KING GEORGE VI & QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES TRENDS

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The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (sponsored by Betfair) takes place at Ascot on the 27th July and is one of the highlights on the British Flat horse racing calendar. Run over a mile and a half, this year’s race see’s 2 of the main contenders, St Nicholas Abbey & Cirrus Des Aigles, attempt to become the first winner aged over 4 this century.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

3yo: 2-2-11

4yo: 8-6-40

5yo: 0-7-25

6yo+: 0-1-10

8 of 10 winners were aged 4

Horses aged 5+ have not won this in past 10 years despite having accounted for over 40% of total runners.

Since 2000 there have been three 3yo winners, 2 won the Irish Derby on previous start, while other won the King Edward at Ascot on previous start.



Gender

Danedream became the first female winner of this race last year since Charter in 1983. The other 4 fillies/mares since 2003 have all been unplaced.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 120+ last time

10 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season

9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception placed on both starts that year)

10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

8 of 10 winners had previously won 1M 4F (both exceptions had won a 1M 2F group 1 that season and were having their first try at the trip)

7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions won a 1M 4F group 2 at Royal Ascot by over 3 lengths on previous start)

7 of 10 winners (last 7) had won a group 1 or 2 by 3+ lengths

10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race



Other Races

That season

Irish Derby winner (Trading Leather): 12 (1-1-2)

Grosser Preis Der Badischen Unternehmer winner (Novellist): 1 (1-0-1)

Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Battle Of Marengo): 1 (1-0-1)

Ormonde Stakes winner (Mount Athos): 813 (1-0-3)

John Porter Stakes winner (Universal): 631 (1-0-3)

Coronation Cup winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 695333 (0-2-6)

Al Maktoum Challenge R3 winner (Hunter's Light): 02 (0-1-2)

Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud winner (Novellist): 43 (0-1-2)

Brigadier Gerard winner (Mukhadram): 72 (0-1-2)

Highest placed Epsom Derby finisher: 355 (0-1-3)

Dubai Sheema Classic winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 203F (0-1-4)

Jockey Club Stakes winner (Universal): 46 (0-0-2)

Princess Of Wales' Stakes winner (Universal): 8797 (0-0-4)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup on penultimate start, finishing 4121

3 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales last time out, finishing 121

2 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke last time, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in Grand Prix de Saint Cloud last time, finishing 24

2 of 10 winners won the Prix Ganay that season

Previous season

Highest placed finisher from previous year's Arc: 213133321 (3-5-9)

Beresford Stakes winner (Battle Of Marengo): 1 (1-0-1)

Geoffrey Freer Stakes winner (Mount Athos): 02 (0-1-2)

Hong Kong Vase winner (Red Cadeaux): 5046 (0-0-4)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Arc, finishing 411

3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 112

2 of 10 winners ran in the International Stakes at York, finishing 44

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Gordon Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Niel, finishing 21



Trainers

British-trained runners: 4-13-56

Irish-trained runners: 4-2-17

French-trained runners: 1-1-7

German-trained runners: 1-0-2

Other: 0-1-4

Aidan O’Brien (2-1-12) trained Galileo to win this in 2001, he trained 2 of the last 6 winners, both were 4yos who had finished in first 2 in the Prix Ganay, Tatts Gold Cup and Prince Of Wales in 3 runs that season.

Saeed Bin Suroor (1-3-10) trained the winner for 3 years running between 1997 & 1999. His last winner came in 2004 with Doyen.

Mark Johnston (0-0-1) has seen 2 of his 3 runners since 1999 make the places.

Jim Bolger has saddled just 2 runners since 1990, a 66/1 unplaced finisher in 1993 & St Jovite in 1992 who won this following an Irish Derby win, like his entry this year, Trading Leather.



Price

All 10 winners were sent off 9/1 or shorter

Favourites (6-1-10) have won 6 of last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 3.98 over past 10 years.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 4 (or a 3yo that won the Irish Derby)

· Had 2 to 4 runs this season (and won a race in 2013)

· Finished first 3 last time, posting an RPR of 120+

· Run in last 50 days

· Won a group 1 (or won Royal Ascot group 2 last time)

· Won over 1M 4F (or group 1 winner having first try at this trip)

· Finished in first 4 in 2013 Tattersalls Gold Cup

· Ran in Prince Of Wales, Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, Irish Derby or Hardwicke last time

· Finished in first 2 in Arc, Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes in 2012

· Trained by Aidan O’Brien

· Priced shorter than 10/1