royal ascot 2013 - 18th - 22nd june day 1 trends

[ganjaman2]

QUEEN ANNE STAKES TRENDS 2013



The 2013 Royal Ascot meeting begins on Tuesday 18th June and the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes is a superb race to kick off what is five of the best days of flat racing you will see anywhere in the world this year. The great Frankel won the race last year by a wide margin but this year’s race looks far more competitive and could feature Dubai World Cup winner, Animal Kingdom.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 7-7-52

5yo: 3-6-29

6yo+: 0-5-18

10 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5

4yos have held a slight edge over 5 year olds in past 10 runnings, though you have to go back to 1976 for the last winner aged over 5.



Gender

In 2010 Goldikova became first mare to win the since it was upgraded to Pattern status back in 1971

Nine fillies or mares have run in this in the past decade, finishing 762473212 (1-4-9).

7 of the 9 mares were sent off at less than 8/1 (5 were favourite)



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners won over 1M to 1M 1F (exception was 2nd in previous year's St James Palace)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had had 9 to 17 career starts

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a Group 1

9 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season (exception had run 3 times)

8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 115+ last time

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days



Other Races

Record of horse who ran in previous year's race: 25007472322 (0-5-13), won/placed runners returning: 2522 (0-3-4)

Lockinge winner (Farhh): 7247211 (2-2-7)

Previous season's St James Palace winner (Most Improved): 11 (2-0-2)

Prix Rothschild winner (Elusive Kate): 212 (1-2-3)

Bet365 Mile winner (Trumpet Major): 900212 (1-2-6)

Falmouth Stakes winner (Giofra): 1 (1-0-1)

Diomed Stakes winner (Gregorian): 3 (0-1-1)

Previous season's French 1000 Guineas winner (Beauty Parlour): 2 (0-1-1)

Thoroughbred Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 34 (0-1-2)

Park Stakes winner (Libranno): 6878 (0-0-4)

6 of 10 winners ran in the Lockinge Stakes last time out, finishing 826411

2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Ipshahan last time, finishing 11

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in previous year's Greenham Stakes, finishing 121

3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's 2000 Guineas, finishing 131

3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's St James Palace Stakes, finishing 211

3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Sussex Stakes, finishing 311

3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's BC Mile, finishing 901

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in previous year's Prix de la Foret, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in that season's Dubai Duty Free, finishing 88

Record of horses that ran in the Lockinge that season: 6-8-33

Record of horses that did not run in the Lockinge: 4-10-66



Trainers

British trained runners: 6-13-69

French trained runners: 2-3-12

Irish trained runners: 2-2-12 (both winners trained by A O’Brien)

Any other: 0-0-6

Saeed Bin Suroor (3-0-10) has won this 3 times in past 10 years, most recently in 2007.

Richard Hannon (2-1-6) & Aidan O’Brien (2-1-10) have each trained 2 of last 7 winners.

Henry Cecil (1-0-3) won the race with Frankel last year.

Andrew Balding (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners make the places at odds of 50/1 & 33/1.

Alain De Royer-Dupre (0-1-3) went very close to winning this with Darjina in 2008, he has another female runner entered this year, with Giofra.



Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)

Horses drawn 1 to 3: 4-9-27

Horses drawn 4 to 6: 0-5-27

Horses drawn 7 to 9: 3-2-24

Horses drawn 10 or higher: 2-1-14

Since 2000, 11 of 12 winners at Ascot were drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls.



Price

9 of 10 winners went off 7/1 or shorter & came from first 4 in the betting

Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with all but one of the last 10 winners going off at single figure odds, however the favourite has won just twice in last 10 years.

Favourites (2-3-10) have gained just 2 wins and 3 places since 2003, giving a level stakes profit of 6.52. 3 of last 4 odds on favourites have been defeated.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 4 or 5

· Won over 1M to 1M 1F

· Won a group 1

· Had 1 or 2 previous runs in 2013 (& 9 to 17 career starts)

· Has run in the past 40 days

· Ran in the Lockinge or Prix D’Isphahan last time out

· First 3 in Prix de la Foret, 2000 Guineas and/or Sussex Stakes in 2012

· First 2 in Greenham and/or St James’ Palace in 2012

· Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor, Richard Hannon or Aidan O’Brien

· Drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls

· Price less than 7/1

[ganjaman2]

KING'S STAND STAKES TRENDS 2013




The King’s Stand Stakes is the second race of day 1 of the Royal Ascot meeting. Run over 5 furlongs, it was promoted to a group 1 class in 2008. In the past 10 years the race has been dominated by overseas runners with 7 of the last 10 winners being trained outside of Britain and Ireland.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-3-34

4yo: 2-6-44

5yo: 2-5-36

6yo: 3-3-33

7yo+: 2-1-21

8yo+: 0-2-16

Horses aged 3 or 4 have a combined record of 3-9-78

Horses aged 5 or older have a record of 7-11-106

Nothing major to be gleaned from the age stats. The two 3yo winners since 2000 had both won or placed in a group race as 2yos.

