VICTORIA CUP TRENDS 2013

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The big handicap on Saturday 11th May is the Betfred Victoria Cup at Ascot, a class 2 heritage handicap run over 7 furlongs. It always attracts a big field and the draw can often make a big difference. In 2005 the race was run at Lingfield.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 5-10-85

5yo: 3-10-75

6yo: 1-5-42

7yo+: 1-5-42

8 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5

Horses aged 6+ have managed 2 wins from 84 runners (34.4% of total runners) in past 10 years.



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 9-0 or more: 2-15-94

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-11-84

Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 2-4-66

8 of 10 winners carried 8-5 to 8-13

Top weight: 2947000006 (0-2-10)



Official Ratings

Horses rated 98 or higher: 1-9-58

Horses rated 90 to 97: 6-19-129

Horses rated 89 or lower: 3-2-57

7 of the last 8 winners have been officially rated between 88 and 96.



Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners had run once or twice that year

9 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days

9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or higher last time

8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 95+ last time out

9 of 10 winners won over 7F or further

7 of 10 winners won a race worth 9K+

8 of 10 winners won at class 3 or higher

7 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps (2 of 3 exceptions post an RPR of 103+ on previous start)



Other Races

Previous season's winner: 4400 (0-2-4)

Spring Cup H'cap winner (Haaf A Sixpence): 4 (0-1-1)

Racing To School Handicap winner (Monsieur Chevalier): 4 (0-1-1)

Betfred The Bonus King H'cap winner (Tartiflette): 52 (0-1-2)

Longines Handicap winner (Redvers): 300 (0-1-3)

Record of horses placed in previous Bunbury Cup: 0184100 (2-1-7)

Record of first 4 from Spring Cup: 7410001 (2-1-7)

2 of 10 winners ran in Spring Cup last time, finishing 33

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Ayr Gold Cup, finishing 00

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's International Stakes, finishing 03

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Bunbury Cup, finishing 24



Trainers

David Barron (1-2-5) has gained a win and 2 places from 5 runners in past 10 runnings.

David Marnane (1-0-1) saddled Dandy Boy to win this in 2010.

Ed Dunlop (0-2-6) & Richard Fahey (0-2-8) have each saddled a couple of placed finishers since 2003.



Draw (ignoring 2005 race at Lingfield)

Horses drawn 1 to 9: 5-13-81

Horses drawn 10 to 19: 2-12-90

Horses drawn 21 or higher: 2-2-55

No very strong trends on the draw though in past 10 years, though 11 of 16 places in past 4 renewals were filled by horses drawn 1 to 9.



Racing Tactics (ignoring 2005 race at Lingfield)

7 of 9 winners were held up in midfield or in rear

Only 2 winners of the race at Ascot since 2003 raced prominently throughout.



Price

No very strong trend on prices with 6 of 10 winners coming from first 3 in the betting and the other 4 winners priced 14/1 or bigger.

Favourites (3-2-11) have gained 3 wins in past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 2.75.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 4 or 5

· Carrying 8-5 to 8-13

· Officially rated 88 to 99

· Run no more than twice in 2013

· Ran a class 2 or higher last time out in past 40 days

· Posted an RPR of 95+ last time out

· Won over 7F+

· Won a class 3 or higher worth 9K+

· Placed in 2012 Bunbury Cup and/or 2013 Spring Cup

· Tends to be held up

· Trained by David Barron or David Marnane

· Horses drawn 1 to 9 favoured