my thoughts and bets for day 2 at royal ascot
2:30 JERSEY STAKES
Usually a race for up-and-coming three-year-olds rather than Group-race winners but last year’s winner had finished second in the Irish 1000 Guineas on her previous start and, 12 months earlier, a previous Group race winner under a penalty came out on top in the shape of Strong Suit, the first to do so for 25 years. Group race winners up against it trying to defy a penalty this year are Blaine who has run two poor races since winning the Gimcrack, Pearl Flute who was only 14th in the French 2000 Guineas before causing a 27/1 surprise in a Group 3 at Longchamp on soft ground but showed a smart turn of foot and Tawhid who only runs if the ground doesn’t turn soft who won the Horris Hill Stakes on heavy ground but was last of four in the Craven. History is against that trio big time. Listed race winners are unpenalised however and have a good record and have been successful four times in the last eight years. Listed race winners are Garswood, Gale Force Ten, Montiridge, Mutin, Ninjago, The Brothers War and Well Acquainted.
It is not uncommon that horses which failed to stay a mile in either of a version of any 2000 Guineas drop back in trip to win here four have successfully done so in the last 19 years plus Ishvana was second in the Irish 1000 Guineas before taking this prize. The pair that head the market both ran in a Guineas as Gale Force Ten was a never-nearer second to Magician in the Irish 2000 Guineas having previously been beaten less than a length into fourth in the French 2000 Guineas where a blanket covered most of the field and Garswood could never get in the 2000 Guineas where he finished seventh (with Don’t Bother Me back in tenth) having won the European Free Handicap in some style on his previous start. The Irish 2000 Guineas was a funny race with Trading Leather (third and won since) going one hell of a gallop so little got in it and it could just be Gale Force Ten, who ran through beaten horses from the rear, picked up the pieces for second, in which case then 7/2 would be short enough in a 21-runner contest here. He clearly stays a mile well though so a drop to 7f isn’t sure to suit whereas I feel Garswood would be much more back at home returning to 7f so I prefer him of the two market leaders.
By far the best recent guide has been the King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket with Jeremy and Tariq following up their successes in that Listed race here in 2006 and 2007. In fact, during the last 13 years, two more Jersey Stakes winners in Membership and Observatory also finished second in that Listed race immediately prior to winning here plus horses to finish in the first two in the last three runnings of that King Charles II Stakes have gone on to place here. This season’s King Charles II Stakes 1-2-3-4 were Dundonnell, Music Master, Baltic Knight and Well Acquainted. The winner and third don’t run but Mister Music takes his chance as does Well Acquainted having since won a Listed race at Epsom.
Regards last-time-out maiden winners, they endured a terrible run after Zilzal won in 1989 not winning again since Aqlaam in 2008 but Rainfall made it two wins in the last four years for horses with such a profile so they are no longer on the ‘get shot of’ list. Ian’s Dream is the only horse with such a profile this season when he broke his maiden tag at the fifth time of asking last time out (best run as a two-year was at this meeting in the Norfolk Stakes when beaten 1½ lengths by Reckless Abandon) and he is trained by Jeremy Noseda whose Proclamation won in 2005 following on from Just James in 2002 and he has had three others placed, two of which at big prices since the first of those victories.
Of the last 14 winners, eight won on their most recent outing. Last time out winners are Pearl Flute, Ajraam, Ian’s Dream, Montiridge, Well Aquainted and the Jean-Claude Rouget trained pair of Mutin (looks the stable pick with Soumillion riding and is unbeaten in four starts) and The Brothers Way (though Peslier isn’t bad booking ether!). The French don’t really target this race so don’t be put off by their lack of success. Frankie Dettori rides another French challenger in Complimentor but his form would not be as strong as that of the other three which also includes Pearl Flute (Jamie Spencer rides as Qatar Racing Limited owned).
SHORT LIST
Garswood
Montiridge
Mutin
Music Master
CONCLUSION
Wow this is a competitive Group 3 race which has the added and unusual spice of four French-trained contenders this season and I would prefer to ally myself to unpenalised Listed race winners in the main like four of the last eight victors. That basically means those towards the head of the market but I am happy enough to leave out Gale Force Ten on pure value grounds as 7/2 looks tight enough for me for a horse I am unconvinced will improve for dropping back to 7f and could have been a little bit flattered in the Irish 2000 Guineas running into second from the rear off a mad man’s gallop. Garswood and Montiridge appeal most of the British contenders.
