my thoughts and bets for day 3 at royal ascot
2:30 NORFOLK STAKES
After the Coventry Stakes, the Norfolk Stakes is the best two-year-old race at Royal Ascot for punters to get really stuck into with seven of the last ten runnings going the way of the favourite or second-favourite. Coach House looks set to go off the clear favourite but it is close for second-favouritism between Coulsty, No Nay Never and Saayeer. All four were last-time-out winners and it would take an exceptional set of circumstances for trends followers to nail their mast to a horse beaten last time out as there have only been two such Norfolk Stakes winners since 1991. That’s a big statistic for Ifwecan, Oriental Relation and Royal Mezyan to overcome whereas Extreme Supreme is having his racecourse debut.
To cut the parameters further, I suggest concentrating on horses yet to taste defeat as 13 of the last 19 winners had perfect records (Coach House was beaten on his debut before winning his next two starts) entering the race and five of the last seven winners, including Reckless Abandon last year, arrived here with the profile of one run and one win. Of the four at the head of the market, Coulsty and No Nay Never fit that latter profile of being 1-1 as do Eccleston and Emirates Flyer. All four winners since 1997 that had run more than twice were beaten first time out so that could be argued to offset the fact that Coach House is not unbeaten as this will be his fourth start.
This 5f Group 3 contest is very much for precocious types and very few winners have made a serious impact the following season. Of winners since 1997, just three had previously been tried at further than five furlongs so that would be against Ambiance, Ifwecan and Legend Rising. No surprise therefore that the recent Roll of Honour of winning sires is packed with sprinters including Johannesburg who himself won this race in 2001 and as many as 14 of the last 17 winners were by stallions with a Sire Index of no bigger than 8.3 furlongs. More significantly, however, is that eight of those 17 winners were produce of stallions with a Sire Index of less than7fas there aren’t too many of them. Saayeer is by Acclamation whose Sire Index is 6.9f.Windsorform has also come to the fore in recent seasons with five of the last 11 winners either winning or finishing second at the riverside track and that is where Saayeer (the only qualifier on that score in this race) won the second of his two starts. He was workmanlike that day given he started odds-on but William Haggas commented at a Preview Night I attended last week that he is better than that and made him his banker of the week. Eccleston and Emirates Flyer are also by by Acclamation whereas Ambiance, Green Door, Ifwecan and Extreme Supreme are also by stallions with a Sire Index of less than 7f.
We can never discount Richard Hannon who has secured victories with Niche (1992), Lucky Lionel (1995) and Baron’s Pit (2002) in addition to saddling two runners-up going back to 1994. This year he runs Coulsty with Richard Hughes in the plate who made an impressive sole start when winning by five lengths at Leicester under Ryan Moore who now rides his stablemate, Legend Rising, who was beaten on debut but then won his next two races but he has twice raced over 6f which would suggest this 5f against better horses on ground on the fast side of Good could find him out. However, from far fewer runners (just eight), Mark Johnston has won the Norfolk Stakes with Russian Valour (2003) and also supplied two seconds on the last five occasions where he has saddled a runner and he runs Ifwecan who also drops back in distance having finished fourth in the Woodcote Stakes over 6f which should suggest he is exposed as not fast enough. That said, Approve won the Norfolk Stakes at 16/1 three years ago having also finished fourth in the Woodcote.
The fascinating contender is the Wesley Ward-trained No Nay Never who sent two juveniles over to scorch the Ascot turf four years, both making all, and especially off the back of comments that he thinks No Nay Never is the best horse he has trained. His all-the-way victory on his only start 55 days ago at Keeneland was impressive and the yard have only brought over horses this year as the forecast was for good weather as fast ground suits their blast-it running style.
