saturday 26th januarys selections

[ganjaman2]

12:10 Cheltenham – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial

I was very impressed with IRISH SAINT when he won at Kempton over Christmas and I expect him to follow up here. He travelled strongly throughout that race and beat McVicar by 18 lengths, who had won his first two starts over hurdles. He handled the soft ground well that day, so I expect him to handle conditions at Cheltenham. It is also worth noting that he won a listed hurdle on soft ground in France on his hurdling debut and although he faces a potentially useful recruit from Nicky Henderson’s yard, he sets a high standard and should win.


1-15 Cheltenham, Murphy Group Chase

Although The Giant Bolster bucked the trend by winning the race as a seven year old last year the weight of recent history has favoured eight year olds with 6 winners in the last 12 renewals. That proves a pretty strong pointer to the chances of Quantitiveeasing, Bless The Wings and Shoegazer. When it comes to the older runners (aged 10 and above) usually they can be opposed with a fair degree of confidence. The Sawyer proved the only fly in the ointment in recent seasons although Bob Buckler’s back-to-back winner was something of a course specialist. Not great news for followers of Hell’s Bay and Tamarinbleu.

Following on nicely from the paragraph above, it will come as no surprise to learn that lightly raced, second season chasers have tended to dominate. In fact, 9 of the last 11 winners had previously raced between 8 and 13 times over fences giving them a perfect blend of experience and potential improvement. That implies that Bold Sir Brian, Nadiya De La Vega, Frontier Spirit and Chance du Roy are main protagonists.

Foly Pleasant, Lady Cricket and Wishfull Thinking all proved that it isn’t impossible to win the Murphy Group Chase under a big weight but the fact that 10 of the last 12 winners all carried less than 11st does indicate that it is usually the lightly weighted runners that come to the fore suggesting that Bless The Wings, Quantitiveeasing, Chance Du Roy, Bold Sir Brian and Poquelin have plenty on their plates tomorrow.

The fact that each of the last ten winners had achieved a top four finish on their most recent start confirms that this is a race that heavily favours those runners coming into the race in top class form so Poquelin, Chance Du Roy, Quantitiveeasing, Nadiya De La Vega and Hell’s Bay look one’s to avoid.

Runners from the Champion trainer Paul Nicholls must nearly always be respected but he hasn’t had an overly good time of it in this race – not good news for his pair of runners tomorrow. Nigel Twiston-Davies is another trainer with a less than ideal record so Frontier Spirit must be viewed with a degree of scepticism.

This race has proved a grave yard for those with unproven stamina – each of the last 10 winners of this race had rock solid form over at least two and a half miles. Hell’s Bay, Bless The Wings, Tartak, Poquelin and Quantitiveeasing have all triumphed over course and distance so may be worth a second look.

Given the competitive nature of this race, the market leaders haven’t fared too badly. In fact, the first three in the betting have won 7 of the last 11 renewals; three of which were the outright favourite. The biggest priced winner, Hunters Tweed returned a starting price of 14/1 in 2004 but even so the average winning SP is still a shade under 7/1, confirming that the form horses are usually the group to focus on. At the time of writing, no markets have been formed so it may be best to check the papers in the morning.

Shortlist

Shoegazer

(Bless the Wings)


Conclusion

SHOEGAZER hails from the in-form David Pipe yard and he looks to have the right credentials for this race. An 8yo second season chaser, who gets every yard of 2m4f (having won over 3 miles previously), has only made 8 starts over fences, lightly weighted, a runner-up on his latest start, it looks like the ideal profile. Form-wise he looks pretty strong too. He ran well after a short break at Chepstow on his last start and the ground that day was pretty heavy which won’t have helped him so he did really well to finish runner-up when giving shed-loads of weight away to the eventual winner Carrickboy.

Bless The Wings is the right age but does carry a little more weight than is ideal in this race however I can’t ignore him here. The Alan King gelding comes here bang in form and on the upgrade – his trainer looks to have found him a great chance of making it 3 wins on the bounce. His win at Newbury last time out highlighted the potential this horse has, he should cope well with both the conditions and the hustle and bustle of the race. If any runner in this contest can defy a weight of over 11st it I expect it to be this horse and a big run can be expected.



