 and have accounted for 16 of 28 places in last 10 runnings from approximately 42.4% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won on their last completed start (2 exceptions placed)
8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 170+ last time
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was 2nd in grade 1 on only run over 3M+)
8 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases
10 of 10 winners had won 2 or more grade 1 chases
7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd over this CD (2 others having first course start)

Other Races
Previous year's winner: 40111132 (4-2-8)
Highest placed finisher from previous King George: 4501411132 (4-2-10)
Record of horses that finished in first 3 in Cheltenham Gold Cup: 11311121 (6-1-8)
Betfair Chase winner: P11711 (4-0-6)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (Cue Card): 132 (1-2-3)
Denman Chase winner (Long Run): 3F12 (1-2-4)
Ascot Chase winner (Riverside Theatre): 21 (1-1-2)
Old Roan Chase winner (For Non Stop): 31 (1-1-2)
Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Kauto Stone): P13 (1-1-3)
Gowran Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 1 (1-0-1)
Feltham Novice Chase winner (Grands Crus): P61 (1-0-3)
Desert Orchid Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): 3 (0-1-1)
Scilly Isles Novice Chase winner (For Non Stop): 2 (0-1-1)
Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Al Ferof): 3 (0-1-1)
Champion Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): P3 (0-1-2)
Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Al Ferof): 426 (0-1-3)
Melling Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): 53PP (0-1-4)
Amlin1965 Chase winner (Captain Chris): 6P (0-0-2)
Racing Post Chase winner (Nacarat): 64 (0-0-2)
Pendil Novice Chase winner (Cristal Bonus): PP3 (0-0-3)
Ryanair Chase winner (Riverside Theatre): PP5P (0-0-4)
6 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 211113
6 of 10 winners (6 of last 7) ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 311U11
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 1P
10 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase at previous season's Cheltenham Festival
6 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 111213
2 of 2 second season chasers to win this had placed in Arkle or RSA

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (5-2-13) has won 5 of the last 6 renewals with Kauto Star.
Nicky Henderson (1-5-11) saddled the first 2 home in 2010 and had Long Run finish 2nd last year. He has seen over half his 11 representatives make the frame.
Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-5) & David Pipe (0-2-8) have both saddled the runner-up twice since 2002.

Price
The last 8 winners came from first 2 in the betting.
Edredon Bleu at 25/1 in 2003 has been only winner to be sent off greater than 9/2 since 2002.
7 of 10 favourites have won and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 5.56.


Conclusion:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Aged 6 or 7
Has run 1 to 3 times this season
Won last time out in the past 40 days (posting RPR of 170+)
Won over 3M+
Won 2 or more Grade 1 chases
Previously finished 1st or 2nd over this CD
Finished in first 3 in last season’s King George and/or Gold Cup
Finished in first 3 in the Betfair Chase
Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
From first 2 in the betting (priced no bigger than 8/1)