SHORT LIST
Saayeer
No Nay Never
Coulsty
CONCLUSION
SAAYEER was more impressive on his debut at Salisbury than when scraping home at Windsor but his shrewd trainer, who nominates him as his best chance of the week, feels he was not at his best that day and we can see the real Saayeer here and he fits a lot of patterns being unbeaten, by a sire with a Sire Index of under 7f, a Windsor winner and who could possibly start in the first two in the betting. It is likely that NO NAY NEVER from stall 8 will try and make all and Saayeer could get the ideal sit in his slipstream next door in stall 9. I have to also include the American speedball in the shortlist being unbeaten and off remarks his trainer feels he is the best horse he has trained and he has already bagged two Royal Ascot races. His all-the-way win on his only start was undeniably impressive and there has to be a chance he may not see another horse if he is as good as his trainer thinks and the ground continues to dry up. If it rains however, confidence in him from myself and connections would start to evaporate so he is on the shortlist on the provisio of ground faster than Good. As much as I loved the manner in which Coach House won last time out and the yard had a 1-2 in the Coventry Stakes, I have outlined on trends that I want to stick with unbeaten horses plus 5/2 is short enough in a hot-looking renewal so COULSTY receives the final shortlist berth attempt to give Richard Hannon his fourth Norfolk Stakes winner. To win as well as he did on debut by five lengths is testament to his ability as it is fairly well known that the stable’s two-year-olds improve for an outing. The 1-2-3 in the Coventry Stakes entered the race having won their only start and if Coulsty can do likewise here then he will become the sixth winner in the last eight runnings to win with the same profile.
3:05 RIBBLESDALE STAKES
Not a massively strong trends race and it generally pays to look to a later-developing improver as just five winners in the last 18 years had been contesting Group races as juveniles so the Ribblesdale boasts a very similar pattern to the colts’ equivalent of this race at the Royal Meeting, the King Edward VII Stakes, in that respect. Fillies that were contesting Group races last season were Cocktail Queen and Indigo Lady and they look up against it as other progress beyond them.
Winning form this season is a big bonus as 12 of the last 14 winners had won either of their last two starts which is against Cocktail Queen, Hollowina and Indigo Lady plus The Lark and Gertrude Versed but as the latter-named pair ran in the Oaks then it would be a harsh punter not to forgiven them that. More notable I believe is that the last five winners had won at Group or Listed level unlike the three previous winners so a notable u-turn there. Over a longer period of time, 11 of the last 19 winners had previously won a Group or Listed race. Qualifiers on that score are Alive Alive Oh who was super impressive winning a Listed race by six lengths last time out at Naas, Elik (Height Of Fashion Stakes – formerly the Lupe) though she was breaking her maiden tag at the fifth attempt that day, Just Pretending (Irish 1000 Guineas Trial) before going on to be beaten 1¾ lengths by Just The Judge in the Classic itself so the extra half-mile is clearly the doubt here, and Winsili (Swettenham Stud Oaks Trial) where she had The Lark back in third who then progressed to finish third in the Oaks franking that form.
With regards to the Oaks as a guide in which The Lark finished third and Gertrude Versed was back in eighth, there have been five winners since 1997 (three of which finished in the first four) though only two of those came in the last decade but to bounce back 20 days after that Classic has been a deal easier to achieve in the Ribblesdale than Derby runners contesting the King Edward VII Stakes. My feeling is that The Lark may need more than 20 days from which to recover as this season’s Oaks was run at a brutal pace and she does appear to prefer a cut in the ground which unless it rains she will not to get. A week ago Michael Bell said she was an unlikely runner so I have to question whether the temptation of having a serious form-based Royal Ascot contender has taken over in connections’ thoughts. Three winners in the last ten years won a maiden last time out (Wailah, Reposte and Fersah enter the race with that profile this time) which is a more than fair return.
The last two winners were both trained in Ireland (as have 4 of the last 11) and won a Group 3 race on their previous start. This year’s Irish duo of Alive Alive Oh (Tommy Stack) and Just Pretending (Aidan O’Brien) have obvious form claims and enter the race off the back of a wide-margin Listed race success and a placed effort in a Classic. It should be pointed out that Aidan O’Brien has an awful Ribblesdale record with no winners from 12 winners and just one second-place finisher. Combine that with Just Pretending moving up half a mile in trip and I can’t be having her.
With a winner and four seconds (The Fugue being the latest 12 months ago) in the last nine years, we have to respect John Gosden’s challenge consisting of Winsili and Gertrude Versed. Winsili looks the pick on potential having won an Oaks trial well at Newbury but gave Epsom a miss but she had the Oaks third back in third. Clearly The Lark improved a bundle for her run in that trial but there was a lot to like about the way Winsili put the race to bed wearing a hood for the first time demonstrating a good turn of foot in a tactical affair. She is no certainty to stay a strongly-run 1m4f on pedigree though and that is the niggle if they go a real good gallop. Sir Michael Stoute runs Elik and Waila but he should also be faring a whole lot better and has been responsible for four losing favourites from his last 17 runners.