GARSWOOD’s chance is obvious as he was impressive over this trip in the Free Handicap (a handicap but still a Listed race) but couldn’t get into a furiously-run 2000 Guineas and looks like he will enjoy dropping back a furlong and Tony Hamilton’s services have been replaced by those of Pat Smullen’s. Recent reports that this is the best horse Richard Fahey thinks he has ever trained (and they came after his 2000 Guineas disappointment) can only increase hopes he can return to winning ways.
MONTIRIDGE represents Richard Hannon who won this race twice in 1990s and there was plenty to like about his success at Sandown last time over a mile. Dropping back 1f gives slight cause for concern as Sandown’s is a stiff mile but he strung them out easily making all so a positive ride over this shorter trip makes him an obvious contender. MUTIN is 4-4 and looks the trainer’s number one hope over fellow Listed race last-time-out winner, The Brothers War. His last two wins have been on heavy ground and his last three wins over a mile so dropping back to 7f is also a slight niggle with him.
He races in the colours of Hamdan al Maktoum but Christophe Soumillon keeps the ride with Paul Hanagan aboard the also-unbeaten Ajraam for Charles Hills. I wouldn’t like to say for certain but I expect the Hanagan arrangement for Hamdan horses is for British-trained horses so I wouldn’t read much into that if anything at all. I will also throw MUSIC MASTER into the mix as his second place in the best historical guide, the King Charles II Stakes, reads well with the form working out and that was just his third career start so more improvement is likely (and necessary) and he looks best of the 20/1+ shots for each-way purposes.
That said, Ninjago’s turn of foot when successful here earlier in the season really impressed me but he has been beaten since when third at Evens in a Newbury Listed race and Hughes prefers Montiridge. Back to Ascot though, I can see returning to form under Jimmy Fortune and outrun odds of around 33/1.
3.05 DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES
Known as the Windsor Forest Stakes up until this season’s change of identity, this Group 2 affair for older fillies and mares over the straight mile has been run on nine occasions having previously been a Listed race at the September Meeting but some strong patterns have emerged since its upgrade. Sadly there are no Group 1 winners running under a penalty to take on but Duntle has escaped that penalty as she won the Group 1 Matron Stakes last season only to be disqualified so she is running off a 5lbs lower mark than would have been the case had she kept the race in the stewards’ room.
The best guide has been the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom won this season by Thistle Bird. Somewhat oddly, however, the three recent winners to emerge from that race were all beaten at Epsom whereas three of the six winners of that Group 3 event to run here went on to be placed. That said, I think it is asking a lot of Beatrice Aurore, who finished last of nine, to turn that form around and go and win no matter how much she may have need the run. Thistle Bird, however, is a model of consistency and has won her only start at Ascot so I find it hard not seeing her run her race and finish on the premises and has a similar form chance to the better-fancied (according to the market) Chigun as she only a neck adrift of her last autumn.
The Group 3 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket won by Dank by a short-head from Chigun with Thistle Bird back in third is also worthy of considerable respect as the last four winners to run in the Windsor Forest Stakes have produced a winner and two seconds. Like all of Roger Charlton’s horses at the time, Thistle Bird needed the run so don’t take her running at face value. Dank just nailed Chigun on the line reversing form with the runner-up and second from the autumn and is 3lbs better off with Chigun who has since won a Group 3 with ease at The Curragh and has been supplemented to take her chance. Dank was strongest at the finish in that 1m1f race suggesting maybe a raise to 1m2f would be more in her favour than a drop to this albeit stiff mile though.
Of the eight winners when this race was run at Ascot (the 2005 running was at York), four had previously recorded a victory at the course and another two had been placed at the previous year’s Royal Meeting so quality course form is certainly a bonus. Duntle, Dank and Chigun are all course and distance winners (the first-named at Royal Ascot last year) and Thistle Bird and Intense Pink have also won at Ascot over another trip. Sir Michael Stoute won the first two runnings and then added a third success with Strawberrydaquiri in 2010 in addition to supplying three other second-place finishes so this is a race he targets and his Dank will be a leading player after her Dahlia Stakes success.
