The John Smith’s Mildmay Novice Chase is a grade 2 run over 3 miles 1 furlong and is the second race on Friday 5th April, the second day of Aintree’s Grand National meeting.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 2-1-7

6yo: 2-5-17

7yo: 4-9-38

8yo: 1-1-18

9yo: 0-2-11

10yo+: 1-1-4

Horses aged 5 to 7: 8-15-62

Horses aged 8+: 2-4-33

Aces Four who won it as an 8yo didn’t have his first run until age 5 while Like A Butterfly, who won it aged 11, didn’t have her first run until age 7.



Breeding

Irish Bred: 6-8-52

French Bred: 4-6-25

British Bred: 0-5-14

Other: 0-0-4

All 10 winners were Irish or French bred, though they represented around 81% of total runners.



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases

8 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases

8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 on all completed chase starts (2 exceptions finished out of first 4 once, in a novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 60 days

7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (3 exceptions won over 2M 4F)

10 of 10 winners had first run in a bumper, point to point or French hurdle

10 of 10 winners had contested a grade 1 chase or hurdle

5 of 10 winners (last 3) had finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase

Excluding chase starts at the Cheltenham Festival, the 10 winners ran in 37 chases. They completed on 33 of those 37 starts, finishing in the first 3 in 32 of 33.



Other races

Reynoldstown Novice Chase winner (Rocky Creek): 531F (1-1-4)

Betfred Mobile Lotto Novices' Chase winner (Rocky Creek): P3 (0-1-2)

Steel Plate And Sections Novices' Chase winner (Dynaste): P2 (0-1-2)

Shloer Novices' Chase winner (Super Duty): P4 (0-0-2)

Timeform Novice H'cap Chase winner (Vino Griego): 4F (0-0-2)

Feltham Novice Chase winner (Dynaste): 64 (0-0-2)

7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham Festival (last 2 winners bypass Cheltenham)

5 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 514P2

2 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in previous year's Sefton Novice or Aintree Hurdle

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Reynoldstown Novice Chase, finishing 14



Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-3-13) has trained 3 of last 7 winners, including last year’s Silviniaco Conti.

David Pipe (0-1-2) saw his last runner in this get placed at 16/1 in 2007.

Irish-trained runners (2-1-9) have gained 2 wins & 1 place from 9 runners (9.5 of total runners).



Price

10 of 10 winners were priced between 7/4 and 7/1

Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes return of 0.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 5 to 7

· Irish or French bred

· Run in 3 to 5 chases (winning at least 2)

· Finished in first 3 in all chases starts (excluding Cheltenham Festival)

· Won over 3M+ (or 2nd in a 3M grade 1 or 2 chase)

· Had contested a grade 1 chase or hurdle

· Finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase

· Had first run under rules in a bumper or hurdle

· Finished in first 5 in the RSA Chase

· Finished in first 4 in the 2012 Sefton Novice or Aintree Hurdle

· Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland

· Priced 7/4 to 7/1