SHORT LIST
Alive Alive Oh
Winsili
Fersah
CONCLUSION
With the fastish ground and a hard run in the Oaks two factors The Lark (second favourite) has to overcome, I think that at 11/4 that ALIVE ALIVE OH is one of the win bets of the meeting to give the Irish their third Ribblesdale on the spin. Not so much because of trends, which are weakish for this race, but purely on visuals as her latest success was the most impressive I’ve seen from a three-year-old filly this season this season and I would have been all over her if they had supplemented her for the Oaks. The way she kicked clear was something else so, in theory, faster ground could see her in an even better light but, as that success was achieved on rain-softened ground there are also no concerns if it rains. WINSILI is my idea of the biggest danger as she is also a later-developing filly that demonstrated a turn of foot to win a Listed race last time out having The Lark back in third and has been held back for this race since by John Gosden who has had five of his last nine runners in the race place at worse. My niggle is whether she will stay 1m4f if it is run a fast pace. FERSAH makes some each-way appeal at as big as 25/1 for the William Haggas stable that won the race with Mont Etoile in 2006. Unraced at two, she made an encouraging debut when third here in what I believe will be a hot Ascot maiden before winning at Leicester last time more comfortably than the winning margin suggested. She looks like a galloper who will keep finding that likes to be ridden prominently and I like that in 1m4f races at Ascot, especially in fillies’ races and if there is to be a turn up, I think Fersah is the most likely filly to cause it.
3:45 Gold Cup
History tells us that only exceptional horses over the age of six win the Gold Cup, and stayers don’t get much more exceptional than Yeats who won here as a seven and eight-year-old, so I am happy to treat the four-time Gold Cup winner as an exception to the rule. Prior to Yeats, we have to go back 68 years to find the last winner aged seven or older. The big question regards age therefore this season is whether the nine-year-old and winner of three years ago, Rite Of Passage is also an exceptional horse? Very good, yes, but exceptional? No nine-year-old or older has won in the first ten years of this century or the whole 100 years of the last so he has some serious age trends to overcome as does fellow nine-year-old and dual Cesarewitch winner, Aaim To Prosper. That said, Rite Of Passage is a difficult horse to keep in one piece so he would be far more lightly raced than your average nine-year-old having only had five Flat starts in his career and 12 races in total including in bumpers and over hurdles. Horses aged seven (there are no eight-year-olds this season) would also be unusual winners so I am happy to take on one of the German raiders, Altano, who was last of eight on his only run in a Group 2 (yet to contest a Group 1 but he loves those Group 3s with three such wins) and last season’s Lonsdale Cup and Doncaster Cup winner, Times Up, who beat High Jinx into second both times.
The Irish have won six of the last seven Gold Cups (clearly skewed Yeats’ dominance winning on four occasions) and are strong again this season with Rite Of Passage, Saddlers Rock and Simenon currently the second, third, and fourth favourites behind Estimate. Rite Of Passage is attempting to win back the Gold Cup three years after he last won it which will be some effort (Kayf Tara did it two years later) and it could just be that given his fragility that missing his prep race is a positive as he clearly goes very well fresh having won on Champions Day here last season on his first run in 17 months. Saddlers Rock won last season’s Goodwood Cup after finishing a ¾ length third to Colour Vision in last season’s Gold Cup. After that, however, he lost his form (just one placed effort in his last five starts) but he does stay 2m4f which is crucial and John Oxx is a master trainer and will have been preparing him to peak for this day as he did with Enzeli who won back in 1999. Simenon won twice at Royal Ascot last season, recording easy victories in the Ascot Stakes and Queen Alexandra so there is no question he loves the course and stays every yard and more. I would usually be concerned if he won those two races last year whether he has the class but I don’t think this is a great year for stayers and he only has 8lbs to find with the officially top rated Earl Of Tinsdal and would surely have won the Chester Cup off top weight last time out with a clear passage. Don’t forget Aidan O’Brien’s El Salvador though. He has plenty to find on form but could bridge that gap for stepping up significantly in trip and former 1½ mile horses from Ballydoyle have an exceptional record in the race with four wins for Yeats, a victory for Fame And Glory and Age Of Aquarius was only beaten a neck into second. There are worse 33/1 each-way suggestions than him if his trainer has correctly indentified moving up to out-and-out stamina tests will be the making of him.