Four-year-olds have had the best of it leading their older rivals 7-2 but they have held a numerical advantage making up approximately three-quarters of the total runners so don’t read too much into the fact. Peeress was a surprise 14/1 winner eight years ago when the meeting was switched to York but the Ascot runnings have pretty much gone to form with the favourite or second-favourite winning five of the eight renewals, positions in the market currently held by Duntle and Chigun with Dank a close-up third-favourite.
The French are not to be underestimated having supplied the winner five years ago plus the second and third the previous year and Alain De Royer-Dupre sends over Sarkiyla. It was Royer-Dupre that successfully raided the prize five years ago with Sabana Perdida so we have to take this challenge seriously despite a lack of a victory for Sarkiyla in her last five starts. That said, she is a consistent filly and her fourth to the top class Soft Falling Rain on her synthetics debut and first run in five starts reads well and she has since only narrowly been beaten by Don Bosco in a Group 2 and now returns to taking on fellow fillies and mares again.
SHORT LIST
DUNTLE
DANK
THISTLE BIRD
CONCLUSION
I fancy DUNTLE to give one of the two market leaders another win in this race. The winner of last season’s Sandringham Handicap at this meeting, she has gone from strength to strength since passing the post in front on her next three starts but was controversially disqualified on one of those occasions when finishing ahead of Chachamaidee in the Group 1 Matron Stakes. That DQ however means she is effectively a Group 1 winner that is not saddled with a 5lbs Group 1 penalty.
She was expected to need her seasonal debut but proved too good anyway for her rivals (though at 8/13 she was a class above them) and David Wachman has a good Royal Ascot record from his few runners at the meeting. Trends followers will be keener on DANK attempting to give Sir Michael Stoute a fourth win in this race in just ten years especially having won one of the main two guides.
The niggle for me is dropping down 1f and she only just got up on the line over 1m1f last time from Chigun though the probability is that she needed the run. Back in third was THISTLE BIRD who certainly needed the run and has since won the best guide to this race in its short existence so far. At a top price of 13/2 she has a real good each-way bet look about her having also won her only start at Ascot and her general consistency. Sarkiyla deserves respect on connections alone but no wins in her last five starts suggest that she will come up short again at this level against fillies primed for this day.
In summary, Duntle appeals as the most likely winner but if 5/2 isn’t for you then Thistle Bird appeals as the each-way alternative and, if you love trends, then Dank is your filly
3:45 PRINCE OF WALES’S STAKES
Since this race was upgraded to Group 1 status in 2000, few races in the world can match its Roll Of Honour so let’s only look to absolute top notchers. Just one of the 13 winners since the upgrade had failed to win a Group 1 beforehand (Byword) so purely concentrate on such runners which are the front four in the market; Al Kazeem (Tattersalls Gold Cup), Camelot (Racing Post Trophy, 2000 Guineas, Derby, Irish Derby), Maxios (Prix D’Ispahan), The Fugue (Nassau) and Red Cadeaux (Hong Kong Vase).
The front four in the market has certainly been the way to go down the years striking on 23 occasions in the last 26 years which is another reason why we shouldn’t be looking too far away from the obvious and, even more significantly, since its promotion to a Grade 1 contest, all 13 winners started at no bigger than 8/1.
It will be interesting to see if the public money comes for Camelot being last season’s Derby winner but he was beaten fair and square by Al Kazeem in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, a race that has fared well of late with its last six winners to take their chance here notching up three wins, two seconds and a third. Camelot was sent off at 4/11 to defeat Al Kazeem on that occasion but with Roger Charlton’s improving five-year-old winning by a cosy 1½ lengths, that only strengthened the view that despite all the hype about him being the best Ballydoyle have ever trained he was winning poor Classics last season and also strengthened the view that Al Kazeem is going from strength to strength and now beginning to fulfil his potential having been restricted to one run (and impressive win) as a four-year-old. I see no reason at all why Camelot should reverse placings.
