day 3 aintree festival 6/4/2012

**ganjaman2** · 5th April 2013

1:45 John Smith�s Mersey Novices� Hurdle

This would not be the strongest trends race though it has been a terrific race for punters as 12 of the last 15 winners started favourite or second-favourite.

Of the last 16 Mersey Novices� Hurdle winners a total of 11 recorded a top-six finish at the Cheltenham Festival. The only qualifier this year being Utopie Des Bordes who finished fifth in the Albert Bartlett which suggests this is a weaker race than has been the case. Dodging Bullets is quite interesting moving up in trip from finishing ninth in the Supreme as Paul Nicholls has won this race twice with horses beaten in that contest namely Natal (4th) and Garde Champetre (5th) who improved for the longer distance. Six winners from the last 15 won the Mersey when stepping up to this trip for the first time and this is Dodging Bullets� first try at 2m4f as it is for Eduard, Morning Royalty and Vasco D�Ycy.

Having had 18 consecutive losers in the race, Nicky Henderson has won the last two runnings and he relies on Utopies Des Bordes but Paul Nicholls� record stands at three winners from seven runners which catches the eye even more and he relies on Dodging Bullets.

Short List

Utopie Des Bordes

Dodging Bullets

Conclusion

No surprise to you I�m sure having read the above that only UTOPIE DES BORDES and Dodging Bullets make the short list and both should start in the first four in the betting. Utopies Des Bordes surprisingly pulled too hard in the Albert Bartlett given how experienced she is which suggested they weren�t going fast enough for her at three-mile pace so she should enjoy this half mile shorter trip. She was also the only horse in that race to take the inside route on the chewed up ground from the County Hurdle on soft ground so I am inclined to put a line through that run. Being the only top-six Festival runner in this race and trained by a stable seeking a hat-trick of wins in this contest, she has to be the main trends pick. DODGING BULLETS didn�t fire at all in the Supreme but two of Nicholls� winners of theMersey were unplaced in that 2m event so I can see him being a big factor. Maybe having not run since Boxing Day did not help his cause at Cheltenham as he is the type to get lit up. Up And Go impressed at Ascot but he wouldn�t really be a trends horse, though, as highlighted at the top, this hasn�t been a notable race for trends.

2:15 John Smith�s Maghull Novices� Chase

The Arkle Trophy has to be the starting point as only one of the last 18 winners failed to contest the two-mile novice chase championship at the Cheltenham Festival if we ignore 2001 when it was abandoned due to Foot And Mouth. This year�s Arkle runners are Baily Green (2nd) and Overturn (4th). Seven winners of this race since 1997 finished second or third which is more of a pointer to Baily Green than Overturn but the latter does look tailor made for this course rather than Cheltenham.

The Grade 2 November Novices� Chase had provided two winners in five years around the turn of the century but then went quiet for eight years until Tataniano completed that particular double in 2010. This season�s running went the way of Captain Conan but Sire De Gurgy was a good second and represents that form today. He is also the only continentally-bred horse in the race and they have won 9 of the last 13 runnings.

The last 15 winners started in the first three in the betting so this is not a race to actively go in search of an upset. Hard to think that Alderwood, Overturn and Baily Green won�t occupy those positions. We have to go back to 10/1 winner, Ask Tom, in 1996 to locate the last Maghull winner not to be sent off in the first three in the betting.

As the Mildmay Chase course suits fluent, handy types with the class to hold a good pitch, I am not surprised that prominently-ridden horses have as strong a record and 13 of the last 14 winners of Maghull raced handily which has to be a big positive for Overturn.

The last Irish cheer was provided by Feroda way back in 1989 who also went on to win the Red Rum Handicap Chase two days later but Alderwood and Baily Green provide a strong challenge this year.

Short List

Overturn

Baily Green

Conclusion

Alderwood is clearly a spring horse and he won the Grand Annual with something to spare but the Irish have a moderate record in this race and it is very rare indeed that the winner did not contest the Arkle so he has to be left off a trends based short list. OVERTURN fluffed his lines in the Arkle but this is far more his course as it suits prominent racers so well and if he gets in the same rhythm as was the case at Sandown or Musselburgh, on drying ground I don�t think his supporters could wish for better conditions. It was tough choosing between Sire De Grugy and Baily Green for the second spot but I think it is more important a horse contested the Arkle than where they are trained and seven placed Arkle runners have won since 1999 so BAILY GREEN gets the second vote. I�m not sure it was a great Arkle but Mouse Morris� seven-year-old is so tough and could be under-rated.

2:50 John Smith�s Liverpool Hurdle

Not a race that has been going that long with just nine runnings but what trends there are have been very strong trends.