Five of the last seven British-trained winners contested the Henry II Stakes won this season by the French-trained mare Gloomy Sunday at 20/1 who does not have a Gold Cup entry which only underlines the lack of quality with British stayers at present. The French enjoyed their first Gold Cup triumph for 28 years when Westerner’s class proved too much for his rivals seven years ago and are represented this year by Francois Doumen’s Yorkshire Cup runner-up, Top Trip (a race that has featured 5 of the last 18 Gold Cup winners), Andre Fabre’s Last Train whose best effort was second beaten a head to Imperial Monarch in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud over 1m4f last season and the Mikel Delzangles-trained Vadamar who beat the following season’s Arc winner, Solemia, as a three-year-old in a Group 2 at Longchamp and then ran quite well in defeat for much of last season but made a successful return as a five-year-old albeit in only a conditions race. I think all three are questionable stayers over 2m4f.
Going back to the Henry II Stakes, there were many disappointments behind Gloomy Sunday notably last season’s Gold Cup winner, Colour Vision, who could only finish seventh one place behind Times Up with Number Theory running a career best in second just in front of Model Pupil. If Colour Vision can bounce back to his best and win, then he would become the seventh of the last 17 returning champions to hold on to his title like Yeats, Sadeem, Drum Taps and Royal Rebel who won back to back Gold Cups in that time whereas Kayf Tara also won it twice but not in successive years. The horse I would take out of the race, however, was High Jinx in fourth who was in need of the run and should improve for this extra 4f. Being James Fanshawe-trained, we know he has been prepared for Royal Ascot and any ease in the ground will help his chance. That Group 3 event at Sandown was downgraded from a Group 2 two years ago despite being the most productive Gold Cup guide in recent years supplying eight of the last 19 winners and, of those eight Gold Cup winners, five were placed at Sandown.
Winning a Group 2 race or higher had been crucial up until two years ago when Rite Of Passage caused a 20/1 upset as the previous ten winners had all previously won at such a level as had the two winners that preceded him. Having only raced four times on the Flat and coming off a third place in a Grade 1 novice hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, I would argue that Rite Of Passage was somewhat of a unusual winner. Those yet to win a Group 1 or Group race are Aaim To Prosper (two Cesarewitch’s), Altano (three Group 3 wins), High Jinx (though he has been second three times in Group 2 and Group 1 company), Number Theory (best effort when second in the Henry II Stakes), Simenon (dual winner at the meeting last year), Biographer (Listed winner), El Salvador (beaten in both tries at Listed company over 1m6f), Last Train (a narrow second in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris last season over 1m4f and a Group 3 winner), Model Pupil (third in Henry II Stakes on first attempt at staying races), Repeater (beaten 2l by Times Up in Doncaster Cup on only run in pattern races) and Estimate (though she has won two Group 3 races here well on her only two starts at Ascot).
Thirteen of the last 18 winners had won earlier in the season which is notable enough not to be overlooked and, as far as the market is concerned, we have endured some surprise winners with six being sent off at 14/1+ in the last 20 years but, more importantly, the last eight winners have been very findable with no winner bigger than 7/1.
SHORT LIST
Simenon
Earl Of Tinsdal
High Jinx
CONCLUSION
There are reasons to take on most horses in this year’s race so I will have to be a little creative with the trends for the shortlist but although first time out could be the time to catch Rite Of Passage, I can’t back a nine-year-old given no one in this country is still alive the last time we witnessed one of those (who knows about some unknown village in the hills of Indonesia) and I don’t like the fact that Saddlers Rock has not run up to form since last season’s Goodwood Cup. Of the Irish who have a phenomenal record of late, I therefore prefer SIMENON despite his lack of Group 1 or Group 2 success but he has yet to be given a chance to win at such a level so that is not his fault. Having bolted up at this meeting twice last year including over 2m6f, we know he will definitely stay unlike many of his rivals and he loves the place. I am just not sure Estimate is good enough (she has tried Group 2 company in a fillies-only race and was beaten last autumn) and 4/1 strikes me as being on the short side for a four-year-old filly taking on fully established and battle-hardened older horses. I sneaked the comment in earlier that the German-trained EARL OF TINSDAL is officially the top rated horse in the race on 116 which may come as a surprise to many as I suspect most punters have not even heard of him. I must confess neither had I until a month ago. He is also a Group 1 winner and Andreas Wohler has gone local and opted for William Buick. He is 3lbs clear of the confirmed stayers Rite Of Passage and High Jinx plus the French-trained in Top Trip and Last Train who have stamina to prove as does Earl Of Tinsdal having only once ran further than 1m4f and that was on his seasonal return when third to stablemate, Altano, over 1m4f but his trainer expects him to reverse form as he was considered in need of the run. Being German-trained, despite their run of successes lately, I would expect Earl Of Tinsdal to start at inflated odds and especially on the Tote and he makes each-way appeal at 16/1+. HIGH JINX appeals as best of the British after an okay fourth in the Henry II Stakes which has been the best guide and I fancy him to come out best of the five horses that cross swords again here today with that much-needed run his belt. He hasn’t won a Group 1 or Group 2 race but has gone close three times and he will stay which is so important, in fact, his best run was his only start over this 2m4f when second in the Group 1 Prix du Cadran. I am very sceptical about any of the three French-trained horses staying and there also has to be a doubt about the trip for EL SALVADOR but he is 33/1 whereas the French challenge is shorter priced and Aidan O’Brien has successfully indentified Yeats, Fame And Glory and Age Of Aquarius as likely stayers moving up massively in trip so there are grounds for believing that his sole challenge this season is a potential big improver and could grab a place at tasty odds if that is the case.