The Prix Ganay won by the German-trained Pastorius beating Maxios and Dunaden looked a little below par but is also much respected as the last four winners to take their chance here have recorded two wins, a second and a fourth. There is no Pastorius in today’s line, or Dunaden, but Maxios takes his chance having since added the Prix D’Ispahan over 1m1f where he beat the exposed Planteur by half a length. I think he needs to improve again at the age of five but the French have a very good record of late winning three times in the last seven years courtesy of Manduro, Vision D’Etait and Byword.
The Fugue will be bidding to emulate Rakti in 2004 by winning on her seasonal debut and Ouija Board two years later who was the last successful filly. It will take a career best performance by a good way for her to win here and especially first time out so I have to question a little whether John Gosden has her absolutely cherry ripe or whether this is as good a race as any to start her back with a view to taking on her own sex again in races like the Nassau and Yorkshire Oaks. Many will see her as an each-way play however as this is not the strongest Prince Of Wales’s Stakes that has ever been run.
With regards to recent form, with 11 of the last 16 winning so don’t go supporting a horse with something to prove regarding current wellbeing.
Godolphin traditionally run their best 1m2f horse in this race but not this year where they are so weak they rely on Saint Baudoino who was runner-up in last season’s French Derby when trained by Andre Fabre but only fourth behind Hunters Light on his only run for Saeed Bin Suroor in a Group 2 in Dubai. just one of the last 15 winners failed to make the first three last time out which is a stat also against Side Glance and Red Cadeaux. Following three wins on the spin between 2000-2002, Godolphin have struggled in this race despite sending out three big guns in the shape of Electrocutionionst, Moon Ballad and Sulamani. Their Rewilding changed all that again two years ago when turning over the long odds-on So You Think two years ago.
The Arlington Million runner-up, Afsare, proved troublesome entering the stalls before his fine run but refused to enter them at all for his proposed seasonal debut so he has temperament questions to answer and I get the feeling Luca Cumani is running him as is desperate to get a run into him before more realistic targets. The globetrotting seven-year-old, Red Cadeaux, will surely find 1m2f too sharp.
SHORT LIST
Al Kazeem
Maxios
CONCLUSION
It is hard to make a good case for anything outside of the first four in the betting and, of the big four, I feel it is asking a lot of a filly to win first time out taking on the boys at this level that also has something to find on pure form so I am happy to let The Fugue go (for win-only purposes) and I take the view is Camelot has been plain over-rated all his career so I am happy to rely on his conqueror at The Curragh, Al Kazeem, and the French raider, Maxios, in a race where French-trained horses have over-performed of late winning three of the last seven runnings. AL KAZEEM has progressed into a proper horse this season and would be my main pick. He has really developed into an imposing-looking specimen who will take the beating in all the Group 1 races over 1m2f this season with the Arc also on his agenda. On official figures Maxios is just his superior but is a 2½ times a bigger price. To be honest, I am more interested in his Prix Ganay second to the high class Pastorius two starts back than his subsequent defeat of Planteur in the Prix D’Ispahan and he has left his previous form behind as a five-year-old this campaign, so like Al Kazeem, he is a late flourisher. A solid form-based case can easily be argued for Maxios at a top price of 11/2 if you don’t fancy the 2/1 about Al Kazeem.
4:25 ROYAL HUNT CUP
Four and five-year-olds make up the lion’s share of runners (usually around 75% but more last year) but given they have won 24 of the last 27 runnings, they are still over-performing by quite a margin so I am more than happy to overlook any horse aged six and upwards as my first starting point so Sweet Lightning, Premio Loco, Don’t Call Me, Navajo Chief, Saintefisio, Prince Of Johanne, Directorship, Field Of Dream, Excellent Guest, Global Village, Toto Skyllachy, Spa’s Dancer and Moran Gra are not for me. Admittedly, that line of thinking cost me last year as Prince Of Johanne took the honours at the age of six when winning from stall 33 (the closest to the stands’ rail). With regards to the draw, what happens earlier in the week is usually the best guide with regards to the straight course.
It would appear, however, that a draw close to either rail is an advantage as 11 of the last 16 winners were drawn no more than six places away from a rail.Prince Of Johanne did, however, become the eleventh winner in the last 14 years to have won or finished second earlier in the campaign which is a stat against the likes of Premio Loco, Sandagyr, David Livingston, Fury, Santefisio, Burwaaz, Fire Ship, Field Of Dream, Arsaadi, Redact and Moran Gra. There are also three seasonal debutants and, to be honest, I gave up looking back how far the last time one of those won the Hunt Cup as it was so long so it will take some training effort if the Trade Commissioner or Winter’s Night can win.
