The BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle takes place at Leopardstown on Sunday 27th January. The race has been won by some of the best Irish hurdlers of recent times including Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace, Istabraq and Hurricane Fly, who will be looking to win this for third straight year. The key form race is the Leopardstown Festival Hurdle from which 5 of the last 10 winners have come.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-1
5yo: 0-1-9
6yo: 4-3-13
7yo: 1-4-14
8yo: 2-2-14
9yo: 1-1-5
10yo+: 2-2-10
6yos have the best record having won 5 of the last 11 renewals and were not represented in 4 of the other 6 runnings.
5 of 5 winners 8+ had previously won the Champion Hurdle or Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out
7 of 10 winners (last 4) posted an RPR of 160+ last time
8 of 10 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season (2 exceptions making seasonal debut)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (1 exception was 2nd in a grade 1 while other won the grade 3 Greatwood handicap hurdle and was having his first run at grade 1 level)
8 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown (1 exception was having his first course start while other was placed on both previous runs here)

Other Races
Previous year's winner (Hurricane Fly): 22221 (1-4-5)
Leopardstown Festival Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 211234114 (4-2-9)
Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 313111 (4-1-6)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 2185123 (2-2-7)
Previous season Royal Bond winner (): 128 (1-2-3)
Hatton's Grace winner (Zaidpour): 242P1 (1-2-5)
Red Mills Trial Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 6731 (1-1-4)
5 of 10 winners ran in Istabraq Festival Hurdle last time, finishing 11311
5 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 13111
5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at Cheltenham Festival (3 Champion Hdl, 1 Supreme, 1 Neptune)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 311
3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing F21
3 of 10 winners had run in the Hatton's Grace, finishing 321
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 271

Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-0-7) saddled Hurricane Fly to win this for past 2 years.
Charles Byrnes (1-1-2) trained Solwhit to win this in 2010 and finish 2nd in 2011.
British trained runners (0-0-2) have not won the race since Collier Bay in 1996, though there has only been 2 in past 10 years.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 10/3 or shorter
This is certainly not a race for longshots with 8/1 & 9/1 the two long priced winners since 2003.
Favourites (6-2-11) have won 6 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 2.15.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Aged 6 or a previous Champion or Supreme Novices Hurdle winner
Finished in the first 3 last time (posting RPR of 160+)
Run 2 or 3 times this season
Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
Previously won at Leopardstown
Finished in first 4 at 2012 Cheltenham Festival
Finished in first 3 in Morgiana and/or Hatton’s Grace Hurdle
Won the Istabraq Festival and/or Punchestown Champ Hurdle
Trained in Ireland
Priced 10/3 or shorter (favourite has a strong record)