4:25 BRITANNIA STAKES (Handicap)
Featuring 30 three-year-olds, many of which are unexposed and from top yards, for my money the Britannia Stakes is the most competitive (though not impossible) three-year-old handicap of the season. That said, despite its highly-competitive edge, it has actually been a very good race for favourites with five of the last 14 obliging including last season’s winner, Fast Or Free. In fact, 16 of the last 22 winners could be found in the first half-dozen in the betting which is good going for a race that is trumped up as being a punter’s nightmare. The leading six in the betting at the time of writing are Wentworth, Cape Peron clear of Maputo, Half A Guinea, Sea Shanty and Prophets Pride though that could easily change with so many runners.
The last two winners won a handicap on their previous start which is in stark contrast to the previous nine runnings when beaten horses on their previous start came out on top. On the weight front, the fact that just three of the last 23 winners have carried have carried over 9st should set some alarm bells ringing if you fancy Law Enforcement, Ayaar, Ebn Arab or Cape Peron, though far more horses than otherwise would have been saddled with under 9st of course. It has also paid to overlook horses that failed to notch up a top-four finish last time out as just two winners since 1991 did not adhere to this.
As far as the draw is concerned, like with many major straight-course handicaps, it often pays to look very low or very high as eight of the last 14 winners were drawn no more than four positions off either rail.
SHORT LIST
Wentworth
Maputo
Sea Shanty
Prophet’s Pride
CONCLUSION
WENTWORTH’s eye catching defeat at Goodwood has certainly not been lost on punters or bookmakers being no bigger than 5/1 favourite at the time of writing but, despite 30 runners, this has been a good race for favourites with five of the last 14 winning. Who knows whether he is on the right side of the course drawn 30 of 30 but at least he is next to a rail and very low or very high has been a positive in this race over the last 14 years. Dropped back down from a mile to 6f for his last run, he would have a won a minute with any kind of a clear run and it was interesting to hear Richard Hannon Jnr say at a Preview Evening I attended last week that the Britannia has long been the plan for this Coolmore-owned horse so, in retrospect, the manner of his defeat over an inadequate trip last time made that prep race for this prestigious handicap back up to a mile even more eye catching. MAPUTO is also drawn close to a rail in stall 3 and would be my preference of those drawn very low. Mark Johnston won this race with the top weight Fly To The Stars and believes Maputo to be one of his future stars judging by comments before and after his latest win at Newmarket when completing his hat-trick over 1m2f. He is entered for the Group 1 Sussex Stakes for example and that would also suggest dropping back to this stiff mile will not be a problem, especially given his prominent racing style. Sticking with the drawn very high or very low angle (8 of the last 14 winners were drawn no more than four places off a rail), the multiple winners SEA SHANTY and Prophet’s Pride complete the shortlist and they could easily start in the top six in the betting like 16 of the last 22 winners which is a superb return in a viciously competitive 30-runner handicap. Sea Shanty is drawn in 28 two places away from his better fancied stablemate, Wentworth, and is bidding for a fourth win on the spin following two Windsor handicap successes and another victory at Sandown last time out. He looks a tough individual and a strong traveller so the type to fare well in a big handicap, it’s more a question of whether the Handicapper has caught up with him off a 6lbs higher mark than for his latest win. The latter comment also applies to PROPHET’S PRIDE who has also won his last four races and is drawn in stall 4. This is his turf debut but Jeremy Noseda has prepped Royal Ascot winners before on the all-weather and as his last two wins have been by fairly narrow margins, the Handicapper has not hit him hard going up just 3lbs for his latest win.
