day 1 aintree festival thursday 4th april

**ganjaman2** · 3rd April 2013

2:00 � Matalan Anniversary 4-y.o Juvenile Hurdle

IRISH SAINT looked good when winning at Kempton at Christmas and then put in another good display when winning the Adonis Hurdle last time out, conceding weight to Vasco Du Ronceray. He did not go to Cheltenham for the Triumph Hurdle and that could be an advantage in this as the race was run on bad ground and may have taken the edge of many a horse. He has to turn the tables on Rolling Star who beat him a shade cozily at Cheltenham, but that race was on heavy ground and Rolling Star has to bounce back from a poor run at Cheltenham. The Nicholls team did not have a good Cheltenham, but have been in good form since (33% strike-rate) and I can see them getting off to the perfect start at Aintree.

2:30 � Betfred Bowl

SILVINIACCO CONTI was still going well when falling in the Gold Cup and is strongly fancied to win here. He is normally such a good jumper, so it was a shame he fell at Cheltenham, but he has looked a real class act this season and should be hard to beat given a clear round of jumping. He finished last season with a very impressive win at Aintree, defeating Champion Court by 13 lengths, so clearly handles Aintree well and on ground that will be very similar, he deserves to be a strong favourite. First time out this season he easily defeated Wayward Prince at Wetherby and then made all to beat Long Run at Haydock, who went on to win the King George. After a winter break he easily beat both The Giant Bolster and Menorah at Newbury and I can see no reason why any of those horses will turn the tables. The biggest dangers are from Ireland and both First Lieutenant and Quito De La Roque are respected, but the former just does not win as often as he should and Quito prefers soft ground, so it is Silviniacco Conti to win for me.

3:05 John Smith�s Aintree Hurdle

This race has a history of multiple winners and having won it for the last two years it is hard to look past OSCAR WHISKY. He is the best two and a half mile hurdler around and in seven starts at that distance he has won six and fallen when upsides the leader in the other. He was never going last time at Cheltenham and just never seems to run to form when tackling three miles, but this is his trip. He was pulled up when his chance had gone, so he did not have such a tough race as last year, but on the negative side, he has had less time to recover this year going into this race. He faces some tough opposition and it could be significant that Barry Geraghty has chosen Grandouet, but this horse sets a very high standard and Nicky Henderson reported that he worked very well at the weekend. Due to the fact that Barry Geraghty is not riding and he ran badly last time, he is available at 6/1 which is a real insult to his chances.

4:15 � matalan.co.uk Red Rum Handicap Chase

Novices have a good record in this and I like the look of one at the bottom of the weights and it is KIE. He has yet to finish out of the first two on four starts over fences and looked good when winning his debut at Musselbugh. He was not disgraced when finishing second to the useful Tetlami (rated 140) at Kempton, so a mark of 127 could be lenient. He handles good ground and likes to front run, which is often a good tactic at Aintree and he could prove hard to catch. A big danger could prove to be Toubab who ran a decent race at this track last year to finish second to Sprinter Sacre. There is clearly nothing of that quality in opposition today and a handicap mark of 145 gives him a serious chance. Last time out he made all to win at Doncaster off 140 and a rise of five pounds should not stop him running well again. Good ground is important to his chances, so assuming there has not been too much watering, he should run well.

4:50 � Betfred Manifesto Novices� Chase

CAPTAIN CONAN looked likely to win the Jewson at Cheltenham last month, but just failed to get up the hill. This flatter track should suit and he could prove hard to beat. Prior to Cheltenham he was unbeaten in three starts over fences and looked very good when winning at Cheltenham. Connections rate him very highly and if Barry Geraghty holds his challenge for a little longer I can certainly see him getting revenge on Changing Times, who finished ahead of him at Cheltenham. It is worth remembering that he ran really well at this meeting last year, finishing second to Darlan over hurdles, so the track should hold no fears to him and I expect him to win.

**chesser** · 4th April 2013

My selection:

Lucky 15 (EW)

1
2
3
4

Standard
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2:00 Aintree – Win
2:30 Aintree – Win
4:50 Aintree – Win
4:15 Aintree – Win

Irish Saint @ Guaranteed Price (7/2)
Silviniaco Conti @ Guaranteed Price (EVS)
Captain Conan @ Guaranteed Price (13/8)
Toubab @ Guaranteed Price (11/1)

**akimba** · 4th April 2013

Originally Posted by ganjaman2

4:15 – matalan.co.uk Red Rum Handicap Chase

Novices have a good record in this and I like the look of one at the bottom of the weights and it is KIE. He has yet to finish out of the first two on four starts over fences and looked good when winning his debut at Musselbugh. He was not disgraced when finishing second to the useful Tetlami (rated 140) at Kempton, so a mark of 127 could be lenient. He handles good ground and likes to front run, which is often a good tactic at Aintree and he could prove hard to catch. A big danger could prove to be Toubab who ran a decent race at this track last year to finish second to Sprinter Sacre. There is clearly nothing of that quality in opposition today and a handicap mark of 145 gives him a serious chance. Last time out he made all to win at Doncaster off 140 and a rise of five pounds should not stop him running well again. Good ground is important to his chances, so assuming there has not been too much watering, he should run well.

KIE is 20/1 at Ladbrokes?? worth a cheeky �10 then