OLD NEWTON CUP TRENDS 2013

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The Bet365 Old Newton Cup is a 1M 4F class 2 handicap which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 6th July. The Duke OF Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot has proved a key trial, with 4 of the last 7 winners coming from that race. Luca Cumani has been the trainer to follow in the race, winning it 3 times in last 10 years.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 0-0-2

4yo: 7-10-72

5yo: 2-6-32

6yo: 0-4-22

7yo+: 1-3-24

4yos have won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 47.4% of total runners.



Weights

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-21

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-9-37

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-5-52

Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-6-42

9 of 10 winners carried between 8-6 and 9-3

Top weight: 09020005309 (0-2-11)



Official Ratings

Horses rated 100 or higher: 1-6-33

Horses rated 90 to 99: 8-13-84

Horses rated 89 or less: 1-4-35

9 of 10 winners were officially rated 89 to 97



Recent/Past Form

5 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 93+ last time out

9 of 10 winners had had 6 to 16 career starts

9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that year

10 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps in GB & Ire

10 of 10 winners had won 3 or fewer handicaps

5 of 10 winners had won at Haydock (other 5 were having first course start)

10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F

8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F+

8 of 10 winners had won on flat at no higher than class 3

9 of 10 winners had won at a left handed track



Other Races

James Howard Handicap winner (Al Saham): 71 (1-0-2)

Bet Victor.com Handicap winner (Opinion): 01 (1-0-2)

Melrose Stakes winner (Guarantee): 4 (0-1-1)

Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes winner (Opinion): 265 (0-1-3)

4 of 10 winners (4 of last 7) ran in the Duke Of Edinburgh last time, finishing 7265

3 of 10 winners ran in a handicap at the Dante meeting, finishing 906



Trainers

Luca Cumani (3-3-8) has gained 3 winners & 3 places from 8 runners since 2003.

Elaine Burke (0-1-1), Ian Williams (0-1-2), Tony Newcombe (0-1-2), John Gosden (0-1-3), Amanda Perrett (0-1-3) and Michael Stoute (0-1-6) have all saddled 1 placed finisher.

Mark Johnston (0-1-14) has a very poor record in this race, having seen just 1 of his 14 runners in the past 10 years make the frame.



Draw

Horses drawn top 5: 5-9-50

Horses drawn middle stalls: 3-2-52

Horses drawn bottom 5 stalls: 2-12-50

No very strong trends around the draw, though those drawn high have had a slight edge.



Racing Style

5 of 10 winners led or raced with leaders

5 of 10 winners raced in midfield

This has not been a race where you want to concede too much ground, so horses that are kept closer to the pace are preferred.



Price

9 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1

No major trend on the prices, though there has been no winner priced over 16/1 since 2003.

Favourites (2-5-14) have won the race twice in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 4

· Carrying 8-8 to 9-3

· Officially rated 89 to 97

· Run in 12 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 3)

· Posted an RPR of 93 or higher last time out

· Ran 1 to 4 times in 2013

· Course winner (or having first start at Haydock)

· Won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F

· Won at no higher than class 3 level

· Ran in Duke Of Edinburgh and/or a handicap at Dante meeting

· Trained by Luca Cumani

· Tends to race prominently