The highlight of day 3 of Punchestown’s Festival, Thursday 25th April, is the grade 1 Ladbrokes World Series Hurdle. This race is run over 3 miles and usually attracts the best staying hurdlers from Britain and Quevega, who has won the past 3 runnings, will be looking to make it 4 in a row, though could have stiff competition from World Hurdle winner, Solwhit. It’s worth noting though that its Cheltenham equivalent has been a poor guide to this race.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-3-7

6yo: 3-3-19

7yo: 3-7-29

8yo: 3-4-18

9yo: 0-1-11

10yo: 0-0-8

11yo+: 1-0-4

Horses aged 5 to 7: 6-13-55

Horses aged 8 or older: 4-5-41

The ages of the winners has been quite well spread out though in recent years younger horses have held the call with 9 of the last 10 winners aged 6 to 8 and only 2 horses aged above 8 have made the frame in the past 10 years, both trained in Britain.



Gender

Mares (5-3-11) received a 7lb allowance and have made the most of that, gaining 5 wins and 3 places from just 11 runners. 5 of last 7 runnings have gone to mares, one of the other runnings had no female runners while the only mare in the other running finished 2nd.



Breeding

Irish bred: 5-14-60

French bred: 3-0-16

British bred: 2-1-10

German bred: 0-2-6

American bred: 0-1-4

No strong trends on the breeding.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (7 won)

8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 151+ in last 2 starts

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days

8 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers (2 exceptions were Quevega winning it for 2nd & 3rd time)

6 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (4 exceptions all grade 1 winners having first try at 3M+)

7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (2 exceptions placed in grade 1 & other having first start in grade 1)

6 of 10 winners were course winners (other 4 were having their first course start)



Punchestown Festival Form

Defending Punchestown Staying Hurdler (Quevega): 48211 (2-1-5)

Previous season's Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Nov Hurdle winner (Dedigout): 1 (1-0-1)

7 of 10 winners previously won or placed at Festival, other 3 having first run at Punchestown Festival

3 of 10 winners had run in the 2M 4F Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Novice Hurdle, finishing 1P2.

2 of 10 winners ran in previous World Series Hurdle, finishing 11



Cheltenham Festival Form

David Nicholson Mares Hurdle winner (Quevega): 111 (3-0-3)

World Hurdle winner (Solwhit): 2 (0-1-1)

Highest placed finisher in the World Hurdle to run in this: 2P3P66922 (0-4-9)

9 of 10 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (3 Mares Hurdle, 2 Pertemps, 2 Champion Hurdle, 1 Coral Cup, 1 World Hurdle)

3 of 10 winners (all Quevega) ran in Mares Hurdle last time, finishing 111

2 of 10 winners ran in the Pertemps Final, finishing 50

2 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 8F

Only 1 of last 10 winners ran in that season’s World Hurdle at Cheltenham



Other races

Liverpool Hurdle winner (Solwhit): P1 (1-0-2)

Hattons Grace Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 5352 (0-2-4)

Lismullen Hurdle winner (Whatuthink): 35072 (0-2-5)

Cleeve Hurdle winner (Reve De Sivola): 3 (0-1-1)

Red Mills Trial Hurdle winner (So Young): 25 (0-1-2)

Highest placed finisher in the Liverpool Hurdle: 23P1706 (1-2-7)

Highest placed finisher in the Aintree Hurdle: 21117 (3-1-5)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out, finishing 112

2 of 10 winners ran in the John Smith's Handicap Hurdle last time out, finishing 03

6 of last 9 winners ran at Aintree last time out (Quevega accounts for other 3, she won Mares Hurdle on her previous start before winning this the last 3 years)



Trainers

Willie Mullins (5-2-18) has won the race 5 times in past 10 years, including the last 4 and the last 3 with Quevega.

British trained runners (4-7-21) have a strong record in this race, having won 4 of the last 10 runnings with almost half of their representatives making the places.

Jonjo O’Neill (2-3-6) has gained 2 wins and 3 places from his 6 runners since 2003.

Gordon Elliot (0-1-2) & Oliver McKiernan (0-1-2) have both saddled a placed finisher.



Price

8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

There have been two shock winners at 16/1 and 25/1 (both trained in Britain) but other than those two the other 8 winners were all sent off 6/1 or lower.

Favourites (6-2-10) have a very good record having won 6 of the last 10 (including the last 5), giving a level stakes profit of 5.53.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 8 or younger (or a previous winner)
Mares have a very strong record
Finished in the first 3 last time out in the past 50 days
Posted an RPR of 151+ in one or both of last 2 starts
A second or third season hurdler (or won/placed in last year’s race)
Won a grade 1 hurdle
Won over 3M+ (or trying 3M+ for first time)
Previously won or placed at Punchestown Festival
Course winner (or having first run here)
Ran at the Aintree Festival last time (or in Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham)
Horses that ran well in Aintree Hurdle do well
Avoid horses that finished in the first 3 in the 2013 World Hurdle
Trained by Jonjo O’Neill or by Willie Mullins
Priced 6/1 or below (favourites do well)