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    Default my thoughts and bets for day 5 at royal ascot

    2:30 CHESHAM STAKES

    Overall, this has been a very decent race for punters as 22 of the last 24 winners could be found in the first four in the betting (ten started favourite or joint-favourite), positions currently held by Bunker, Somewhat, Friendship and Autumn Lilly so SP stats over a long period of time say we should not too far away from that quartet. Bunker was described by Richard Hannon Jnr at the Preview Evening I attended last week as the best looking horse in the yard, let alone just his two-year-olds, so his supporters will be hoping the phrase ‘handsome is as handsome does’ is at its most relevant here. As for his only run so far, he was always prominent over 6f before running on strongly to win at Haydock by 2½ lengths into a headwind so the seventh furlong should be no problem for him and this race was nominated for him straight afterwards. Like 10 of the last 15 winners, Bunker also won his sole start as have Somewhat and Autumn Lilly of others likely to start in the first four in the betting, as did the David Evans-trained Lone Warrior.

    Somewhat won his sole start just eight days ago by seven lengths (started at 5/6) at Musselburgh and will be bidding to give Mark Johnston his fourth Chesham Stakes winner. No surprise that Johnston should like this race as it’s about quality combined with stamina being over 7f this early in a two-year-old career as toughness is the hallmark of his training operation. Although out of luck with his runners in the last six years (though he was unrepresented on two of those occasions), his previous six runners heralded three winners and a third. Johnston also runs Bureau who was beaten a neck on her debut over 7f at Sandown last week and is out of the former Cheveley Park Stakes winner, Embassy. One of the two Godolphin hopes, Autumn Lily, also meets the profile of having won her only start and is likely to start in the first four in the betting and Saeed Bin Suroor won the Chesham last year with Tha’ir. Autumn Lily also started at 5/6 for her debut and was a ready winner by 2½ lengths at Haydock ten days ago and looks best of a four-strong challenge for fillies that have done well in the Chesham from few runners. In addition to supplying the runner-up and third last season and the second-place finisher in 2010, three fillies have won in the last 12 years (Seba, Whazzat and Maybe) so we have to take them seriously especially considering they are considerably outnumbered and also have the option of the Albany Stakes over a stiff 6f yet their connections still elect to run here. Despite Autumn Lilly being the most fancied Godolphin contender in the betting, it is interesting to note that William Buick rides with the stable jockey, Sylvestre De Sousa, aboard Ihtimal whose form we will know a lot more about after Thursday’s Albany Stakes as she was runner-up to Kiyoshi and then Wedding Ring who both contest the opener over 6f 24 hours earlier. Aidan O’Brien’s Friendship looks like being the other contender to start in the first four in the betting and he too has had one run but was beaten into third at Listowel on soft ground but is expected to come on plenty.

    It is questionable whether this Listed7fevent is quite the stamina test it used to be since they relayed the track but7fin mid-June must still be viewed as a test of stamina for two-year-olds so no surprise whatsoever that stamina-laden sires take over particularly when we consider that this race is restricted to progeny of stallions that had won over a minimum of 9½f. Of the last 18 winners, 50% were by offspring of stallions whose Sire Index was over 10f,though of the front four in the market, Autumn Lilly’s sire (Street Cry) has a Sire Index of 9f. Six of the other nine winners Sire Index’s were comfortably over 9f.



