TATTERSALLS GOLD CUP TRENDS 2013

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The Tattersalls Gold Cup takes place on the undercard of the Curragh’s 1000 Guineas day on Sunday 26th May. It’s a group 1 race run over 1M 2½F and has been won by some top class horses since the start of the turn of the millennium, including Montjeu, Fantastic Light, Hurricane Run and So You Think. Camelot looks to have scared off most of the serious competition in this year’s race.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age

4yo: 7-7-33

5yo: 2-1-14

6yo: 1-1-9

7yo+: 0-2-3

7 of 10 winners were aged 4, though they have represented approximately 55.9% of the total runners. So You Think has won the race as a 5yo & 6yo in past 2 years, though in 2011 there was no 4yos represented and last year the two 4yps were sent off 9/1 & 33/1.



Gender

The 10 mares to run in this race have finished: 8228623344 (0-2-10)



Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 114+ last time

10 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F+

10 of 10 winners had won a Group 1 or 2

8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions had been 2nd in a group 1)

10 of 10 winners had run no more than twice that season

7 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh (1 exception was having first course start & other 2 had finished in the first 3 in a group 1 here)

10 of 10 winners were officially rated 116 or higher



Other Races

Previous season's Irish Derby winner (Camelot): 1121 (3-1-4)

Mooresbridge Stakes winner (Camelot): 311 (2-0-3)

5 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Irish Derby, finishing 61121

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's French Derby, finishing 52

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Epsom Derby, finishing 32

4 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Arc, finsihing 0016

4 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 4221

3 of 10 winners ran in the Newmarket Champion Stakes, finishing 862

2 of 10 winners ran in Mooresbridge Stakes last time, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Ganay last time, finishing 91

2 of 10 winners ran in the Judmonte International Stakes, finishing 14

2 of 10 winners ran in the Alleged Stakes, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in Prince Of Wales' Stakes, finishing 52

2 of 10 winners ran in Eclipse Stakes, finishing 21



Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (6-1-14) has won 6 of the last 10 runnings of this race.

Dermot Weld (2-2-8) trained the winner in 2005, saddled the first two home in 2009 and also saddled the runner-up last year.

British-trained runners (1-4-15) have won just 1 of last 10 from over a quarter of total runners.



Price

10 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter

Nine runners has been the biggest field for this race since 2003 so it’s no surprise that all winners have been short enough in the betting.

Favourites (5-4-10) have won 5 of the last 10 however 4 of last 9 odds-on favourites to run in this have been turned over in the past 10 years. Favourites show a level stakes loss of 3.57 over past 10 years.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Fillies & mares have a poor record

· Had no more than 2 runs in 2013

· Posted an RPR of 114+ last time out

· Won over 1M 2F or further

· Won a group 1

· Course winner (or having first start here)

· Officially rated 116+

· Ran in the Irish, Epsom and/or French Derby’s last season

· Ran in last season’s Arc and/or Irish Champion Stakes

· If had a turf run this season, ran in Mooresbridge or Prix Ganay last time

· Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Dermot Weld

· Priced 7/1 or below