IMPERIAL CUP TRENDS 2013

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The Paddy Power Imperial Cup is a 2M ½F listed handicap hurdle run at Sandown on the Saturday (9th March) before Cheltenham. Previous sponsors of the race, Sunderlands, offered a £75K bonus to any winner who went on to win at the Festival the following week and it’s good to see that current sponsors, Paddy Power, have continued the offer, recently achieved by Gaspara in 2007.



Below we take a look at past 10 runnings to attempt to find some pointers:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 2-1-8

5yo: 3-6-39

6yo: 3-9-65

7yo: 1-9-56

8yo: 0-4-21

9yo: 1-1-15

10yo+: 0-0-5

Younger horses have fared better in recent years, especially 4yos who have gained 2 wins and a place from 8 runners (which improves to 2 wins and 1 place from 4 runners when only including 4yos priced less than 25/1)

Horses aged 4 to 6: 8-16-112

Horses aged 7 or older: 2-14-89

8 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 to 6

Since 2006, 5 of the 6 winners aged 4 or 5 came from the Pipe stable

Both winners aged 7+ were novice hurdlers who had been placed in group company on the flat.



Breeding

French bred: 5-6-55

Irish bred: 4-9-59

German bred: 1-3-21

British bred: 0-10-61

Other: 0-2-13

9 of 10 winners were French or Irish bred, and they only represented 54.5% of the total runners in the past 10 runnings.

All three 4yos to win or place were French bred.

8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-16-94

Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-14-115

Lower weights have held sway with the last 9 winners all carrying less than 11-0.

Top Weight: 67P080000F3 (0-1-11) has a poor record in this.



Official Ratings

Horses rated 131 or higher: 1-7-64

Horses rated 121 to 130: 6-18-110

Horses rated 120 or lower: 3-5-35

In past 6 years horses officially rated 122 to 130 have won 5 of 6 and filled 17 of 24 places.



Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start

6 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 starts (all 4 exceptions were placed on 1 of last 2 starts)

8 of 10 winners had their last run between 21 and 55 days ago

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out (2 exceptions did so on penultimate start)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 123+ in last 2 outings

9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 9 times over hurdles

10 of 10 winners had won no more than twice over hurdles in GB&IRE

8 of 10 winners had run in 2 or fewer handicap hurdles (2 exceptions had run in 5 & 7)

7 of 10 winners were novice hurdlers

10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 hurdles since August

0 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded hurdle

6 of 10 winners ran on the flat (4 of those were rated 90 or higher)

4 of 10 winners had previously run at Sandown (all had 1 start, 2 had won & other 2 were placed)

2 of 2 winners aged 4 had contested a graded hurdle that season



Other Races

Betfair. Don't Settle For Less Handicap Hurdle winner (Kuilsriver): 1 (1-0-1)

Bathwick Tyres Handicap Hurdle winner (Barizan): 3 (0-1-1)

William Hill - Download The App Handicap Hurdle winner (Whitby Jack): 400 (0-1-3)

3 of 10 winners won a Taunton Novice Hurdle that season

2 of 10 winners ran in Betfair. Don't Settle For Less H’cap Hurdle at Ascot, finishing 10

2 of 10 winners ran in Betfred 1350 Shops Nationwide Introductory Hurdle, finishing 31



Trainers

David Pipe (2-2-9) has carried on the great tradition his father Martin (2-2-14), he has trained the winner in '07 and '08 and his two runners in 2009 finished 2nd and 4th. His record with 4yos is 2 wins and 1 place from 3 runners.

Philip Hobbs (1-3-10) trained the first 2 home in 2010 and also the 3rd place in 2009 & 2011.

Charlie Longsdon (1-0-1) won it with Painball last year while Nicky Henderson (1-0-13) has also both trained the winner in past 4 years.

Gary Moore (0-3-13) & Paul Nicholls (0-2-11) have each saddled multiple placed finishers since 2003.

Irish trainers (1-2-11) have gained 1 win and 2 places from 11 runners in past 10 years.



Price

5 of 10 winners were sent off favourite

Favourites (5-2-11) have won 5 of last 10, showing a level stakes profit of 10.58.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 4 to 6 (especially 4 or 5yos from Pipe stable)

· French or Irish bred

· Carrying less than 11-0

· Officially rated 122 to 130

· Finished in first 3 on last start, 21 to 55 days ago

· Posted an RPR of 123+ on last 2 outings

· Run 1 to 5 times since August

· Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles (won no more than twice)

· 1st or 2nd season hurdler

· Run in no more than 2 handicap hurdles

· Won at no higher than class 2 over hurdles

· Previously won or placed at Sandown (or having first course start)

· NH bred or officially rated 90+ on the flat

· Trained by David Pipe, Phillip Hobbs or Gary Moore

· Sent off favourite