ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2013

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The Betfair Ascot Chase takes place on a top quality card at Ascot on Saturday 16th February. A grade 1 chase, run over 2M 5½F it should prove an informative race with a view to the middle distance chase at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-1-6

7yo: 1-1-5

8yo: 5-4-20

9yo: 1-2-12

10yo: 1-2-16

11yo+: 2-1-10

8 year olds have done best, winning 5 of the last 10.

2 of 3 winners aged 10+ were previous winners & 2 of 3 placed finishers aged 10+ were placed in race before



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners ran 1 to 4 times since August (exception won previous year's race on last start)

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

10 of 10 winners had run at least 6 times over fences

9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (exceptions was 3rd in a grade 1)

9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a grade 1 (1 exception had won a grade 2 chase)

5 of 10 winners were previous course winners (5 exceptions having first course start)

9 of 10 winners were officially rated 150+ (exceptions rated 140)



Other Races

Melling Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): 21 (1-1-2)

Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Graduation Chase winner (Ghizao): 1 (1-0-1)

Haldon Gold Cup winner (Cue Card): F2 (0-1-2)

Previous season's Halloween Trophy winner (Cue Card): 4F (0-0-2)

Amlin Chase 1965 winner (Captain Chris): FP6 (0-0-3)

Highest placed finisher from King George: 4FP11121 (4-1-8)

Record of first 3 from King George: F111 (3-0-4)

4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) ran in the King George, finishing 6132

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Old Roan Chase, finishing 241

3 of 3 second season chasers to win it, ran in the Arkle, finishing 525

The record of horses who finished in the first 5 in the previous season's Arkle is very strong: 21214F12 (3-3-8)

7 of 10 winners finished in first 5 in the Arkle in their novice chase season



Trainers

Nicky Henderson (2-1-5) has saddled Riverside Theatre to win last 2 renewals.

Paul Nicholls (1-2-11) has saddled the winner and 2 seconds from 11 runners (8 of which were sent off 4/1 or shorter).

Jonjo O’Neill (0-1-2) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-3) have saddled the runner-up in past 10 years.

Philip Hobbs (0-0-3) has seen all 3 of his runners since 2003 finish unplaced.



Price

8 of 10 winners were priced under 6/1

6 of the last 7 favourites have won this and only one horse priced in double-figures has been successful in the past 10 years.

Favourites (7-0-10) have gained 7 wins in past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 7.26.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 7 to 9 (especially 8yos) or won this race before

· Run 1 to 4 times this season

· Previously run in 6 to 19 chases

· Won a grade 1 or 2 chase

· Won or placed in a grade 1 chase

· Won over 2M 4F+

· Officially rated 150+

· Course winner (or having first run here)

· Finished in the first 5 in the Arkle as a novice chaser

· Finished in first 4 in King George or Old Roan Chase

· Trained by Nicky Henderson

· Priced below 6/1 (favourite especially)