    SHORT LIST

    Somewhat

    Bunker

    Autumn Lily



    CONCLUSION

    In a nutshell, look for a winner of their sole start in the first four in the betting by a stallion with a Sire Index of over 10f (unless a first season sire of course) and the two horses that fit that profile head the market so let’s keep this simple. Given Mark Johnston has trained three Chesham Stakes winners then SOMEWHAT just shades Bunker on trends. In a RacingUK feature about two weeks ago on Mark Johnston, the Royal Ascot-loving Scot mentioned his Chesham horse had yet to run but he wanted to get a run into him and once Somewhat sluiced home by seven lengths at Musselburgh having been very well backed all day a few days later, it was always going to be this 7f test for him next. The fact he is by American sire, Dynaformer, would suggest he will enjoy the ground if it is as fast as Thursday when the first three home in the Norfolk Stakes all broke the 5f track record (though they have watered after racing on Thursday) and he should benefit from that initial experience as Fanning reported he was green during the race. BUNKER is also very strong on trends. It was always going to be the Chesham for him after he won well on sole start at Haydock (the third has since won at Sandown on its next start) and Richard Hannon knows what it takes having won this race in 2008 and 2009. They are drawn fairly close to each other in a 20-runner contest and I imagine Hughes will be keen to follow Fanning and try and grab him in the final furlong. The front four in the betting have such a strong record in this race so we have to respect Friendship for Aidan O’Brien whose filly, Maybe, bolted up in this race two years ago but I prefer Saeed Bin Suroor’s AUTUMN LILY for the final shortlist berth as fillies have such a good record in this race of late from few runners and she was a winner on her sole start unlike Friendship though I would have liked to have seen Godolphin’s stable jockey on her rather than their other runner, Ihtimal. Once punters latch on to the fact that De Sousa is on the latter and if her form is franked in Friday’s Albany Stakes, I can see their other filly, Ihtimal, being nicely supported.



    3:05 HARDWICKE STAKES

    Harbinger and Await The Dawn proved themselves to be a cut above the opposition in 2010 and 2011 winning easily at odds-on and Sea Moon completed the hat-trick for favourites striking at 3/1 last season and it would appear that Mount Athos will be sent off favourite to give punters four successful market leaders on the spin in the Hardwicke. I don’t doubt that if all three had carried a Group 1 penalty they would have still won but that is irrelevant now that the Group 1 penalty for this race was dispensed with last season. The fact still remains, however, that only Assatis in 1990 was a former Group 1 winner though that statistic is also irrelevant this year as no Group 1 winners take their chance. As for Group 2 or Group 3 winners yet to win at the highest level, they have been responsible for 16 of the last 18 Hardwicke Stakes winners so that would appear to bey the way to go and they are represented by Aiken (Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly), Dandino (Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes and Group 3 September Stakes), Mount Athos (Group 3 Ormonde Stakes), Noble Mission (Group 3 Gordon Stakes), Thomas Chippendale (Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes) and Universal (Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes and Group3 John Porter Stakes). Of that sextet only Mount Athos and Universal have won a Group race this season which is something that eight of the last 11 winners had achieved.

    The Coronation Cup has been the best guide signposting 7 of the last 15 winners, all of which finished between third and sixth, but that Group 1 race is unrepresented this season as is the Huxley Stakes which has been another fine recent guiude. That leaves the John Porter Stakes as the best relevant guide this year, a race in which the winner also has a good record here with two of the last six (Maraahel and Harbinger) also going on to win. Universal just for the better of Quiz Mistress with Noble Mission (who looked anything but willing to put it all in) back in third in this season’s renewal.

    Trainers to note are Sir Michael Stoute (has supplemented Sir John Hawkwood after two impressive handicap victories) with as many as seven Hardwicke Stakes winners between 1996-2012, Mark Johnston (Universal) with four previous Hardwicke winners and Saeed Bin Suroor (Songcraft) gunning for his third win in the race.



