The Matalan Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle is the opening race of this year’s Aintree Grand National meeting on Thursday 4th April. The race is usually dominated by horses that ran in the Triumph Hurdle, though in recent years the Fred Winter has also been a good trial with the Fred Winter 3rd, Orsippus, producing a 40/1 shock in this in 2010 and 2011 Fred Winter runner-up, Kumbeshwar, almost turning over the Triumph Hurdle winner, Zarkandar.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

Race for 4yos



Gender

Fillies (0-0-5) have gained no wins and no places from 5 runners in past 10 years. All 3 winning fillies in the past 20 years had bypassed Cheltenham.



Breeding

Irish bred: 4-9-50

French bred: 3-5-28

USA bred: 2-0-7

British bred: 1-4-32

Other: 0-2-11

9 of 10 winners were Irish, French or American bred.

British bred horses finally won this last year, after a long drought, thought British breds represented the first 3 in the betting. They had previously had a very poor record in the race, failing to win any of the previous 10.

9 of 10 winners (last 9) were sired by a group winner on the flat

7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 3 in group 1 on flat



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days

8 of 10 winners (last 8) finished in the first 3 last time out

Since race became a grade 1, 7 of 8 winners posted an RPR of 141+ last time

8 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times over hurdles (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in a Cheltenham grade 1 last time)

8 of 10 winners had won at least twice over hurdles

8 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race 5+ lengths (1 exception was a maiden and other had won his 2 starts, both in graded company)

9 of 10 winners had previously contested a grade 1 (exception was 3rd in Fred Winter on previous start)

Since race became a grade 1, 7 of 8 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle

Since race became a grade 1, 6 of 8 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle

10 of 10 winners had run on the flat



Other Races

Highest placed finisher from Triumph Hurdle: 2211121212 (5-5-10)

Adonis Hurdle winner (Irish Saint): 321411 (3-2-6)

Finesse Juvenile Hurdle winner (Rolling Star): 71151 (3-0-5)

Finale Juvenile Novice Hurdle winner (Ruacana): 216 (1-1-3)

William Hill - No.1 Downloaded Betting App Juvenile H’dl winner (L'Unqiue): 83 (0-1-2)

William Hill - iPad App Now Available Juvenile Hurdle winner (Irish Saint): 43 (0-1-2)

Fred Winter H'cap Hurdle winner (Flaxen Flare): 503 (0-1-3)

Floor V Davis HL1979 Juvenile Hurdle winner (Leo Luna): PP (0-0-2)

8 of 10 winners ran in the Triumph Hurdle last time out, finishing 60211213 (1 exception 3rd in Fred Winter & other was 2nd in Supreme)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Finesse Juvenile hurdle, finishing 4111

3 of 10 winners ran in the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 211

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 111

2 of 10 winners ran in the Finale Juvenile hurdle, finishing F1

2 of 10 winners ran in the Berkshire Bookshop Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 1F



Trainers

Alan King’s (3-1-6) 4 runners in this since it became a grade 1 have finished 1st-1st-2nd-1st.

Paul Nicholls (2-3-13) has gained 2 wins and 3 places from 13 runners since 2003.

Nicky Henderson (1-2-6) trained Punjabi to finish 2nd in 2007, Binocular to win it in 2008 and was a bit unlucky to see Grandouet get brought down when going well in 2011.

Tim Vaughan (0-1-1) & Gordon Elliot (0-1-1) have seen their one runner get placed.

Irish trained horses (1-2-12) have gained 1 win and 2 places from approximately 9.4% of the total runners. 2 of 3 Irish-trained runners to make the frame had won a juvenile hurdle at Cheltenham at November or December meetings, other had won Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown.



Price

Since 2005 (when made a grade 1) 7 of 8 winners were sent off favourite

Favourites (7-2-10) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 10.54.


Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Irish, French or USA bred gelding

· Sired by a group winner on the flat (that won/placed in group 1)

· Raced on the flat (rated 80+)

· Run 4 to 8 times over hurdles (or unbeaten)

· Won at least twice over hurdles

· Finished in first 3 in Triumph Hurdle last time (posting RPR of 141+)

· Finished in first 3 in a grade 1

· Won a hurdles race by 5 or more lengths (or unbeaten over hurdles)

· First 3 in Finesse, Finale and/or Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle

· Won the Adonis Hurdle

· Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls

· Favourite has a very strong record