BOYLESPORTS.COM HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS

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The Boylesports.com (Handicap) Hurdle (formerly the Ladbrokes, Pierse and MCR Hurdle) takes place at Leopardstown on Saturday 26th January and is one of the major handicap hurdles on the Irish national hunt calendar. Run over 2 miles for 4yos and upwards rated 0-145, the last 2 winners ran in the Bar One Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-5-63
6yo: 3-13-68
7yo: 3-4-60
8yo: 2-4-42
9yo: 0-1-18
10yo+: 0-3-17
10 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 8, though they did make up almost 87% of total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 0-9-68
Horses carrying 10-11 or less: 10-21-200
Horses carrying 10-11 or less have won last 10 runnings and are especially favoured in softer ground.
Top Weight: 09402000083 (0-3-11)
Horses carrying a penalty (0-1-22) have a particularly bad record, gaining just one place from 22 representatives, 13 of which were sent off 12/1 or below (4 were favourite or co-favourite).

Official Ratings
Horses rated 127 or higher: 0-6-49
Horses rated 116 to 126: 8-15-139
Horses rated 115 or lower: 2-9-80
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 116 to 126 and they've filled 23 of 40 places.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won or placed last time (exception missed out on a place in a grade c h'cap hurdle by a short head on previous start)
9 of 10 winners had last start at Leopardstown, Punchestown or Fairyhouse
9 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 119+ last time out
7 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in the past 35 days
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 9 hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 hurdles (exception had yet to win over hurdles but had finished 2nd on last 3 starts)
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap hurdle (7 had yet to win one)
10 of 10 winners were second season hurdlers

Other Races
Fairyhouse Membership 2013 Handicap Hurdle winner (Speed Dial): 17 (1-0-2)
Follow Punchestown On Facebook Novice H'cap Hurdle winner (Grange): 071 (1-0-3)
Event Hire at Naas Racecourse Handicap Hurdle winner (Worldor): 1508 (1-0-4)
Previous season's Sean Graham Bookmakers M’dn Hurdle winner (Rocky Wednesday): 2 (0-1-1)
Holy Cross 5yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Inis Meain): 4 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Festival Hospitality 3yo M’dn Hurdle winner (Shadow Catcher): 27 (0-1-2)
Tipperary Water 4yo Hurdle winner (Discoteca): 04 (0-1-2)
Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner (Hisaabaat): F20 (0-1-3)
Bar One Racing H'cap Hurdle winner (King Of Queens): 505063 (0-1-6)
Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle winner (Cairdin): 0607070 (0-0-7)
4 of 10 winners were placed in a hurdles race at Leopardstown Christmas meeting
3 of 10 winners ran in a 2M H'cap Hurdle at Punchestown Winter Festival in November, finishing 231
3 of 10 winners ran in a hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, finishing 365
2 of 2 Jessica Harrington-trained winners ran in Paddy Power H'cap Hurdle at Leopardstown
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Bar One H'cap Hurdle, finishing 53

Trainers
Jessica Harrington (2-1-14) has trained 2 of the last 7 winners. Both winners had finished 2nd in the Paddy Power H'cap Hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival.
Willie Mullins (1-7-30) trained the first 2 in 2011 and trained 3 of the first 4 home in 2010. His 2 winners since 2002 ran in the Bar One Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December.
Tony Martin (1-2-9) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 9 runners since 2003.
Noel Meade (0-0-17), Charlie Swan (0-0-6), Eddie O’Grady (0-1-10) and Arthur Moore (0-1-10) have struggled in this race, producing 2 places from their collective 43 runners.

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 16/1
The one big shock in this race was Penny’s Bill at 50/1 in 2009, when a slightly fortuitous winner over the favourite Psycho in 2nd.
Favourites (2-1-14) have gained 2 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes loss of 0.50.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Aged 5 to 8
Won or placed last time (ideally at Leopardstown, Fairyhouse or Punchestown)
Posted an RPR of 119+ last time out
Run in past 35 days
Run no more than 4 times this season
Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles
Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning 0 or 1)
Second season hurdler
Carrying less than 10-12
Officially rated 116 to 126
Placed in a hurdles race at Leopardstown Christmas meeting
Finished in first 5 in the Bar One Handicap Hurdle
Finished in first 3 in a 2M H'cap Hurdle at Punchestown Winter Festival
Trained by Jessica Harrington, Tony Martin or Willie Mullins
Priced 16/1 or shorter