The big stats for the Liverpool Hurdle are that (1) all nine winners had won or finished second at this meeting before, (2) all nine winners also started in the first three in the betting and had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race and won over at least 2m6f and (3) eight of the nine winners finished in the first four in the World Hurdle. This season�s World Hurdle 1-2-3Solwhit, Celestial Halo and Smad Place take each other on again and they should occupy three of the first four positions in the market plus Oscara Dara (6th) is having another crack at them. Horses to win or place at this meeting before are Solwhit (won Aintree Hurdle), Celestial Halo (second in Anniversary Hurdle), American Spin (second in 3m handicap hurdle), Attaglance (won 2m4f handicap hurdle) and Grands Crus (second in this race two years ago).

The class element has been crucial with all nine winners having won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race and the only qualifiers on that score are Solwhit (won 7 Grade 1s), Celestial Halo, Grands Crus, Smad Place and Won In The Dark.

Big Buck�s put an end to 7-7 run of combined six and seven-year-olds in 2011 and again in 2012 proving himself to be a different class being sent off at odds-on for all four of his Liverpool Hurdle victories but, now he is unable to defend his title, it may be worth reverting back to looking at the younger horses. Solwhit and Celestial Halo are both nine-year-olds as is Won In The Dark. If Solwhit is successful, he would become the first Irish-trained winner of the race.

Short List

Smad Place

Grands Crus

Celestial Halo

Conclusion

No horse qualifies on all the strong trends but I make SMAD PLACE the most interesting contender of those that fail on one (not having finished in the first two at this meeting before � fell here last year) but he is a proven Grade 1 horse and won the Long Walk Hurdle like Big Buck�s has done for the last three years before winning here, he stays 3m very well, the yard have won the race recently and he was third in the World Hurdle, a race in which eight of the nine winners posted a top-four finish in. The King George third GRANDS CRUS does have history at this meeting as he was second to Big Buck�s here two years ago and returns to hurdling. He is also a proven Grade 1 horse that stays 3m and I can see him enjoying the return to timber as, to look at him close up, he looks like a hurdler not really having the scope to go right to the top over fences. Solwhit is a nine-year-old and Irish trained (no wins � mind you he became the first Irish-trained World Hurdle winner for 18 years) so I can�t really class him as a trends horses so CELESTIAL HALO gets the final berth. He too is a nine-year-old but has he has run well at this meeting before more than once, was second in the World Hurdle and his owner-trainer have won this race for the last four years with Big Buck�s.

3:25 John Smith�s Handicap Chase

Nine of the last 16 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival so that is the best place to start and features Planet Of Sound, Loch Ba and Tour Des Champs (all unplaced in the JLT), Johns Spirit (unplaced in the novice handicap chase) and Problema Tic (unplaced in the Kim Muir). Shame no declared horses ran in the Byrne Group Plate as that was an angle I liked moving up in trip that had supplied three recent winners though Cantlow was due to before being withdrawn down at the start.

Last year�s 1-2 had both won at the Aintree fixture 12 months earlier underlining the importance of previous form at this meeting in the past. Horses placed at this meeting before are Planet Of Sound (third in the Manifesto Chase), Cantlow (second in the Sefton Novices� Hurdle), Russian War (won handicap hurdle) and Battle Group (won here on Thursday meaning he has won twice and finished second at this meeting).

Fourteen of the last 16 winners were aged nine or younger and, in victory last year, Saint Are became the third winning novice since 1998. Novices this year are Cantlow, Tour Des Champs, Johns Spirit, Opening Batsman, Battle Group, Storm Survivor, Garynella and Brave Spartacus.

There is nobody better in the business when it comes to stayers than Jonjo O�Neill and he has prepared four winners of this staying handicap chase in the last 13 years. Those 13 runnings have seen just six representatives fromJackdawsCastleand he runs Johns Spirit and Storm Survivor. Philip Hobbs went close several times before hitting the target with From Dawn To Dusk and has had the fourth home in the two years since and runs Planet Of Sound. J P McManus has owned the winner three times in the past decade and his Cantlow will be a popular order having been forced out of the Plate with a slight bleed down at the start. Storm Survivor also represents the Champion Owner.

Short List

Cantlow

Johns Spirit

Storm Survivor

Planet Of Sound

Conclusion

CANTLOW was supposed to run in the Plate which is a good guide to this race but the vet pulled him down at the start and he has to be the main trends pick having placed at this meeting before, is a novice and his owner has won the race three times in the last decade. JOHNS SPIRIT represents Jonjo O�Neill who has a fantastic record in the race and is preferred to his stablemate and fellow novice Storm Survivor as he contested a race at the Cheltenham Festival. That said, being trained by O�Neill and being a novice means I also have plenty of time for STORM SURVIVOR and especially as he also wears the colours of J P McManus. PLANET OF SOUND is older than ideal but 11 but his yard won this with another 11-year-old in 2010 and he loves flat tracks and led the field a merry dance in the Grand National for 3m last year but failed to stay. Trained by Philip Hobbs who has a good record in this race, he also ran at the Cheltenham Festival but this course looks more to his liking.