Heaven only knows, however, if the Japanese-trained Elusive Time has been thrown in or not by the British Handicapper on his seasonal debut as he must be taking a guess of sorts especially as he has won his last four races so might keep more back than we know, in which case, a lack of a run for 283 days may not be so difficult to overcome if the Handicapper has got it plain wrong.
Previous straight-course form at Ascot has proved to be an important factor in recent times (and particularly so in Ascot straight-course races in general since the track was relayed in 2005) and no race more so than the Victoria Cup. This valuable 7f handicap in its own right has provided an ideal springboard for seven of the last 18 Hunt Cup winners and was won by last season’s Hunt Cup runner-up, Excellent Guest, but the weights stats are largely irrelevant these days.
Invisible Man overcame many patterns to spring a 28/1 surprise aided by his first-time blinkers three years ago but the Royal Hunt Cup is one of the more punter-friendly big handicaps of the season as exactly 50% of the runnings since 1994 have gone the way of a horse in the first four in the betting. No mean feat given that around 30 runners face the starter.
SHORT LIST
Two For Two
Stirring Ballad
Elusive Time
Educate
Field Of Dream
CONCLUSION
We’ll start with the obvious as STIRRING BALLAD heads the market for Andrew Balding and Richard Hughes from her low draw. Unlucky not to win a Listed race at Goodwood last time where she had to sit and suffer for a while in the race won by Burke’s Rock, she also gives the impression that a race run at an end-to-end gallop, unlike that smallish-field affair at Goodwood , will be right up her street. Of those drawn in highest six stalls, TWO FOR TWO makes most appeal for the David O’Meara stable chasing what would be I am sure the first of many Royal Ascot winners in years to come. A close up fourth in a Listed handicap at York on his latest start at the Dante Meeting, he stayed on well towards the finish suggesting that this stiffer mile would be more in his favour. Trained in France last season, he was snapped up for just 11,000 euros and has caught the eye on all four starts for O’Meara since including a win at Ripon to the extent that he is now a 100-rated horse demonstrating his handler’s superb talents. It’s a flier I grant you but I am going to chance ELUSIVE DREAM in the shortlist simply because I have no idea how well handicapped he could be so 33/1 has to be worth a small dabble on that basis alone and he is not travelling over from Japan for nothing. I do like following Japanese horses in Europe anyway so I am also swayed by that and regardless of where a horse is racing, to have won 13 of your 21 career starts tells us the horse has more than its share of willing attitude. EDUCATE is another contender with an impressive strike rate winning half of his ten starts including four of his last five. Jamie Spencer is unbeaten on him in two starts and rides again and we all know how good he can be on the straight course at Ascot in big fields when he times it right. His latest win was beating Sheikhzayeroad who has since won a hot handicap on Derby Day so he could easily still be ahead of the Handicapper. The last shortlisted contender despite some average form figures this season is FIELD OF DREAM as he loves Ascot. Fourth in this race last season beaten 1½ lengths (he is off only a 1lb higher mark this year) and then he won the big 7f here on King George day. If Jamie Osborne has been keen to get his handicap mark down this season for these two big handicaps again, he has succeeded but he has been shaping okay in some of his races this season and I expect Ascot to set him alight again so he makes some each-way appeal at 33/1.
5:00 QUEEN MARY STAKES
As many as 24 fillies have been declared for the Queen Mary Stakes. Maqaasid won three years ago off the back of winning her only start but the previous seven winners plus the two subsequent winners had all ran at least twice beforehand in contrast to the Coventry Stakes where nine winners in the last 20 years had won their only start so experience has counted. On that basis, I would rather be against the once-raced contenders; Fast, Baytown Kestrel, Kaiulani, Fire Blaze and Reroute even if they did win their sole start.