5:00 TERCENTENARY STAKES
Previously run over 1m4f and also known as the Hampton Court Stakes up until 2011, this contest was upgraded from Listed status to Group 3 two years ago having been a 1m2f handicap since 2000 so only patterns from the turn of the century are of interest. A contest race chock full of progressive three-year-olds mainly consisting from the top stables, of the 13 winners since 2000, six had been contesting and getting beaten in Group races (four of which in the Dante in which Indian Chief started favourite and finished third and now wears a hood for the first time – Windheok was fifth of eight), three others contested a maiden on their last start with two running in a handicap last time out and Afsare won a Class 2 conditions race three years ago prior to winning here on his next start.
Sixteen penalised horses have run since 2000 for winning a Class 2 race or better and Afsare became the first to defy that penalty in winning (only one other had made the frame). Chopin is the only penalised runner this year with an extra 4lbs on his back for winning a Group 3 race before his probable non-staying seventh in the Derby when not helped by interference. Some will argue this will come too soon after the Derby as horses who run in that Classic have a poor record in the King Edward VII Stakes but (1) this is 2f shorter so they are not going 1m4f twice in 19 days, (2) Pisco Sour won this race two years ago after running ninth in the Derby and (3) there was no pace at Epsom this year so horses did not endure such a hard race.
Afsare justified 9/4 favouritism when defying his penalty in a race where the market leaders had come to the fore as seven of the last eight winners up until Pisco Sour’s 20/1 surprise win two years ago could be found in the first four in the betting. The German-trained Energizer was officially the best horse heading into last season’s race but being unknown to the majority of British punters, he was allowed to be sent off the 15/2 sixth-favourite of ten runners before becoming the first German-trained winner at Royal Ascot. Punters will know an awful lot more about fellow German raider, Chopin.
Not a big stat by any means but eight of the last 13 winners notched up a top-three finish last time out which is another angle we can explore as three of the quintet that didn’t were found out in Group 1 company which is easily forgivable at this lower level. Three of these contested and were unplaced in a Classic last time out; Chopin (7th in the Derby), Van Der Neer (8th in the Irish 2000 Guineas) and Shirkapour (5th in the French Derby on just his second start).
The best trainer record belongs to Aidan O’Brien who has trained two winners from his last eight runners who relies on Indian Chief who showed loads of zip when successful in his maiden before his Dante third.
SHORT LIST
Remote
Indian Chief
Shirkapour
CONCLUSION
This is the hottest Group 3 race you will see for a while. Given what a good record horses that ran in the Dante have in this race and the fact Aidan O’Brien has won this race twice recently means INDIAN CHIEF would be the trends horse of the race. His win at Leopardstown in a soft ground maiden really the caught the eye but I didn’t see any excuses for his defeat in the Dante (holds Windhoek back in fifth), form which was franked at Epsom by the winner, Libertarian. It could just be, however, he might be bumping into a serious horse in the late-developing REMOTE (unraced a two) who runs here in preference to the Britannia as John Gosden fancies he will improve for the step back up to 1m2f. That is saying something given he smashed up a good horse like Baltic Knight by six lengths over a mile who then franked that form with a cosy win at York in a Listed race on Saturday. If Remote is better at 1m2f than a mile then the others may well be playing for places and I am a little surprised he is available at 7/2 so can see him being nicely backed. Another horse fancied to improve for the step up in trip is the 2000 Guineas third, Van Der Neer. He could never get into the Irish 2000 Guineas for which he started favourite which was run at a frenetic pace which has prompted this move and he ran on late at Newmarket suggesting he would prefer further. I just don’t know if his running style means he will always look like he needs further whatever the trip though and can see him running on too late. With Chopin trying to defy a penalty I therefore prefer SHIRKAPOUR of the trio that contested a Classic last time out and he fared well for a horse having just his second career start to finish fifth in the French Derby behind Intello over around this 1m2f trip which followed a slowish start in a big field so there has got to be more to come from the Alain de Royer-Dupre-trained, Aga Khan-owned contender. The fourth, Mshawish, ran well in the St James’s Palace Stakes and I think Intello is the best three-year-old in Europe. On that form he comes out as officially top rated once the penalty has been added on to Chopin. I also have time for Elkaaayed who looked like an improver to follow when making all in a small race last time but was rather hoping he would be upped to 1m4f for the King Edward VII Stakes.
