The William Hill Grimthorpe handicap chase takes place at Doncaster on Saturday 2nd March. It's a class 2 handicap chase run over 3M 2F, which is seen as a trial for the Aintree and Midlands Grand Nationals.
Below we take a look at the trends since 2002 (9 runnings):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-4
7yo: 0-2-9
8yo: 2-4-15
9yo: 3-4-25
10yo: 3-2-15
11yo+: 1-3-15
8 of 9 winners were aged 8 to 10 though they accounted for approximately 66.3% of total runners
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 2-8-36
Horses carrying 10-11 or lower: 7-8-47
Horses carrying 10-11 or less have won 7 of the last 9. The two exceptions carried 11-9 and 11-12 and had been placed in a listed handicap chase over 3M+ that season.
Top Weight: 3P1P68P463 (1-1-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 137 or higher: 2-5-31
Horses rated 136 or lower: 7-11-52
No very strong trends here but horses rated 136 or lower have won 7 of last 9 and filled 72% of the places from 62.7% of the total runners.
The 2 winners who were rated over 136 were Cloudy Lane, who had won the Kim Muir and Tommy Whittle Handicap chase, and Grey Abbey, who had won a grade 2 novice chase and had been placed in this race 2 years previous.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 9 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (5 won)
8 of 9 winners (last 8) had posted an RPR of 135+ on last completed chase start
9 of 9 winners ran over 2M 7F or further on last start
8 of 9 winners had run in past 45 days
9 of 9 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August
8 of 9 winners were 3rd or 4th season chasers (exception was a 2nd season chaser who won the Kim Muir as a novice)
8 of 9 winners had won a chase over 2M 7F or further at a left handed track (exception was a maiden chaser who had finished runner-up over this CD)
8 of 9 winners posted their highest RPR in a chase over 2M 4F+ at a left-handed track
8 of 9 winners (last 8) ran in 13 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 9 winners had won no more than 3 handicap chases
5 of 9 winners had won or placed at Doncaster (other 4 having first course start)
Other Races
Weatherite Novice Chase winner (Duke Of Lucca): 4 (0-0-1)
2 of 9 winners ran in previous season's Irish National, finishing PU
Trainers
Matt Sheppard (1-0-1), Philip Hobbs (1-0-1) & John Wade (1-0-1) have each trained the winner in past 4 years.
Paul Nicholls (0-2-6) and Sue Smith (0-2-7) has each saddled 2 places while David Pipe (0-1-2) & Keith Reveley (0-1-4) have each filled the runners-up spot in past 5 years.
Price
8 of 9 winners (last 8) were priced between 3/1 and 11/2
Clearly this is a race where you should be sticking with the market principals with Skillwise at 20/1 in 2002, the only winner since 2002 coming from outside the first 4 in the betting.
Favourites (1-2-11) have a poor record in this, gaining just 1 win and 2 places from 11 runners since 2002.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Aged 8 to 10
Carrying 10-11 or less (or placed in a class 1 chase this season)
Officially rated 136 or lower
Finished in first 4 over 2M 7F on last start in past 40 days
Posted an RPR of 135+ on last completed chase start
Third or fourth season chaser
Run in 13 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 3)
Won a 2M 7F+ chase at a left-handed track
Previously won or placed at Doncaster (or having first course start)
Trained by Matt Sheppard, Philip Hobbs or John Wade
Priced between 3/1 and 11/2
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