    SHORT LIST

    Mount Athos

    Universal

    Thomas Chippendale



    CONCLUSION

    MONT ATHOS has plenty going for him bidding to become the fourth winning favourite in as many years if he keeps hold of his position at the head of the market. One of just two Group-race winners earlier in the season like 8 of the last 11 winners, he looked all class winning the Ormonde Stakes and would surely have gone close in the Gold Cup if they headed down that route instead. The reason he didn’t is because the Melbourne Cup, in which he was a fast-finishing fifth last season, is his big aim again and Australian Handicappers tend to allocate a horse’s weight judged on quality of race won rather than form (bizarre I know but there we go) so better for his chances in November if he wins a Group 2 at Royal Ascot rather than a Group 1. I appreciate he had nothing to beat in the Ormonde after his only serious market rival ran a stinker but the manner in which he attacked and travelled through the race suggested he could be even better this season at the age of six and I think he will take a deal of beating here to end Luca Cumani ‘s long run without a Royal Ascot winner. As UNIVERSAL is the only other Group race winner this season, he has to be respected especially as that came in the John Porter Stakes like two of the last six winners and Mark Johnston has already won this race four times. Since that Newbury win he has won again in an admittedly weak running of the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes where he made all to beat Dandino by a neck. The level of form of those two wins is only 3lbs below that of Mount Athos (top rated) but he is so game that I am sure he can dig deeper and improve again if a better horse came to challenge. Ektihaam is the main market rival to Mount Athos having slammed Thomas Chippendale by six lengths over course and distance in a Listed race in May having previously got to within 1½ lengths of Al Kazeem in the Gordon Richards Stakes over 1m2f. Al Kazeem needed that run and his class got him through so don’t read that form at face value. However, Ektihaam came into his own when upped to 1m4f for the first time but if he is to be successful he would become only the third winner in 19 years not to have won a Group race earlier in his career. Aiken represents John Gosden but his Royal Ascot seasonal debutants in pattern race have been falling comfortably short at this meeting so far (Elusive Kate and The Fugue) so I expect he will build on what he achieves today. With seven wins already in this race it was an eye opener to see Sir Michael Stoute supplement Sir John Hawkwood after handicap successes at the Chester and Dante Meetings in May. His other seven winners had been proven pattern performers so whether he is good enough would be my main concern. I don’t think Dandino is quite good enough or Noble Mission is brave enough but I can see a much better run from THOMAS CHIPPENDALE than when easily beaten by Ektihaam as I take the view he was being brought along steadily by Sir Henry Cecil to peak for this race having won the King Edward VII Stakes at this meeting last year so he makes some each-way appeal at a double figure price. Lady Cecil won the Ribblesdale with Riposte and the form of the stable since Sir Henry’s passing has been terrific. The booking of Johhny Murtagh catches the eye.



    3:45 DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES

    Previous Royal Ascot form has been an excellent pointer in a very-hard-to-nail Group 1 sprint as ten of the last 17 winners had been placed at worst at this meeting before. Take the 25/1 surprise winner two years ago and probable favourite this year, Society Rock, for example as he finished second in this race 12 months earlier at 50/1. Whether it is theBerkshirecourse that brings the best out of such contenders or the fact their connections have readied them for this particular week is a difficult one to weigh up but I suspect there is something in both arguments. Four of the last ten winners ran in the King’s Stand Stakes on Tuesday so it is surprising no contenders from that 5f sprint this year take their chance.

    Outside of previous Royal Ascot form, the Duke Of York Stakes won by Society Rock by a head from Lethal Force has been the best guide and he did particularly well to win being the first to do so with a Group 1 penalty. Since 1992, eight Diamond Jubilee Stakes winners ran in that Group 2 event on the Knavesmire over the same trip with five finishing first or second before striking here. There were plenty of eye catchers behind Society Rock at York, notably the third, Gordon Lord Byron, who raced away from the main action also under a Group 1 penalty and being a 7f winner at the highest level then you might expect him to appreciate Ascot’s stiffer 6f more than York, and Maarek (5th) who also raced away from the main action though soft ground looks important to him. Hawkeyethenoo also ran a terrific race in fourth after enduring a troubled passage. The favourite, Mince, was disappointing back in tenth but she probably needed the run and was too fresh too early.

    Starspangledbanner put an end to the 13-year losing run of the market leader when winning as 13/2 joint-favourite in 2010 season and Black Caviar only just scraped home at odds of 1/6 last season so this has been a race to chance some fancy-priced horses lately as eight of the last 13 winners started at a double-figure price making this by far the hardest of the Group 1 race at the Royal Meeting. Quite why this should be the case is surprising because Group and Listed race winners with a victory earlier in the season have won 12 of the last 18 renewals. The only Group or Listed race winners this season are Society Rock, Maarek, the American raider, Havelock, and Zanetto though Gordon Lord Byron won a conditions race.