Up until 2006 it was a case of follow the unbeaten fillies as six on the spin had proven successful but five of the subsequent seven winners had tasted defeat earlier in the season including last year’s surprise 20/1 winner Ceiling Kitty. Perhaps with the emergence of the Albany Stakes, that 6f race is taking away some of the real class fillies that would have otherwise been aimed here? Entering the race unbeaten or otherwise, what is crucial however is a last-time-out victory which has been the case for 12 of the last 13 winners so I can’ back back Blith Spirit, Corncockle, Diamond Lady, Fig Roll, Go Glamourous, Lorimer’s Lot, Oriel, Quatuor, Robynelle or Sweet Emma Rose.
The Hilary Needler Trophy at Beverley has lost its way as a Queen Mary guide since Attraction won what was then a Listed race (demoted to a conditions race these days) ten years ago and the National Stakes (Listed) at Sandown, a race in which fillies traditionally fare well and was won by another filly in Rizeena this season, was a terrific guide in the 1990s with five Queen Mary Stakes winners contesting that event but it has gone mighty quiet since then. However, the Marygate Stakes (Listed) at York’s Dante Meeting won in very taking fashion by the well-backed Beldale Memory (had Quatuor and Blith Spirit back in fifth and sixth) has been the best recent guide with Gilded (2006) and Ceiling Kitty (2012) completing the double and two more Marygate winners finished second and third in between.
Richard Hannon was winning his fifth Queen Mary two years ago when Best Terms emerged on top so clearly his ammunition has to be respected and he saddles Oriel, Fast, Fig Roll and Corncockle. Jockey bookings suggest Oriel is the pick and Hughes will be keen to put right the pig’s ear he made of her last run when failing to get a run in a five-runner race at Newbury have been sent off at odds-on when trying to teach her how to race. I think it is significant he rides her and not Fast who looked well named when she scooted up at Chepstow but just one run worries me about her chance. Mick Channon’s record with juveniles at Royal Ascot passes the closest scrutiny and he has won the Queen Mary with Bint Allayl (1998), Queen’s Logic (2001) and Flashy Wings (2005) and all three went on to win the Lowther Stakes and end up the season’s champion two-year-old filly.
In fact, his last 12 runners have produced three winners a second, third and fourth. This season he relies on Kaiulani who won well on her only start at Leicester but I do prefer more experience for a race like this. The Irish were responsible for the winner and third in 2007, the runner-up in 2010 in addition to the 2004 winner so have a decent record and Aidan O’Brien’s Bye Bye Birdie is their sole runner. She got off the mark at the third time of asking just three days ago so this looks like an afterthought. Wesley Ward sent Jealous Again over in 2009 for a famous win for America and he runs Sweet Emma Rose. Being drawn 1 might have been a problem for other horses but if she is just going to blast it then it may not be a problem for her but she does have to bounce back from finishing fourth of six at odds of 2/5 last time and the stable seem keener on their other two-year-olds this week.
SHORT LIST
Beldale Memory
Rizeena
Survived
CONCLUSION
In a nutshell, I want a last-time-out winner with more experience than just one start for a race with so many runners where they will blast it from start to finish of which there are nine qualifiers but Beldale Memory and Rizeena stand out having both won Listed races last time out in some style. The Clive Cox-trained BELDALE MEMORY won the Marygate Stakes which has been the best guide of late and was very well backed all morning to do so. It was the professional manner of her victory that impressed most and the fact that even this early in her career she was ridden like an older horse rather than a precocious type in that a race can be ridden in her rather than just using pure speed was notable. As much as I like Rizeena, I do think Beldale Memory is the correct favourite but which is the better value is trickier as Clive Brittain’s filly is twice the price at 7/1.
RIZEENA won the other notable Queen Mary guide down the years beating the boys in the National Stakes where I loved the way she stretched in the final furlong. That suggested she would be even better at 6f but this stiff 5f is fine as she showed when beating Oriel comfortably here in May (though Oriel was having her debut unlike Rizeena and Hughes was easy on Oriel when beaten) but I do get the feeling she would be in the Albany Stakes if Sandiva was not laying in wait for her there. Brittain is convinced Rizeena is as good as her 1000 Guineas and Irish 1000 Guineas winners, Sayyedati and Crimplene, (though he stopped short of Pebbles thank goodness) and although he tilts at windmills plenty, he is usually right when he says he has a very good one.