No horse aged over 7 has won this in past 40 years.



Gender

Fillies & mares (1-5-34) have won 1 of last 10 from approximately 18.5% of total runners.



Breeding

Australian bred: 4-3-14

French bred: 3-0-7

GB bred: 1-10-78

Irish bred: 1-6-64

New Zealand bred: 1-0-4

South African bred: 0-1-3

American bred: 0-0-14

Horses bred in Australia & New Zealand: 5-3-18

Horse bred in GB & Ireland: 2-16-142

3 of 7 French bred horses to run in this have been successful, though Equiano accounted for 2 of those wins.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that year

9 of 10 winners had won a race that year

8 of 10 winners (last 8) finished in first 2 last time out (2 exceptions finished 4th in group 2 and 6th in group 1)

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 116+ last time out

10 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 116+ earlier that year

8 of 10 winners had won a group race (1 exception was a listed winner and other had twice been placed in a group 2)

5 of 10 winners had won a group 1 sprint (3 others finished in first 6 in a group 1 sprint the previous season and other 2 had not run in a group 1 sprint prior to this)

10 of 10 winners had won over 6F

9 of 10 winners had won over 5F (exception runner-up in a 5F group 2)

2 of 3 British-trained winners had won at Ascot (other was placed in a group 2 and Wokingham here)



Other Races

Newmarket Handicap winner (Shamexpress): 111 (3-0-3)

Palace House Stakes winner (Sole Power): 340010 (1-1-6)

Coral Charge Sprint Stakes winner (Caledonia Lady): 1006 (1-0-4)

Scarborough Stakes winner (Sole Power): 0001 (1-0-4)

Temple Stakes winner (Kingsgate Native): 003682 (0-2-6)

Middle Park Stakes winner (Reckless Abandon): 3 (0-1-1)

Al Quoz Sprint winner (Shea Shea): 9 (0-0-1)

Previous season's Cornwallis Stakes winner (Bungle In thejungle): 500 (0-0-3)

Dubai Duty Free Handicap winner (Heerat): 099 (0-0-3)

SIS Sprint winner (Taajub): 004 (0-0-3)

Betfred TV Conditions Stakes winner (Spirit Quartz): 070 (0-0-3)

Rous Stakes winner (Doc Hay): 0070 (0-0-4)

Dubai World Trophy winner (Swiss Spirit): 0700 (0-0-4)

Prix du Gros Chene winner (Spirit Quartz): 8700 (0-0-4)

4 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in Newmarket Handicap last time, finishing 6111

4 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in Lightning Stakes, finishing 1111

3 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in the Oakleigh Plate, finishing 335

2 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in Patinack Farm Classic, finishing 17

2 of 4 Australian-trained winners ran in Salinger Stakes, finishing 43

3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Du Gros-Chene last time, finishing 422

3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Saint-Georges, finishing 214

3 of 3 British-trained winners ran in previous Abbaye, finishing 306

2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in Temple Stakes, finishing 23

2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in previous season's Wokingham, finishing 30

2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in Palace House Stakes, finishing 19

2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in World Trophy, finishing 53



Trainers

Australian trained: 4-3-15

British trained runners: 3-13-142

Hong Kong trained: 1-2-6

Spanish trained: 1-0-1

French trained runners: 1-0-5

Irish trained runners: 0-2-6

South African trained: 0-0-2

American trained: 0-0-3

Other: 0-0-2

Record of horses trained in Britain & Ireland: 3-15-148

Record of horses trained outside Britain & Ireland: 7-5-36

Australian based trainers (4-3-15) have best record of the foreign trainers winning 4 of last 10.

Robert Cowell (1-0-4) trained Prohibit to win this in 2011 and he is only trainer with an entrant that has won this since 2003.

John Gosden (0-1-1), Roger Charlton (0-1-2), Eddie Lynam (0-1-2) and Danny O’Brien (0-1-2) have all saddled a placed finisher in past 10 years.



Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)

Horses drawn 1 to 8: 3-5-72

Horses drawn 9 to 15: 6-7-58

Horses drawn 16 or higher: 0-6-38

Horses drawn between stalls 10 and 15 have won 6 of last 9 runnings of this at Ascot.



Price

7 of 10 winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter

There has only been one winner priced above 12/1 in past 9 renewals.