    It is interesting that Sir Henry Cecil believed that6fatAscotraces more like6.5fso maybe there is something in the fact that only Kingsgate Native had not previously won over6fprior to his Golden Jubilee victory since 1990. There can a huge difference between five and six furlongs at top level for many horses, as both trips have their specialists and the majority of horses more at home over the minimum trip tend to get caught out over an extra220 yardsat Group 1 standard. I wouldn’t be mad keen on a seasonal debutant as 40 years have expired since we last witnessed one of those which is against Soul who was only beaten 1¼ lengths into fourth by Black Caviar in this race last year.



    SHORT LIST

    Gordon Lord Byron

    Society Rock

    Mince

    Sea Siren



    CONCLUSION

    Having made the case for previous Ascot form and highlighted the fine record of the Duke Of York Stakes as a guide then SOCIETY ROCK is an obvious player having run well in this race three times and was successful on his seasonal debut at York. With more luck he could have won the last three runnings of the Diamond Jubilee as he bumped into a tartar from Australia when second at 50/1 three years ago before winning at 25/1 the following year and I think he would have beaten Black Caviar last season if he didn’t walk out of the stalls and he was only beaten two lengths. Usually he needs a run or two to put him straight for Royal Ascot but not this year as he won the Duke Of York on his seasonal debut and, in doing so, became the first winner in the history of that race to defy a Group 1 penalty in what looked an above-average renewal. His profile would suggest he will improve again now that he has had a run but I am led to believe by paddock watchers he was properly wound up for York so don’t go expecting as much improvement as usual, if any, from his run before Royal Ascot to the big day itself. All six of Society Rock’s career wins have come over this trip of 6f. The horse I like from the Duke Of York and who I was banging on about on Twitter when he was 20/1 for the Diamond Jubilee afterwards is the Irish raider, GORDON LORD BYRON. Not only because he put up a fine run from under a penalty well away from the action down the centre of the course but because his trainer commented he had left something to work on and Ascot’s stiffer 6f should suit better than York’s faster 6f given he is a Group 1 winner over 7f. At 6/1 now, he is correctly priced and rates as a big player despite his lack of Ascot form. He has run once here finishing in mid division in last season’s Wokingham but he has improved bundles since then. Maarek also ran well from away from the pace in the Duke Of York and won the big sprint here on Champions Day but unless it rains I would be worried about the ground for him and wouldn’t be surprised if they took him out on Good-to-Firm. One place ahead of Maarek at York after meeting trouble in running was Hawkeyethenoo who also has Ascot form having won the Victoria Cup in 2011 and was second to Maarek in the Group 2 here in Champions Day. With a clear passage he would have gone close to beating Society Rock at York so certainly enters the mix at a double figure price. Slade Power is considered by some to be potentially better than the King’s Stand winner Sole Power for the same owner/trainer and is a dangerous floater as his seasonal debut looked needed and he was given too much to do before running on well to be beaten half a length. MINCE was considered to be one of the potential stars of the sprinting scene this season but she has run disappointingly on both starts, notably when beaten at odds-on in a Listed race last time as her Duke Of York run was put down to not being fit enough. After her second defeat Roger Charlton commented she would miss Royal Ascot but here she is however and I think she is dangerous to rule out if bouncing back to her best under the man of the moment, James Doyle, and with an Ascot record of 2-2. The Australian mare SEA SIREN is owned by Coolmore so Ryan Moore rides and ex-Aussies for those owners have a great record at Royal Ascot with very few runners with wins for Haradasun, So You Think and also Starspangledbanner in this race. I am no expert on Australian form but having been beaten in her last six races suggests she isn’t in their very top league this season but she would have a major chance if bouncing back to her 2012 form when she won three Group 1 races and we all know about the quality of Australian sprinters who have won this race twice fairly recently.