John Smith�s Grand National (Grade 3) � Saturday 6th April

With all of the last ten winners of the Grand National aged nine or older, this is certainly not a race in which younger horses have done well. The last time there was a winner younger than this was back in 2002 when Bindaree landed the spoils for the Nigel Twiston-Davies team and before him you have to go back to another eight-year-old, Party Politics who won in 1992. In terms of this year�s field, Join Together, Harry The Viking, Soll, Viking Blond and Lost Glory make up a quintet of eight-year-olds, whereas Saint Are will be bidding to become the first seven-year-old to win the race since Bogskar triumphed in 1940. Although given the strength of the trend, I think it would be somewhat foolish to consider any of those mentioned above.

An equally strong trend is that a win over a distance of three miles or further is something that all of the last ten winners had on their CV. In fact this trend can be stretched back to 1970 and it is hardly surprising given the extreme stamina test the race provides. The three horses lining up for this year�s renewal looking to buck this trend are Tatenen who only has a win over 2m6f to his name, 2m4f winner Quiscover Fontaine and former Coral Cup winner Ninetieth Minute, but with history against them I am happy to rule them out at this stage. There may be some of you who might include both Seabass and Becauseicouldntsee as they have yet to win over three miles under rules, but both can boast winning form in point-to-points over the same distance and as a result I am happy to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Given the perceived effort that horses have to give in the Grand National, it might be sensible to support a horse returning from a long lay-off. However, the statistics would suggest that a run within the last 50 days is the optimum, accounting for nine of the last ten winners. The only exception during this period was last year�s winner Neptune Collonges who managed to win following an absence of 56 days. Whilst you might still be thinking this makes little difference, consider that the last winner to defy the trend before Neptune Collonges was Aldaniti in 1981. This year there are nine of the field who will attempt to buck the trend including the likes of Imperial Commander, Joncol and Mumbles Head. The horse returning from the longest absence in the field is Jonjo O�Neill�s Lost Glory with 175 days having past since he won a handicap chase at Chepstow in October. It seems that match practice goes a long way in the Grand National and it would therefore seem sensible to stick with those who have run in the last fifty days.

The amount of weight carried is often an important consideration when making a selection and this can be justified when observing that seven of the last ten winners carried 11st or less to victory. It is true that bigger weights have been carried to victory more recently in the Grand National but in general it is best to stick with 11st as the upper limit. Especially given that before the trio of Neptune Collonges, Don�t Push It and Hedgehunter carried 11st+ round, you have to go back to 1983 when Corbiere won with a weight of 11st 4lb on his back. In this year�s field, those attempting to defy this pattern appear as the first thirteen horses on your race card. Many of the fancied runners appear in this group with Teaforthree, Seabass, Join Together and Colbert Station needing to buck the trend. Perhaps the hardest task is reserved for former Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander who with a weight of 11st 10lb, would be the first winner to carry such a burden since Freebooter carried 11st 11lb in 1950.

It is something of a common theme that previous form at a course often improves the chances of a horse, especially over such unique obstacles as the Grand National fences. Six of the last ten winners had had at least one spin around Aintree in the past, with five of those having previous experience over the National fences. Only a quarter of those taking part this year have never run here in any contest including horses such as Quel Esprit, Teaforthree, Balthazar King and The Rainbow Hunter. You would have to say that you would rather side with a horse who has run here in the past, but given that there are stronger patterns it may be sensible to take it with a pinch of salt.

The final factor worthy of mention is the betting market. One of the great attractions of the Grand National is that it is perceived to be something of a lottery where big-priced winners can often prevail. However, the fact that seven of the last ten winners came from the first eight in the betting suggests that finding the winner may not be as difficult as it first seems. The market is obviously subject to fluctuation between now and 4:15 on Saturday, so it would seem inappropriate to mention any horses, but the betting trend is still a strong one and is worth some consideration.

Shortlist

CAPPA BLEU

On His Own

Chicago Grey

Rare Bob

Conclusion

On His Own has led the ante-post market for the Grand National for several weeks now and looking at the trends, he looks well worth his place on the shortlist. He came here last year at the age of eight and was going well when falling on the second circuit. His preparations were completed in mid-February over hurdles, no doubt with his handicap mark in mind and has twice winner Ruby Walsh onboard to assist him. He has another year under his belt this time and looks set to go close.

