DANTE STAKES TRENDS 2013

[ganjaman2]

The Betfred Dante Stakes, on Thursday 16th May, is the highlight of York’s May meeting. Three of the last nine winners of the Dante went on to win the Epsom Derby so whatever wins this will likely move towards the top of the Derby market.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

Race for 3yos



Breeding

Irish bred: 6-4-28

British bred: 2-6-29

American bred: 2-1-11

German bred: 0-2-3

French bred: 0-0-1

Irish and American bred horses have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 54.2% of total runners.

10 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner (8 of 10 sires won a group 1 over 1M 2F+)

10 of 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 9.0f to 11.6f

5 of the last 8 winners were sired by Sadler's Wells or a son of Sadler's Wells



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts

10 of 10 winners had won a race

7 of 10 winners won last time

9 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 101+ last time

8 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M+ (2 exceptions both trained by Aidan O'Brien had only won over 7F)

6 of 10 winners were making their seasonal debut

5 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (3 of 5 exceptions won their maiden last time out, other 2 exceptions finished 3rd in a group race last time)

10 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut over 7F or 1M

6 of 7 British-trained winners made their debut at Sandown, Salisbury or Newmarket



Other Races

Racing Post Trophy winner: 1618 (2-0-4)

Highest placed finisher from Racing Post Trophy: 1612823 (2-2-7)

Dubai Duty Free Golf World Cup Conditions Stakes winner (Contributer): 322 (0-3-3)

Autumn Stakes winner (Trading Leather): 5 (0-0-1)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 131

2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien winners were unplaced in the Prix La Force last time out

2 of 10 winners (last 2) made debut as 2yos in Moors Colson EBF Maiden, finishing 21



The Epsom Derby

Record of the Dante winner in the Epsom Derby reads 911012036 (3-3-9)



Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (3-3-10) has seen 6 of his 7 runners since 2006 have finished 1st or 2nd.

Michael Stoute (3-2-8) has trained the winner 4 times since 2000, all 4 winners were making seasonal debut after running twice as 2yos, finishing 2nd & 1st on two runs to date.

David Elsworth (0-1-3) & John Gosden (0-1-3) have both managed to fill a place since 2003.

Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-8) last won the race in 2002 but has only seen 1 of his 8 runners make the frame in last 10 years.



Price

No strong trends on prices but there has been no winner priced over 12/1 in the past 10 years and 9 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting.

Favourites (3-4-10) have gained 3 wins in the past 10 year, giving a level stakes loss of 3.47.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Irish or USA bred

· By a group 1 winner over 1M 2F+ with stamina index of 9.0f to 11.6f

· Had 2 to 5 career starts

· Had first ever run over 7F or 1M (ideally at Newmarket, Salisbury or Sandown)

· Posted an RPR of 101+ last time out

· Previously won a group/listed race or won their maiden last time out

· Won over 1M+

· Finished in first 3 in the 2012 Racing Post Trophy

· Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Michael Stoute