    4:25 WOKINGHAM STAKES (Handicap)

    The draw will be a big topic of conversation and maybe it is worth noting that in the last 25 years only six winners were drawn in the middle segment in stalls 10-19, however, Deacon Blues (went on to be Champion Sprinter so in retrospect was a good thing from any draw) and Dandy Boy both overcame that factor to win the last two renewals. On the age front, stick to four and five-year-olds that have won 12 of the last 14 runnings. A three-year-old has not won since Bel Byou triumphed in 1987 though, in fairness, they only average a couple of runners per renewal, if that, and just Glass Office takes his chance this time for the Classic generation. Looking at the older horses, although many sprinters improve as they get older, only Selhurstparkflyer in 1997 has struck for horses aged over six since the race’s inception in 1896 so the elder brigade can easily be overlooked with a degree of confidence namely Royal Rock (9), Regal Parade (9), Ancient Cross (9), Hitchens (8), Palace Moon (8), Secret Witness (7) and Zero Money (7).

    In-form horses have very much held sway with 14 of the last 16 winners finishing in the first four last time (one of those that didn’t was Laddies Poker Two who was coming off a 610-day absence) and it has also proven wise to look to lightly-raced types as far as the current season is concerned with nine of the last 12 winners running no more than twice.

    With nine of the last 16 winners carrying 9st 2lbs or over, humping a biggish weight should not be seen as a negative, indeed, Baltic King won with 9st 10lbs on his back in 2006 and the top weight four years ago only found one too good beaten less than a length. Five of the last six winners were officially rated between 95-100 which I thought would be a useful angle but brings in too many this year I’m afraid from Number 14, York Glory, right down to Number 30, Jamesie.



    SHORT LIST

    Rex Imperator

    Gabriel’s Lad

    York Glory

    Poole Harbour

    Khubala



    CONCLUSION

    Trends-wise we ideally want a horse aged no older than six (no winner since 1997) but preferably four or five that finished in the first four last time out (like 14 of the last 16 winners) drawn either high or low (19 of the last 25 winners drawn between 1-9 or 20+) so take one step forward Elusivity, Mass Rally, Duke Of Firenze, York Glory, Rex Imperator, Khubala, Gabriel’s Lad and Poole Harbour. If you just want trends to chop that down to five horses then take the last-named quintet as they are officially rated between 95-100 like five of the last six winners. REX IMPERATOR would be my main fancy for William Haggas who does so well in top handicaps and won this race with Yeast and he would have won on his first start for the yard since moving from David Nicholls if held onto for longer at Doncaster over 7f when an unfancied 28/1 shot but he moved so smoothly he found himself in front too soon and found one to beat him. Back to 6f here should be a help on that evidence and his trainer has commented he will be delivered late. GABRIEL’S LAD has two other factors going for him in addition to meeting the key trends in that he is a course and distance winner and he has only had one start this season as nine of the last 12 winners had run no more twice earlier in the campaign (a stat that is also a positive for Rex Imperator). Gabriel’s Lad sole outing this season was a fine one finishing second in a warm handicap at the Newmarket Guineas Meeting when well backed in the morning and if he is drawn on what turns out to be the right side (far side along with Rex Imperator and York Glory), he is a serious player. Just behind Gabriel’s Lad in that Newmarket handicap was POOLE HARBOUR for Richard Hannon who is due a slice of luck this week after the first three days and I like his each-way chances most of the 25/1+ shots drawn low having been toughened up since a gelding operation. Second or third on all four starts this season, he should run his race again and was a good third behind KHUBALA last time out. That victory for Khubala in what was a competitive sprint handicap at Windsor gives him a 5lbs penalty to get in the Wokingham on Good-to-Firm that was considered faster than ideal so his chance would increase if it rains a little more and if the overnight watering on Thursday has had a notable impact. YORK GLORY has had more runs this season than most Wokingham winners but has yet to run a bad race so an each-way case can be argued for him. After he won at Pontefract in April, Kevin Ryan commented he could be a Wokingham horse and they have turned to Jamie Spencer who rides the straight course at Ascot so well.