Chicago Grey is another horse to have had previous experience over the National fences albeit short-lived having been brought down at only the fifth fence last year. He certainly stays well having won the 4m National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2011 and as long he maintains his concentration when jumping, he could have a good chance for the Gordon Elliott team.

Dessie Hughes� Rare Bob departed at the same fence as Chicago Grey in last year�s renewal having been brought down. This was his first attempt at the Grand National havng had three previous runs at Aintree, one of which came when finishing fifth in the Becher in 2011. It is worth remembering that he was a high-quality novice chaser winning the Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown. His trainer has saddled a top-five finisher in two of the last three years and given that this is his only chance this year, it would be hard to see him too far away at the finish.

The marginal preference is for CAPPA BLEU who like his colleagues on the shortlist matched all six of the trends at the time of writing. Despite being eleven years of age, Evan Williams� gelding has only had nine runs over fences in his career to date. He ran a great race last year to finish fourth on only his seventh chase start and arrives here on a similar mark despite a good run behind Vino Griego last time out. He stays well having also finished third in the Welsh National and having been trained all year with this in mind, I fancy him to run a big race.

5:10 John Smith�s Handicap Hurdle

This race is not covered in the Aintree & Punchestown Festivals Betting Guide but I will give it a quick whiz through anyway.

This handicap used to be one of the strongest of the season in terms of trends but it is hard to argue it is the same race now that professionals are not allowed to ride so relevant trends are no very thin on the ground. For example, five and six-year-olds had won 16 of the 18 renewals up until the changes in 2009 but the next two winners were aged nine and seven. However, five and six-year-olds have won the last two runnings. Since the change, however, horses to run in the Vincent O�Brien County Hurdle have won three of the four runnings compared to being 0-48 going back to 1993.

When this two-mile handicap hurdle opened the card on Grand National Day the Irish had a terrific record winning four times between 2000 and 2007. Although it is no longer on terrestrial television and restricted to conditional and amateur riders since that switch, the Irish still supplied the winner and second two years ago who pulled as much as 14 lengths clear of their other 19 rivals. Clearly any Irish contenders have to be taken very seriously.

The record of the Irish aside, the only stats to have held up since the change are that favourites continue on a losing sequence now being up to 18 on the spin being defeated and that no front runner has won since 1998 and that was only a five-runner race.

Short List

Prince Of Fire

Ranjaan

Kian�s Delight

Conclusion

Given the record of the Irish, I have to include their only contender which is the Charlie Swan-trained PRINCE OF FIRE who warmed up for this with a run on the Flat three weeks ago. His last run over hurdles was back in August, which he won, so this drying ground should be in his favour. Given the good recent record of the County Hurdle of late (three of the last four winners ran in that race), I will include RANJAAN who was a little disappointing but I think flat tracks like Aintree and better ground are more his thing. KIAN�S DELIGHT also contested theCountyHurdle and any Peter Bowen runner has to be looked at closely at Aintree.

5:45 John Smith�s Champion Bumper

As with the previous race, this closing bumper is not featured in the Aintree & Punchestown Festivals Betting Guide but I have given it a quick once over here.

Not a bad renewal last year with The New One beating My Tent Or Yours into second. The New One had previously finished sixth in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival thus becoming the sixth winner of this Grade 2 event to contest that prize, five in the last 13 years. All five were unplaced at Cheltenhamand contenders from that race this year are Purple Bay (5th), Pure Science (6th), Caledonia (10th) and Sgt Reckless (13th).

Of current trainers only Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this race three times. All three of his winners came in the last 14 years during which time he had nine runners in total so Pure Science receives a second tick. Jonjo O�Neill has won this with Classic Native and has two seconds too, including Iris�s Gift and he runs Master Malt.

Other patterns worth noting are that 17 of the 25 winners, including 13of the last 18, had their most recent outing in March and 21 of those 25 winners had run no more than three times beforehand.

Short List

Pure Science

PurpleBay

Master Malt

Sgt Reckless

Conclusion

Nigel Twiston-Davies is gunning for a fourth win in this race with PURE SCIENCE who finished in the same position to last year�s winner for the same yard, The New One, in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper which has been a significant guide so his chance is there for all to see. PURPLE BAY finished one place ahead of Pure Science at Cheltenham so has to also come right into the reckoning in what looked a hot renewal of that Festival Bumper beforehand this year. MASTER MALT didn�t contest the Festival Bumper but Jonjo O�Neill�s record in this race speaks for itself so he too deserves respect. SGT RECKLESS was well fancied so was disappointing atCheltenham finishing only thirteenth. He had looked very smart at Wincanton so perhaps this flatter track is what he wants.