CRAVEN STAKES TRENDS 2013

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The Group 3 Novae Bloodstock Insurance Craven Stakes takes place at Newmarket on Thursday 18th April. It is run over the Rowley Mile, the same course and distance the 2000 Guineas will be run over in early May. The last horse to do the double was Haafhd in 2004.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

Race for 3yos



Weight

Horses carrying a 3lb penalty: 87419621 (2-1-8)



Breeding

8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 3 in a 1M group 1 at 2 or 3 years old

10 of 10 winners were born no later than 7th April



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season

10 of 10 winners had won a race as a 2yo

7 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo (3 exceptions placed first time out & won second start)

7 of 10 winners made their debut as a 2yo at Newmarket

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 82+ on first career start

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 106+ on last start

8 of 10 winners (last 7) had previously won at Newmarket

8 of 10 winners (last 7) had won over 7F+

9 of 10 winners contested a group race as a 2yo (4 won, 3 placed, 2 unplaced in Dewhurst), 1 exception was unbeaten in 2 runs

7 of 10 winners ran at Newmarket on their previous start



Other Races

Acomb Stakes winner (Dundonnell): 1 (1-0-1)

Champagne Stakes winner (Toronado): 81 (1-0-2)

Tattersall Stakes winner (Havana Gold): 342 (0-2-3)

Winkfield Stakes winner (Toronado): 2 (0-1-1)

Horris Hill Stakes winner (Tawhid): 3 (0-0-1)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst last time out, finishing 3755

3 of 10 winners ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 331

2 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersalls Stakes last time out, finishing 32

2 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy last time out, finishing 24

2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Solario Stakes, finishing 14

2 of 10 winners ran in 7F Weatherbys EBF Maiden at Newmarket in July, finishing 11



Trainers

Richard Hannon (2-4-13) trained the winner in 2001, 2003 and also more recently saddled the runner-up in 2011 and the first 2 home last year.

Roger Charlton (0-1-1) trained Three Valleys to finish 2nd in 2004 and Aidan O’Brien (0-1-2) trained 2nd in 2002 and 3rd in 2008.



Price

8 of 10 winners (last 7) came from the first 3 in the betting

The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 12/1 and only 2 winners were sent off bigger than 9/2.

Favourites (4-2-11) have won 4 of the last 10, including 3 of the last 4 but show a level stakes loss of 2.45.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Sire won or placed in a 1M group 1 as a 2 or 3 year old

· Having first run of the season

· Won a race over 7F+ as a 2yo

· Won on first start as a 2yo, posting RPR of 82+ (ideally at Newmarket)

· Contested a group race or unbeaten

· Ran at Newmarket last time out

· Posted an RPR of 106+ on last outing

· Course winner

· Finished in first 4 in Solario and/or Champagne Stakes

· Finished in first 4 in Racing Post Trophy, Dewhurst or Tattersalls Stakes last time

· Trained by Richard Hannon