SURVIVED is also a last-time-out winner doing the job nicely at Lingfield improving for her debut experience. She will need to step up on that level of form but is entitled to take her chance and I prefer her most of the other seven last-time-out winners with more than one run to their name. Bye Bye Birdie’s form gives her a place chance, even in her defeats, but winning a Royal Ascot 2yo race three days ago is not the kind of profile that appeals to me. In summary, I do like the pair that head the market here and couldn’t put anyone off dutching stakes between Beldale Memory and Rizeena.
5:35 SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP
This Listed handicap for three-year-old fillies has attracted a huge field of 26 this year so the best of luck. However, only two of the last 18 winners could not be found in the front half-dozen in the market and winning form earlier in the season has been a factor with 13 of the last 17 winners visiting the Winner’s Enclosure at some point and one of those not to score earlier in the campaign was having her seasonal debut so that looks like a combination to look at closely. The market currently has Woodland Aria favourite over Mango Diva, Hint Of A Tint, Zurigha, Bracing Breeze and Fleeting Smile (though it is tight after the front two and any of another half dozen could be supported into a top-six market position) of which Hint Of A Tint and Bracing Breeze have not won this season.
It has been part of Royal Ascot since 2002 but isn’t that strong a stats race though it is a good idea to look at later developers as ten winners since 1995 started the season as a maiden. Last-time-out maiden winners should be treated with some scepticism with the last such winner being back in 2000. Stresa is the only last-time-out maiden winner in this year’s line up.
Nine of the last 17 winners struck last time out but not the last three winners however though Timepiece (2010) can be forgiven as she was previously seen finishing in mid-division in the Oaks. The Nell Gwyn Stakes has been a good guide as three fairly recent winners ran creditably in that 1000 Guineas trial where they finished between third and fifth. Waterway Run finished fifth this season in what was a very warm running behind Hot Snap and Sky Lantern where she had Sorella Bella back in ninth and Nargys was last of 14. Waterway Run then ran a highly creditable sixth in the French 1000 Guineas.
Like so many handicaps at the Royal Meeting, John Gosden figures prominently and six of his last 13 runners made the frame (Cask justified co-favouritism for him in 1995) and he runs the likely favourite, Woodland Aria, in addition to Trapeze and Stresa.
SHORT LIST
Mango Diva
Woodland Aria
Auction
Waterway Run
CONCLUSION
With fillies in the top six in the betting faring so well and being trained by John Gosden and also a last-time-out winner then WOODLAND ARIA ticks a lot of boxes so it is a question of whether around 5/1 floats your boat or not in a 26-runner fillies’ handicap. She made a big move 3f out in the Musidora Stakes on her second start before not staying 1m2f and won snugly at odds-on at Leicester next time when dropping down to a mile and she has to be open to plenty more improvement on just her fourth start.
That same last comment also applies to the Sir Michael Stoute-trained MANGO DIVA though, unlike Woodland Aria, she did see a racecourse as a two-year-old. Successful in a maiden on her seasonal return beating Stresa, that proved to be an easier task than when second to Hot Snap on her debut so no disgrace there and she then may have bumped into another very smart sort taking on the boys when second to the Jersey Stakes fancy, Montiridge, in a Listed race next time out. At around twice the price of Woodland Aria she looks better value.
Richard Hannon’s pair of Zurigha and Fleeting Style are also worthy of respect. Hughes rides Zurigha but as Fleeting Style is owned by Paul Hanagan’s retained owner, nothing should be read into that. However, I do like the angle of being a maiden at the start of the season of which neither were so the bottom weight AUCTION makes appeal who could sneak into a top-six market position. She has won all three starts this season after three defeats in maidens last year (two of were won by Oaks runners) and is trained by Ed Dunlop who has the midas touch with fillies and has won this race twice before.
Although WATERWAY RUN doesn’t fit the maiden-last-season profile I like the fact she was fifth in a hot Nell Gwynn and three other top-five finishers in that race have gone on to win this race fairly recently and she then ran another fine race when beaten 5 ½ lengths in the French 1000 Guineas. It is also fair to say after his Oaks 1-2 that Ralph Beckett is also a dab hand with fillies and would have a better line than most this season.
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Originally Posted by evilsatan
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