    5:00 DUKE OF EDINBURGH HANDICAP

    Last-time-out winners hold the call having been responsible for half of the last 18 winners which is an excellent return given they supply, on average, around 25% of the total runners so that’s an immediate tick for the French raider Hammerfest representing John Hammond who does well with his British raids, Rye House for Sir Michael Stoute who was a convincing winner at the Dante Meeting, Deia Sunrise who will do well to win on his seasonal debut in a race as competitive as this, Highland Castle who pounced late at Newmarket two weeks ago, Ustura who got home by a nose at Windsor for Godolphin and Mark Johnston’s Fennell Bay who gets in off bottom weight under his 4lbs penalty for winning at Thirsk four days ago and who won the King George V Handicap at this meeting last season just five days after winning at Sandown so is likely to ready again to strike whilst the iron is hot.

    Up until 2006 the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes had been a punter’s handicap with 14 consecutive winners going the way of a contender from the front six in the betting but it has got tricky lately as four of the last seven winners have started at 12/1+. The favourite, however, did come out on top last season for only the second time in two decades. Maybe look to those hunting up the market leader, notably the second, third and fourth favourites that have won 11 of the last 18 runnings.

    Just two horses older than five have been successful in the last 24 years which is enough to put me off Hanoverian Baron (8), Hammerfest (6), Art Scholar (6) and Beaumont’s Party (6). It is the four-year-olds that hold the edge over five-year-olds in terms of winners but they have a very similar strike rate as they outnumber their rivals so there is no real edge picking between the pair. Weight stats have been largely irrelevant now the handicap is much more condensed.

    Fox Hunt gave Mark Johnston his third Duke Of Edinburgh winner two years ago following on from previous triumphs in 2001 and four years ago where he also supplied the runner-up for good measure so his Fennell Bay is worthy of a second name check and he also runs Sir Graham Wade. Sir Michael Stoute has saddled four winners and three seconds from his last 14 runners so Rye House (Ryan Moore) and Opinion (Richard Hughes) are also worth a second look.



    SHORT LIST

    Fennell Bay

    Ustura

    Rye House

    Highland Castle



    CONCLUSION

    FENNELL BAY won at Royal Ascot last season just five days after winning at Sandown so his win at Thirsk four days will spark plenty of interest in his chances of doing likewise over the same 1m4f trip as his gutsy King George V Stakes success as that win and the resulting penalty was enough to see him squeeze in as the bottom weight for Mark Johnston who has won this handicap three times before. RYE HOUSE is the likely favourite for Sir Michael Stoute whose Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap record is also far from shabby with four wins and three seconds from his last 14 runners. Although he has been raised 9lbs for his easy win at the Dante Meeting by 3½ lengths on soft ground (five of his six runs have been on soft going but he was only beaten a head on only run on better surface), he won with so much authority that he is probably still ahead of the Handicapper and Moore prefers him to his stablemate, Opinion, who has chances himself on his close-up third in a good handicap at Newmarket on his seasonal return. Sticking with the last-time-out winners given their 50% strike rate in the last 18 years and USTURA is interesting for Godolphin. He may have only scraped home by a nose on his seasonal return but he met trouble in running so can be marked up and that was just his fourth start so he is open to more improvement than most and he has only gone up 4lbs. Described the yard’s Travelling Head Lad as “a weak and immature horse” last year who is a late developer and wants Good ground, he has to be shortlist material. HIGHLAND CASTLE received a terrific hold-up ride from Liam Keniry to win at Newmarket last time by a neck so has only gone up 5lbs which also means we need to take his chance seriously. Previously last of five in a Listed race but he appeals as a horse to appreciate coming off a strong pace in a big handicap than contesting better-class tactical races in small fields and David Elsworth has always held a high view of him even trying his luck in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup two seasons ago.



    5:35 QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES

    The first point to make is this year’s renewal lacks real depth outside of last season’s runner-up, Shahwardi, for the French-based stable of Alan de Royer-Dupre. A quality piece of form on the course beforehand has been useful so do bear in mind that 12 of the last 20 winners had finished in the top half-dozen in any of the three big staying races at the meeting before (Gold Cup, Ascot Stakes and Queen Alexandra Stakes). Shahwardi was second beaten seven lengths by Simenon in this race last year with Seaside Sizzler, Riptide and Cloudy Spirit back in sixth, seventh and thirteenth, American Spin was fifth in this race four years ago and is blinkered for the first time, Junior won the Ascot Stakes three years ago and was pulled out of that same race on the day on Tuesday but has looked far from in love with racing over jumps in the winter and Yazdi was seventh in last season’s Queen’s Vase.

