IRISH OAKS TRENDS 2013

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The Darley Irish Oaks takes place at the Curragh on Saturday 20th July. The last 7 renewals have gone to Aidan O’Brien or British-based runners and 6 of last 7 winners had run in the Epsom equivalent.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

Race for 3yos



Breeding

6 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 9.6f or higher

3 of 4 exceptions had a dam-sire with a stamina index of 10.6f or higher



Recent Form

8 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season

9 of 10 winners (last 9) ran in the last 45 days

9 of 10 winners finished in the first two last time out (exception 4th in Epsom Oaks)

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time (2 exceptions did so on second last start)

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 114+ last time out

7 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (1 exception was 2nd in Epsom Oaks and another exception had won 1000 Guineas)

7 of 10 winners finished in first 2 in a group 1 (3 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1)

The last 10 winners had collectively run 29 times that season before taking this, finishing in the first 4 on all 29 of those runs.



Other Races

Epsom Oaks winner (Talent): 1121154 (4-1-7)

Record of 2nd, 3rd & 4th in the Oaks: 440373151349312 (3-4-15)

Tweenhills Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Talent): 1 (1-0-1)

Ribblesdale Stakes winner (Riposte): 624023 (0-2-6)

saxon-gate.com E B F Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Secret Gesture): 2 (0-1-1)

Lingfield Oaks Trial winner (Secret Gesture): 3 (0-1-1)

Salsabil Stakes winner (Alive Alive Oh): 46 (0-0-2)

7 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 1122114

3 of 10 ran in the Musidora, finishing 241

2 of 10 winners ran in Montrose Stakes as 2yos, finishing 31

5 of last 8 Epsom Oaks winners to run in this have triumphed. The 3 winners of the Epsom Oaks to taste defeat at the Curragh all did so on significantly softer ground in the Irish Oaks than they’d encountered at Epsom.



Trainers

British trained runners: 5-8-28

Irish trained runners: 4-8-74 (non-O’Brien Irish runners: 2-2-46)

French-trained runners: 1-1-2

Aidan O’Brien (3-6-28) has won 3 of the last 7 runnings of this race and the record of his first string in the past 10 years reads 3-2-10.

Alain De Royer-Dupre (1-0-1) won the race with Shawanda in 2005.

The Cecil yard (0-2-2) has been responsible for 3 previous winners of this (1988, 89 & 99) and both their runners in past 10 years have been placed.

Jim Bolger (0-1-9) last won the race with Margarula in 2002. He went close with Banimpire in 2011 but his other 8 runners in past 10 years have all been unplaced.

John Oxx (0-1-10) won back to back runnings in 97 & 98 but has only gained 1 place from 10 runners since 2003.



Racing Tactics

7 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division or in rear

3 of 10 winners tracked leaders

Record of front runners: 2476702097 (though 6 were recognised pacemakers)



Price

9 of 10 winners (last 9) came from first 2 in the betting & priced 5/1 or below.

Favourites (5-1-10) have won 5 of last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 0.35 over past 10 years.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Finished 1st or 2nd last time, in past 45 days

· Posted an RPR of 114+ last time

· Run 1 to 4 times in 2013 & finished in first 4 on all starts

· Won over at least 1M 2F

· Finished in first 2 in Epsom Oaks

· Finished in first 4 in the Musidora

· Won or placed in a group 1 (or having first run in group 1)

· Hold up horses favored (avoid front runners)

· Trained by in Britain or by Aidan O’Brien

· From first 2 in the betting (no bigger than 5/1)