The Betdaq Peoples Exchange Champion Bumper takes place on day 2 of the Punchestown Festival on Wednesday 24th April. A grade 1 run over 2 miles, it should attract several runners from the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, from which 4 of the last 5 winners of this have come.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:


Age

4yo: 2-4-26

5yo: 3-8-73

6yo: 4-7-48

7yo: 1-1-10

No very strong stats on ages of winners.



Gender

Mares (1-3-28) have won 1 of last 10 from approximately 17.8% of total runners.



Breeding

Irish bred: 9-14-130

French bred: 1-1-6

GB bred: 0-3-15

NZ bred: 0-1-1

USA bred: 0-1-3

German bred: 0-0-2

7 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winner (2 of 3 exceptions sired by a stallion that was placed in either the French Derby or English 2000 Guineas, other was sired by a Sadler's Wells stallion who ran just twice)

7 of 10 winners sired by a stallion that won or placed in a European Classic



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out (exception was 4th in grade 2 Aintree bumper)

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August

9 of 10 winners had won 1 or 2 bumpers (exception had won 3)

10 of 10 winners won a bumper with 10+ runners

6 of 10 winners had won a bumper by 6+ lengths (2 exceptions had finished in first 2 in Champion Bumper)

6 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 or 2 bumper

2 of 10 winners had won at Punchestown (other 8 having first run here)

9 of 10 winners had won at a right-handed track

8 of 8 Irish-trained winners had won a bumper at Punchestown, Fairyhouse, Limerick or Navan



Other Races

Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner (Briar Hill): 42111 (3-1-5)

Irish Form Book "Future Champions" INH Flat Race winner (Union Dues): 2341d (1-2-4)

Easter Festival Flat Race winner (The Mighty Milan): 21003 (1-2-5)

P.J. Foley Memorial INH Flat Race winner (Sizing Tennessee): 16 (1-0-2)

Holycross INH Flat Race winner (Briar Hill): 3 (0-1-1)

5 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) ran in the Cheltenham Champion bumper, finishing 41101

2 of 10 winners ran in the Future Champions Bumper, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in Easter Festival Flat Race, finishing 12



Trainers

Noel Meade (3-2-10) has gained 3 wins and 2 places from 10 runners in this.

Willie Mullins (3-2-21) has trained 3 of the last 5 winners.

Dermot Weld (1-2-6) has seen his last 3 runners in this finish 3rd-1st-2nd.

British trained horses (2-1-18) have won 2 of last 10 from approximately 11.5% of total runners.



Racing Tactics

9 of 10 winners were positioned in the first 7 at the halfway point

This is not a race you want to be too far forward or too far back. The winner has generally raced prominently or settled in midfield. Champagne Fever became first horse to make all in the race last year.



Price

8 of 10 winners (last 8) were sent off 10/1 or shorter

No very strong trends on prices though the longest priced winner since 2003 has been 14/1 and the last 5 winners went off 8/1 or shorter and came from first 3 in the betting.

Favourites (4-2-11) have won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 3.40.


Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Gelding sired by a group 1 or 2 winner on flat (ideally placed in a classic)

· Run 2 to 5 times since August

· Finish 1st or 2nd last time

· Won 1 to 3 bumpers

· Won a bumper with 10+ runners

· Won a bumper by 6 lengths or more

· Contested a grade 1 or 2

· Won bumper at Limerick, Fairyhouse Punchestown or Navan

· Finished in first 4 in Cheltenham Champion Bumper

· Finished in first 2 in Future Champions and/or Eastern Festival Flat Race

· Tends to race prominently

· Trained by Noel Meade, Willie Mullins or Dermot Weld

· Priced 10/1 or shorter