    Given its extreme distance for a Flat race of 2m5½f, very few runners truly stay the Queen Alexandra Stakes so it is generally uncompetitive and therefore offers the punter a real chance of finishing the meeting on a high so fancied horses usually come to the fore and 18 of the last 22 winners started at no bigger than 8/1. Simenon easily justified favouritism last season having won the Ascot Stakes on the opening day of the meeting continuing the strong performance of the leading fancies as the first two in the market filled the first two positions the previous season and, prior to 2010, the previous three runnings witnessed the first four home start in the first five in the betting, the favourite beat the third-favourite and the 1-2-3 in the betting occupying all three place positions so don’t go looking too far beyond the obvious.

    As this is a Class 2 affair, it is not the classiest event at the Royal Meeting but what has been noticeable of late is that winners had been regularly contesting higher-quality races, in fact, 11 of the last 18 winners had been contesting Group and Listed races at some point in their career.



    SHORT LIST

    Shahwardi

    Cul Baire



    CONCLUSION

    Last year’s runner-up SHAHWARDI is comfortably clear on ratings in, quite frankly, a bad renewal and he should hose up if in the same form that saw him run Simenon to seven lengths in last year’s race. The very, very slight niggle is that he is a seven-year-old and horses aged seven and older failed to register a win since 1990 until Caracciola won as 12-year-old four years ago but (a) he is rated as much 7lbs clear of the Chiberta King (second top rated), (b) we know he stays which is ultra critical and (c) being English-owned despite being trained in France, you can bet your bottom dollar he has been solely trained for this race having finished second last year and his owner clearly fancies a fairytale as Frankie Dettori has been booked for the first time, which is a strong combination to offset his age, though he is hardly ancient. Since then he has finished third in two Group 2 races in France and even won a £100K handicap in Australia! His only run this season was a last-of-six effort 27 days ago which rather smacked as a get-him-back-on-the-racecourse exercise to blow away the cobwebs in a bid to go one better in the Queen Alexandra Stakes than last year. CUL BAIRE could be the fly in the ointment for Jim Bolger. More of a gut instinct shortlist selection as on form he has 12lbs to find with the second top-rated Chiberta King (beaten 3¾ lengths into fifth in the Goodwood Cup last season) but the very fact alone that Bolger fancies a crack is of much interest and he arrives here off the back of a win over 1m6f at Leopardstown last time out. He is entered in the July Sales at Newmarket so perhaps they see this as a shop window to sell him with a view to going hurdling in which case they would have to fancy him to run a big race to get the asking price up. No Heretic was well punted for a good handicap at 1m4f last time and finished well to be beaten half a length but he was keen early which would be worry over an extra mile.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    evilsatan (21st June 2013),  neilb (21st June 2013)  


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    Default Re: my thoughts and bets for day 5 at royal ascot

    Well done Ganjers! Top work for the week.
    "Your proposition may be good. But let's have one thing understood
    Whatever it is, I'm against it! And even when you've changed it Or condensed it
    I'm against it!"
    A top man

    Thanks to DelTrotter

    ganjaman2 (22nd June 2013)  


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    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: my thoughts and bets for day 5 at royal ascot

    well thats ascot for another year made a few £ but nothing to write home about,going to have a break for a week or so to recharge my batteries i will still put up trends ect as when possible for the big races thanks for the comments regarding my write ups guys

    back-soon ganjaman

    5 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (23rd June 2013),  chesser (24th June 2013),  evilsatan (23rd June 2013),  neilb (23rd June 2013),  Sanj[UK] (23rd June 2013)  


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    Default Re: my thoughts and bets for day 5 at royal ascot

    missed these end up going thorpe park..roll on next year

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