LINCOLN HANDICAP TRENDS 2013
LINCOLN HANDICAP TRENDS 2013
The William Hill Lincoln Handicap, which will be run at Doncaster on Saturday 23rd March, marks the beginning of the British flat turf season. It’s a race steeped in history and is always a lively betting contest, making up the first part of the Spring Double.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 6-8-65
5yo: 1-10-70
6yo: 3-7-51
7yo: 0-2-25
8yo+: 0-3-14
4yo have won 6 of the last 10 runnings
4 to 6 years old have won last 10 however they represented approximately 82.7% of total runners.
There has only been one winner aged above 6 in the past 20 years.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 9-1 or more: 4-12-69
Horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 6-12-101
Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 0-6-55
8 of 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-2 and all 10 winners carried at least 8-9.
Horses running with a penalty (1-4-14) have gained 1 win and 4 places from 15 runners.
Top weight: 0170027604 (1-2-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 95 or higher: 9-22-140
Horses rated 94 or lower: 1-8-85
9 of 10 winners (including the last 5) were officially rated 95 or higher.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last turf start (5 won)
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR on one of their last two starts in Britain
9 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 4 starts
10 of 10 winners previously gained 2 to 4 career wins
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps
9 of 10 winners won over 1M+ (exception was 2nd in previous year's Lincoln)
8 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season
8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 11K+
0 of 10 winners had previously won at the track
9 of 10 winners gained their highest grade win in class 2 or 3
1 of 10 winners won a class 1 race (listed)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Brae Hill): 090 (0-0-3)
Highest placed finisher from Betfred Bonus King H'cap: 1842032 (1-4-7)
Royal Hunt Cup winner (Prince Of Johanne): 3 (0-1-1)
Sport360.co.uk Handicap winenr (Anton Chigurh): 3 (0-1-1)
Betfred Seaton Delaval Handicap winner (Swiftly Done): 4 (0-1-1)
Victoria Cup winner (Global Village): 072 (0-1-3)
Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial (Strictly Silver): 300 (0-1-3)
Spring Cup winner (Captain Bertie): 050 (0-0-3)
Previous season's Spring Mile winner (Norse Blues): 0R05 (0-0-4)
2 of 10 winners ran in Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 80
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 70
2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Summer Double International Stakes, finishing 00
5 of 10 winners had their last turf run at Newmarket the previous October/November
Since 2000 the record of first 5 from Betfred "Bonus King" H'cap to run in this: 00101430154002032 (3-6-17). Bancnuanaheireann finished 4th in the 2012 running.
Trainers
William Haggas (2-1-4) has won the race twice in past 6 years & also saddled 3rd last year.
Richard Fahey (1-5-21) trained the winner last year and also saddled 5 more places since 2003.
John Quinn (1-1-7) trained Blythe Knight to win the race in 2006 and finish 2nd in 2008.
John Gosden (1-0-4) trained the winner in 2009.
David Barron (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 runners make the frame.
Trainers who have not had much luck in this are Kevin Ryan (0-0-10) and Richard Hannon (0-0-5) have failed to saddle a single placed finisher from 15 combined runners.
Draw (last 10 runnings at Doncaster 2001-2012)
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 4-15-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 4-8-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-7-84
No strong trends on the draw, though the Spring Mile which takes place earlier on the Lincoln card can often give pointers as where best to be drawn.
Price
No strong trends on prices, 6 of the last 10 runnings have gone to horses in the first 5 in the betting but last 2 winners have gone off 16/1 & 25/1.
Favourites (3-0-11) have won 3 of the last runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 4.33.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 to 6 (4yos especially)
· Carrying 8-9 to 9-2
· Officially rated 95 or higher
· Won one of last four races
· Finished in first 3 last time out
· Posted their highest RPR in last two runs
· Having first run of the season
· Won over 1M+ (or placed in this race last year)
· Gained 2 to 4 career wins
· Previously won 1 to 3 handicaps
· Previously won at class 2 or 3 level
· Won a race worth 11K+
· Finished in first 5 in Betfred "Bonus King" H'cap at Newmarket
· Trained by William Haggas or Richard Fahey
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