1:50 Cheltenham – Victor Chandler Chase

SPRINTER SACRE is one of many stars on show at Cheltenham this weekend and will obviously be very hard to beat. He was an awesome winner of the Arkle last season and looked even better when running away with the Tingle Creek in December, so should win well. It could be close for the forecast though as several will fancy their chances of finishing second to him. Sanctuaire was also a top novice last season and put in a good performance last time out and according to the betting is most likely to finish second, but I just wonder if the presence of Sprinter Sacre in the field will cause him to run below form, like he did at Sandown. He will not be able to dictate like he has done in the past and may sulk a bit. Somersby is a class horse, but is much better going right-handed and on his first run of the season, may not be 100% for this challenge. The one I like is William’s Wishes who is unbeaten over fences and has looked very good this season. Last time out he won really well at Sandown, despite stumbling at the last and the way he then pulled clear showed he had plenty left in the tank. He is currently 5/1 betting without the favourite and I am happy to take a chance on him.

2:25 Cheltenham – Argento Chase

In recent years this race has been won by experienced chasers that are thorough stayers, but are arguably past their peak. That trend is an obvious concern for fans of Grands Crus and although I am a fan of that horse, I fear this stamina test on soft ground may prove too much for him. Tidal Bay is the obvious other main contender and he won in a thrilling finish to the Lexus recently, which is the best recent piece of form on offer, but he had a set-back earlier this week and that was a hard race, so I am going to look further down the market and split my stake on two selection, that are both currently 12/1. WAYWARD PRINCE was a top novice chaser in 2010, winning once at Cheltenham as well as finishing a close third in the RSA Chase. Things did not go well for him last year and was moved to his owner’s yard for this season and he looks to be back to his best. On his seasonal debut he ran a solid race behind Silviniaco Conti and then last time out he won well on soft ground at Aintree, defeating Across The Bay, who had won his last two chases. He is a good stayer and being from an unfashionable yard, looks to be too big a price for this race. The other horse worthy of consideration is WEIRD AL. He was also a top class novice and has a good record at Cheltenham. Last season he was a good winner of the Charlie Hall and then followed it up by finishing just two lengths behind Long Run at Haydock. He is best fresh, so having had just one race this season is very much in his favour and that was a fair run, as he finished fourth in the Betfair Chase, just a short head behind The Giant Bolster and less than five lengths behind Long Run. It is also worth noting that he has won four of his six starts on soft ground, so don’t be surprised if he wins this.

2:45 Leopardstown – Leopardstown Handicap Chase

HIDDEN CYCLONE is a seriously good horse and can outclass his opposition in this. He has a very good strike-rate, winning 9 from 12 starts and he excels in heavy ground, which he faces here. Last time out he was fancied by many for the Lexus, but failed to stay the three miles, so this drop in trip is very much in his favour. On his previous start he made all and gave weight to win easily at Gowran Park and the runner-up went on to win next time out. If we exclude his runs in Grade one races, he has only been beaten once and that was when he was not 100% when finishing just over one length behind Sir Des Champs in a novice chase (receiving five pounds). That is obviously still good form and when you consider that Sir Des Champs is just 5/1 to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup and is rated in the high 160s, a mark of 153 looks fair for his handicap debut, especially as I strongly believe that Hidden Cyclone is a 160+ horse in the making.

4:10 Cheltenham – Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle

DILDAR was classy on the flat and finished fourth to Pour Moi in the Group Two race he won just before winning The Derby in 2011. Great things were expected of him as a juvenile hurdler, but he did not take to it as expected as although winning on his debut at Taunton, I felt his jumping was poor and that was again in display on his next start, when he unseated his jockey. Reports from the Nicholls team during the summer were positive about him and he was very much expected to show improved form this season. The early signs are good as on his seasonal debut, he ran a good race to finish second to Bourne at Kempton on heavy ground off a mark of 124. Although he has gone up to 130, he travelled and jumped well that day, so with that run behind him, I expect an improved run and on ground that suits, he should run a big race as I definitely believe that a mark of 130 under-estimates him.