The Herald Champion Novice Hurdle takes place on Tuesday 23rd April, the first day of the 2013 Punchestown Festival. It is a grade 1 run over 2 miles for novice hurdlers and the Royal Bond & Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have proven the best guides in recent years.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 4-10-37
6yo: 4-4-29
7yo: 1-3-14
8yo: 1-0-5
No strong trends on ages of the winners.
Gender
Mares (0-0-4) have a poor record, with all 4 female runners since 2003 failing to make the frame. Since 2000 the 6 female runners have finished last, second last or pulled up.
Breeding
Irish bred: 8-10-57
German bred: 2-1-8
French bred: 0-3-6
NZ bred: 0-1-1
American bred: 0-1-3
British bred: 0-1-9
Italian bred: 0-0-1
8 of 10 winners were Irish bred, though they have accounted for 69.3% of total runners in past 10 years.
German & French bred horses have done well, gained 2 wins and 4 places from a combined 14 runners (16.5% of total runners)
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (6 won)
9 of 10 winners finished in first 2 in a grade 1 or 2 on last hurdles start
8 of 10 winners posted career high RPR last time (2 exceptions did so on penultimate start)
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times since September
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 5 times over hurdles (8 had won 2+)
8 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle (1 exception 2nd in grade 2 & other 3rd in grade 1)
5 of 10 winners had won a grade 1
7 of 10 winners made their debut in a bumper (2 of 3 horses to have run on the flat had won a listed or group race)
Other races
Royal Bond Hurdle winner (Jezki): 1141 (3-0-4)
Record of first 3 from Royal Bond in this: 11141U1 (5-0-7)
Supreme Novices Hurdle winner (Champagne Fever): 1184 (2-0-4)
Record of first 3 from Supreme Novices in this: 1112842 (3-2-7)
Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Novice Hurdle winner (Pique Sous): 3F121 (2-2-5)
Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Champagne Fever): 1 (1-0-1)
Highest placed finisher from the Deloitte Novice Hurdle: 15U1 (2-0-4)
County Hurdle winner (Ted Veale): 1 (1-0-1)
Future Champion Novices Hurdle winner (Jezki): F1 (1-0-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Royal Bond, finishing 211251
4 of 10 winners ran in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, finishing 1120
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Novice H'dle, finishing 121
2 of 10 winners ran in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the For Auction Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
Trainers
Noel Meade (4-0-15) has won 4 of the last 11 runnings of this race.
Willie Mullins (2-4-9) trained the 1-2 in 2009 & 2010 but his 3 runners last year were all unplaced, though the fact he ran 3 may have signified the lack a top class novice over 2M in the yard.
Mouse Morris (0-1-1) & Gordon Elliot (0-1-2) have both saddled a placed finisher since 2003.
British trained runners (0-4-10) have a poor record in this race, failing to win with any of their 10 representatives and gaining just 4 places. They have been responsible for 2 favourites in past 10 years.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting
All 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below & came from the first 4 in the betting.
Favourites (6-3-10) have won 6 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 4.28.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Irish or German bred
· Finished in first 2 last time in a grade 1 or 2
· Posted a career high RPR of 139+ last time
· Run in 2 to 6 hurdles races since September
· Won 1 to 5 times over hurdles
· Won a graded hurdle (preferably a grade 1)
· Bumper winner or listed/group winner on the flat
· Finished in first 2 in Royal Bond and/or Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
· Finished in first 3 in Deloitte and/or Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Nov H'dle
· Trained by Willie Mullins or Noel Meade
· From first 2 in the betting (no bigger than 8/1)
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