PUNCHESTOWN CHAMPION CHASE TRENDS 2013

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The Boylesports.com Champion Chase is the highlight of the first day of the 2013 Punchestown Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 23rd April. The first 2 from the Queen Mother Champion Chase, Sprinter Sacre & Sizing Europe as well as Ryanair winner, Cue Card, and 2012 Champion Chase winner Finian’s Rainbow all hold entries in what looks a high class renewal of the race.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 2-0-3

7yo: 0-1-3

8yo: 3-6-22

9yo: 2-3-22

10yo: 3-1-13

11yo+: 0-1-9

6yos have won the last 2 of the last 5 runnings of this race and failed to have a representative in the other 3 runnings since 2008.

All 3 winners aged 10 had previously won the Queen Mother and had run well in this race previously (Sizing Europe & Big Zeb had both finished 2nd before winning aged 10, Moscow Flyer unseated when looking the likely winner the year before he won it aged 10).



Breeding

Irish bred: 6-10-47

French bred: 4-2-13

British bred: 0-0-7

Other: 0-0-5

10 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred but younger French breds and older Irish bred horses have held the edge.

French bred horses aged 6 to 8: 4-1-7

French bred horses age 9+: 0-1-6

Irish bred horses aged 6 to 8: 1-6-14

Irish bred horses age 9+: 5-4-33

All 4 French bred winners began their NH career in an Auteuil Hurdle.



Recent/Past Form

5 of 10 winners won last time out (4 of 5 others finished in first 6 in Queen Mother)

10 of 10 winners had run in the previous 50 days

10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase

8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (2 exceptions finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1)

7 of 10 winners (last 5) had won multiple grade 1 chases

9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season (exception had 10 runs)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 2 to 4 chases that season

10 of 10 winners had run in at least 8 chases (winning at least 4)

8 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers (2 exceptions won previous season's Queen Mother)

10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 1F+



Other races

Defending Champion Chaser (Sizing Europe): 5P43 (0-0-4)

Tingle Creek winner (Sprinter Sacre): 1211R1 (4-1-6)

Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet winner (Sizing Europe): U1532113 (3-2-8)

Queen Mother Champion Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): U2112 (2-2-5)

Hilly Way Chase winner (Days Hotel): 1314 (2-0-4)

Melling Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 12 (1-1-2)

Tied Cottage Chase winner (Sizing Europe): UU236P41 (1-1-8)

Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 1 (1-0-1)

Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 1 (1-0-1)

Victor Chandler Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 1R (1-0-2)

Previous season's Maghull Novice Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 14 (1-0-2)

Previous season's Arkle winner (Sprinter Sacre): U22 (0-2-3)

Normans Grove Chase winner (Foildubh): 52P74 (0-1-5)

Paddypower.com Chase winner (Days Hotel): 23564 (0-1-5)

8 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother, finishing 5U161622

5 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 41111

4 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase, finishing 1411

3 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in the Tied Cottage, finishing 221

3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing U22

2 of 10 winners ran in the Victor Chandler Chase, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in the Red Mills Chase, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in the Kinloch Brae, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Hilly Way Chase, finishing 11



Trainers

British based trainers (3-1-11) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings, including 2 of the last 5 from approximately 15.3% of the total runners.

Henry De Bromhead (1-2-4) trained Sizing Europe to win this last season and be placed in the previous 2 renewals.



Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below

All 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and no horse priced over 12/1 has made the places since 2004.

Favourites (5-3-10) have won 5 of last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.97.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· French bred aged 6 to 8 or Irish bred aged 9+

· Run in the past 50 days

· Won last time out (or finished 2nd to 6th in Queen Mother)

· Won a grade 1 chase (preferably multiple grade 1’s)

· Has run 3 to 5 times season, winning at least twice

· Run at least 8 times over fences, winning at least four

· Second or third season chaser (or previous Queen Mother winner)

· Finished in the first 6 in the Queen Mother Champion Chase

· Won the Tingle Creek and/or PP Dial-A-Bet Chase

· First 2 in Hilly Way, Tied Cottage and/or 2012 Punchestown Champion Chase

· Won a chase over 2M 1F+

· Trained in Britain

· From first 5 in the betting (8/1 or lower)