5.35 KING GEORGE V STAKES (Handicap)
With just six of the last 20 winners winning as a two-year-old, we should be looking towards the later-developing types in this 3yo handicap and preferably from one of the higher-profile yards. Therefore, over half of the field, Cap O’Rushes, Soviet Rock, Royal Skies, Shrewd, Pasaka Boy, Carry On Sydney, Blue Wave, Greeleys Love, Salutation and Red Runaway are not for me having won as two-year-olds.
The more lightly-raced the individual, the more interested we should be and also respect the value of a good run last time out as 22 of the last 24 winners either won or finished placed on their most recent start. Also, don’t be put off by maidens like Number One London or Elidor, both runners-up last time out. The 66/1 winner, Cosmic Sun, four years ago was a maiden as was Heron Bay when scoring on his handicap debut in 2007 after three defeats in maidens whilst the 1999 winner, Elmutabaki, was beaten in four maidens before winning on his first start in a handicap.
Trainers with a proven track record in this race are Sir Michael Stoute, Mark Johnston and John Gosden – in fact between them they have won 11 of the last 20 runnings between them. Of the triumvirate, it is Sir Michael Stoute’s record that most catches the eye having recorded four victories in the last 15 years including a 1-2 in2004. He runs Bold Sniper in the colours of The Queen who was unraced at two but has won his last two starts after finishing second on his debut. From 35 runners in the King George V Handicap since 1995, Mark Johnston has struck five times including with Fennell Bay last season and he has also supplied three close-up placed runners and he is four-handed this time with Royal Skies (Joe Fanning), Blue Wave (Fran Berry), Greelys Love (Jamie Spencer) and Salutation (Darren Egan) though all four won as two-year-olds which I am not particularly a fan of. John Gosden also commands respect as from his last 13 runners stretching back to 1993, he has notched up two winners and two thirds and he runs Space Ship.
Favourites didn’t have an especially good record up until Colony’s success five years ago with just one obliging in between when Carlingford won in 1989 but Brown Panther justified 4/1 favouritism in style two years ago winning by six lengths. A good place to go winner hunting has been in the 7/1-14/1 bracket, an area that has been responsible for 15 of the last 22 winners.
SHORT LIST
Bold Sniper
Space Ship
Number One London
Eshtiaal
CONCLUSION
There is always the chance a Royal runner will be over-bet at this meeting but it is hard to crab the claims of The Queen’s BOLD SNIPER who is a late-developer (never ran at two) from a top stable (that of Sir Michael Stoute whose record in this race is superb with four wins in the last 15 years) and he enters the race bang in form which has been a must in the last 25 years so all looks right for a big run on just his fourth start and the fewer runs the better. Mark Johnston also has a great record in this race but all four of his horses won as two-year-olds unlike around two-thirds of winners in the last 20 years. John Gosden’s runners in this race are also to be respected and I quite like the chance of his SPACE SHIP back to a more conventional course as he has a fair bit of size about him. He was impressive winning a maiden at the Chester May Meeting but the feeling the Handicapper was less than easy on him for that win were arguably well founded when he was only sixth on his handicap debut behind Pasaka Boy at Epsom but he has been given some relief being dropped 2lbs for that defeat. Maybe Epsom was also a problem to him given he is a big, strong horse? If so, he could be overpriced at around 14/1 if punters read too much into his last run. Two maidens have won this race in the not so distant past and the Brian Meehan-trained NUMBER ONE LONDON makes each-way appeal at around 14/1 as he has been shaping like a step up to 1m4f would suit and ran on late to finish second to the potentially very smart Maputo (has a Group 1 entry) last time out. He races off the same handicap mark today and Kieren Fallon keeps the ride having ridden him for the first time last time out. Number One London’s stablemate, ESHTIAAL, also makes the short list. After Bold Sniper, he is the second least-experienced horse in the race so theoretically open to more improvement than most and after just getting home in a messy Goodwood maiden he then followed up well in a Yarmouth handicap though his task was aided by the poor run of the second favourite.
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