Favourites (2-3-12) have won just 2 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 4 to 7 (or a 3yo that won/placed in a group race as a 2yo)

· Bred in Australia, New Zealand or France

· Run 2 to 4 times in 2013 (winning at least once)

· Finished in first 2 last time (posting RPR of 116+)

· Previously won over 5F and 6F

· Won a group race (preferably a group 1)

· Finished in first 4 in Prix de Saint-Georges

· Ran in Prix du Gros-Chene, Temple Stakes or Newmarket H’cap last time

· Trained outside of GB & Ire, especially Australian or Hong Kong based

· Course winner and ran in 2012 Abbaye if trained in GB & Ire

· Drawn in stalls 10 to 15

[ganjaman2]

ST JAMES' PALACE STAKES TRENDS 2013




The St James’s Palace Stakes is one of three group 1 races taking place on day 1 of Royal Ascot, which kicks off on Tuesday 18th June. Run over a mile for 3yos only, it brings together horses that have been running in the different 2000 Guineas races around Europe and winners of the Irish, English & French 2000 Guineas are all entered, however it seems unlikely Dawn Approach will turn up.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

Race for 3yos



Breeding

8 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner (7 of those 8 had won a group 1 over 1M or shorter)



Recent/Past Form

6 of 10 winners won last time out (4 others beaten in French or Irish 2000 Guineas or French Derby)

9 of 10 winners ran in last 30 days

10 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 116+ in one or both of last 2 runs

6 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (4 exceptions had finished in the first 3 in a group 1)

9 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2 (exception placed in a group 1)

8 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo (2 exceptions were 2nd)

8 of 10 winners won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (1 exception didn't run in a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo and other was placed in Dewhurst)

3 of 10 winners had won a group race at Ascot as a 2yo (other 7 were having first course start)



Guineas Form

Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Magician): 07151110 (4-0-8)

English 2000 Guineas winner (Dawn Approach): 45171 (2-0-5)

Highest placed finisher from English 2000 Guineas: 1451512712 (4-2-10)

French 2000 Guineas winner (Style Vendome): 51359 (1-1-5)

Highest placed finisher from French 2000 Guineas winner: 5214359279 (1-3-10)

7 of 10 winners ran in the English 2000 Guineas, finishing 2341531

6 of 10 winners ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas last time out, finishing 021111

2 of 10 winners ran in the French 2000 Guineas, finishing 14

8 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 in Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (1 exception was 4th in French 2000 & other exception bypassed Guineas for French Derby)



Other Races

Dewhurst Stakes winner (Dawn Approach): 71561 (2-0-5)

Coventry Stakes winner (Dawn Approach): 8110 (2-0-4)

Greenham Stakes winner (Olympic Glory): 821 (1-1-3)

National Stakes winner (Dawn Approach): 1 (1-0-1)

Vintage Stakes winner (Olympic Glory): 17 (1-0-2)

Craven Stakes winner (Toronado): 6432 (0-2-4)

Winkfield Stakes winner (Toronado): 2 (0-1-1)

Prix Djebel winner (Style Vendome): 27 (0-1-2)

Prix de Fontainebleau winner (Gengis): 520 (0-1-3)

Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère winner (Olympic Glory): 4347 (0-1-4)

Free Handicap winner (Garswood): 05 (0-0-2)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 4113

3 of 10 winners ran in the Greenham, finishing 221

3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 233

2 of 10 winners ran in the Railway Stakes, finishing 31

2 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 21



Trainers

British trained runners: 6-9-57

Irish trained runners: 4-7-31

French trained runners: 0-3-9

German trained: 0-1-1

Japan trained: 0-0-1

American-trained: 0-0-1

Aidan O’Brien (3-7-24) has won 4 of the last 11 runnings of this race (including 3 of the last 6). His first string has a record since 2003 of 3-4-10.

Richard Hannon (1-1-6) and Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-4) are the only other 2 trainers with an entry this season to have won the race in the past decade.

Nicolas Clement (0-1-1), Marco Botti (0-1-1) and Mikel Delzangles (0-1-3) have all had one placed finisher since 2003.



Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)

Horses drawn 1 to 3: 3-3-27

Horses drawn 4 to 6: 4-3-27

Horses drawn 7 or higher: 2-12-38

No strong trends on the draw.



Price

10 of 10 winners were priced 9/1 or below

This has not been a race for upsets in the past 10 years with the winner coming from the first 4 in the betting in each of last 10 years and no winner going off bigger than 9/1.

Favourites (6-1-11) have won 6 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 2.33.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Sired by a group 1 winner over 6F to 1M

· Won first time out & won a group race as a 2yo (or placed in a group 1)

· First 3 in Prix Morny, Coventry, Dewhurst and/or Railway as 2yo

· Ran in the past 30 days

· Won last time out (or beaten in a Classic)

· Posted an RPR of 116+ on one or both of last 2 starts

· Group 1 or 2 winner (finished in first 3 in a group 1)

· Finished in the first 2 in Irish, French and/or English 2000 Guineas

· Finished in first 2 in Greenham Stakes

· Ran in Irish 2000 Guineas or a French Classic last time out

· Trained by Aidan O’Brien

· Priced 9/1 or below (favourite does well)