The Qipco 1000 Guineas takes place at Newmarket on Sunday, 5th May. Run over a mile for fillies only, it has thrown up a few surprise results in the past few years, with Ghanaati in 2009 winning at 20/1, Blue Bunting at 16/1 in 2011 and Homecoming Queen at 25/1 last year. Jacqueline Quest at 66/1 was first past the post in 2010 but subsequently disqualified.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
Race for 3yos
Breeding
American bred: 4-3-28
Irish bred: 3-8-65
British bred: 2-7-69
French bred: 1-1-4
Japan Bred: 0-1-1
Other: 0-0-3
Horses bred in GB & Ire: 5-15-134
Horse bred outside of GB & Ire: 5-5-36
American bred horses have won 4 of last 10 from approximately 16.5% of total runners.
9 of 10 were by a sire that finished in first 2 in a group 1 over 6F to 1M
Daughters of Mr Greeley to run in this: 130 (1-1-3)
Daughters of Holy Roman Emperor to run in this: 01 (1-0-2)
Daughters of Galileo to run in this: 623023 (0-4-6)
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won last time
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 105+ last time (2 exceptions posted a career high RPR last time)
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Newmarket (3 exceptions had yet to run there)
9 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (1 exception had yet to run in a class 1 race)
9 of 10 winners won or placed on first turf start as a 2yo (exception was unplaced in a group 3 on debut as a 2yo)
9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners had previously won at least 2 races
5 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (4 of other 5 won a recognised Guineas Trial last time)
10 of 10 winners had won over 6F to 8F
The 3 French-trained runners that had won a class 1 juvenile race against colts finished 2nd-1st-1st in this. What A Name won the group 3 Prix La Rochette against colts last year.
2yo Races
Rockfel Stakes winner (Just The Judge): 02110060 (2-1-8)
Loder European Breeders Fund 2yo Fillies Race winner (Snow Queen): 183 (1-1-3)
Princess Margaret Stakes winner (Maureen): 17 (1-0-2)
Moyglare Stud Stakes (Sky Lantern): 070303 (0-2-6)
Weld Park Stakes winner (Magical Dream): 2 (0-1-1)
Star Stakes winner (Roz): 2 (0-1-1)
Pumpmatic Pump Stations Fillies Maiden winner (Just The Judge): 3 (0-1-1)
Coolmore Stud EBF Sprint Stakes winner (Sky Lantern): 2 (0-1-1)
Fred Darling winner (Maureen): 90380 (0-1-5)
Prestige Stakes winner (Ollie Olga): 04 (0-0-2)
Dick Poole Stakes winner (Winning Express): 00 (0-0-2)
Firth Of Clyde Stakes winner (Melody Of Love): 0P5 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Cheveley Park Stakes, finishing 211
2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 2 French-trained ran in the Prix Robert Papin, finishing 11
2 of 2 French-trained ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 22
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in CL Weld Park Stakes, finishing 32
3yo Trials
Prix Imprudence winner (What A Name): 2170 (1-1-4)
Nell Gwynn Stakes winner (Hot Snap): 08417465 (1-0-8)
2 of 2 French-trained ran in the Prix Imprudence, finishing 13
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial, finishing 11
Trainers
British trained runners: 5-12-129
Irish trained runners: 3-6-33
French trained runners: 2-2-7
French-trained runners (2-2-7) have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 7 runners in the past 10 years. Both winners had won a group race against colts as 2yos and also finished in first 2 in a group 1 against colts.
Aidan O’Brien (2-2-16) trained the winner in 2005, the 2nd in 2011 and the 1st & 3rd in 2012.
Henry Cecil (0-1-1) has trained the winner of this 6 times, and saddled 3 winners in 4 years between 1996 & 1999. His only runner since 2003 has been Jacqueline Quest (1st past post in 2010, demoted to 2nd).
Richard Hannon (0-1-7) trained Nasheej to finish 3rd in 2006 but his last 5 runners have all been unplaced.
Trainers who have not done so well in the race recently include Clive Brittain (0-0-6) and Mick Channon (0-0-13).
Price
No strong trends on prices though there have been a few upsets in recent years with 3 of the last 4 winners going off at 16/1 or bigger and but for Jacqueline Quest’s disqualification, the last 4 winners would have been priced 20/1, 66/1, 16/1 & 25/1.
Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of last 6 & show a level stakes profit of 1.50 since 2003.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
American bred fillies do well
Sired by a horse that finished 1st or 2nd in a group 1 over 6F to 1M
Run at least 3 times as a 2yo & won or placed on first career turf start
Won last time out (posting an RPR of 105+)
Having first run of 2013 or won a recognised 1000 Guineas Trial last time
Previously won a listed or group race
Won over 6F to 8F
Course winner (or having first run at Newmarket)
Finished in first 2 in Rockfel, CL Weld Park and/or Cheveley Park Stakes
French trained that finished in first 3 in Prix Imprudence or
Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Henry Cecil
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